A high-stakes meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart this week could determine whether Moscow launches an attack on neighboring Ukraine, the top U.S. diplomat said Sunday.
Blinken told NBC's "Meet the Press" that he agreed to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Feb. 24, provided Moscow has not yet invaded its neighbor.
Asked if the meeting proceeds it would mean no invasion but if it's canceled that would mean a war has begun, Blinken said: "That's a pretty good summary."
"It's my responsibility to everything I can to try diplomatically to prevent a war," he said, adding the meeting is on still on for now.
NATO officials are scrambling to find a diplomatic solution as a continued buildup of Russia troops and military exercises on Ukraine's northern border continues to raise fears of an imminent invasion. About 150,000 Russian troops have massed on three sides of Ukraine's borders while Moscow extended military drills that were due to end Sunday in neighboring Belarus.
According to reports, Russian commanders have been given orders to go forward with an invasion of Ukraine. Both ABC News and CBS News reported the development, based on US intelligence sources, on Sunday.
President Joe Biden is set to call a meeting of his National Security Council on Sunday, while Vice President Kamala Harris wrapped up a visit to the Munich Security Conference, where she met on the sidelines with NATO leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told "Fox News Sunday" any invasion before Blinken's meeting would mean that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an attack with "diplomatic options left on the table."
"They won't have an excuse that merits any sort of credibility about why they went forward when there was a diplomatic path forward," he said. "They will choose this war."
Despite the last-ditch efforts, Blinken said U.S. intelligence about how Russia would manufacture provocations in the lead-up to an invasion appears to be happening, including false-flag operations taking place in Eastern Ukraine.
"All of this seems to be following the script that I laid out at the United Nations Security Council, that President Biden talked about to the nation just the other day," he said.
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No sanctions before attack, US officials say
U.S. officials pushed back on Zelenskyy's criticisms of western leaders for withholding new sanctions on Russia if all signs are pointing to a potential invasion of Ukraine.
Kirby told Fox News the sanctions send a very strong message to Putin but are meant to be a deterrent.
"If you punish somebody for something they haven't done yet, then they might as well just go ahead and do it. So we're holding that in advance and we're hoping that could affect the calculus of Mr. Putin," he said.
Blinken echoed that sentiment on NBC's "Meet the Press," emphasizing there's still an option for Putin to pull back from any plans to invade.
"Until the tanks are rolling, and the planes are in the air, that we're going to try everything we possibly can to get President Putin to reverse the decision we believe he's made," he said. "We're trying to prevent a war. As soon as you trigger the sanctions, of course, any deterrent effect they may have is gone."
Zelesnkyy aired his frustrations to western leaders at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, urging allies to impose sanctions if an attack is imminent.
"You're telling me that it's 100% that the war will start in a couple of days. Then what (are you) waiting for?" he asked.
Both Blinken and Kirby underscored NATO allies are prepared to impose punishing sanctions as part of a unified response should an invasion occur, an unintended consequence of Putin's gamble on Ukraine.
"The one thing that Putin says he doesn't want is exactly what he's getting: a very strong, unified NATO on his Western flank," he said.
Russia delays exit of troops from Belarus
Russia extended military drills near Ukraine's northern borders Sunday amid increased fears that two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between soldiers and Russa-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine could spark an invasion.
The exercises, originally set to end Sunday, brought a sizable contingent of Russian forces to neighboring Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north. The presence of the Russian troops raised concern that they could be used to sweep down on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
The announcement came from the defense minister of Belarus, who said the two countries would "continue testing the response forces."
Harris acknowledges potential war
In Germany, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Sunday emphasized the significance of the moment that Europe faces.
“We’re talking about the potential for war in Europe. I mean, let’s really take a moment to understand the significance of what we’re talking about,” Harris told reporters before her return to Washington. Europe, she said, might be at its most perilous moment since the end of World War II.
In a burst of diplomacy at the annual Munich Security Conference, Harris tried to make the case to American allies that rapidly escalating tensions on the Ukraine-Russian border meant European security was under “direct threat” and there should be unified support for economic penalties if the Kremlin invades its neighbor.
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A top European Union official, Charles Michel, said Sunday that "the big question remains: does the Kremlin want dialogue?"
"We cannot forever offer an olive branch while Russia conducts missile tests and continues to amass troops," Michel, the president of the European Council, said at the Munich Security Conference. He said, "One thing is certain: if there is further military aggression, we will react with massive sanctions."
Finnish president: Putin 'wants to be very decisive'
Finland’s president warned Putin is using a “two steps forward, one back” strategy in deploying Russian troops near Ukraine that “increasing tensions” and risking war.
“So far, I would say that he has behaved in a way that is very difficult to predict but that might be also intentional,” said Finish President Sauli Niinistö during a Sunday interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Finland, which borders Russia, is not a member of NATO and has had its own complicated and tense relationship with Moscow for over a century. Niinistö has led the Nordic state and European Union member for a decade, during which time he has been one of the world leaders in most frequent communication with Putin.
“He wants to be very decisive,” Niinistö said of Putin’s motives, noting that during a recent call the Russian leader was more official in his recognition of Finnish assertions of sovereignty than he’d been in the past. “It was a change from his past behavior,” Niinistö said.
Niinistö also cautioned that the world is “almost in a colder situation” than the world was during the original Cold War because “then we had at least some agreements between the US and Soviet Union limiting arms and so forth. Now we do not have, actually, anything." He warned that the lack of communication between Russia and the West was leaving the world more “vulnerable.”
Zelenskyy calls for meeting with Putin
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to choose a place where the two leaders could meet to try to resolve the crisis. There was no immediate response from the Kremlin.
Speaking Saturday at the Munich conference, Zelenskyy defiantly vowed to protect his country from a potential Russian invasion and chastised Europe for not doing more to safeguard its military and economic security.
Addressing in his native tongue, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was prepared "to protect our beautiful land on our borders whether we have 150,000 or 1 million soldiers of any army."
Zelenskyy said he was appreciative of the military supplies the West has provided as it stares down a large Russian force massing on its borders – particularly along the eastern front – but he also said Europe must do more to recognize and reward Ukraine's role in European stability.
Tension in Ukraine
Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine on Saturday ordered a full military mobilization and sent more civilians to Russia, which has issued about 700,000 passports to residents of the rebel-held territories. Claims that Russian citizens are being endangered might be used as justification for military action.
Officials in the separatist territories claimed Ukrainian forces launched several artillery attacks over the past day and that two civilians were killed in an unsuccessful assault on a village near the Russian border.
In new signs of fears that a war could start within days, Germany and Austria told their citizens to leave Ukraine. German air carrier Lufthansa canceled flights to the capital, Kyiv, and to Odesa, a Black Sea port that could be a key target in an invasion.
NATO's liaison office in Kyiv said it was relocating staff to Brussels and to the western Ukraine city of Lviv.
Biden said late Friday that based on the latest American intelligence, he was now "convinced" that Putin has decided to invade Ukraine in coming days and assault the capital.
A U.S. military official said an estimated 40% to 50% of those ground forces have moved into attack positions closer to the border. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal U.S. assessments, said the change has been underway for about a week and does not necessarily mean Putin has settled on an invasion.
Lines of communication between Moscow and the West remain open: the American and Russian defense chiefs spoke Friday. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Putin on Sunday for nearly two hours before a call with the Ukrainian president. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to meet next week.
Immediate worries focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting the pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people.
Ukraine and the separatist leaders traded accusations of escalation. Russia on Saturday said at least two shells fired from a government-held part of eastern Ukraine landed across the border, but Ukraine's foreign minister dismissed that claim as "a fake statement."
On the front lines in Ukraine
Top Ukrainian military officials came under a shelling attack during a tour of the front of the nearly eight-year separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine. The officials fled to a bomb shelter before hustling from the area, according to an Associated Press journalist who was on the tour.
The military on Sunday closed a key checkpoint leading to the separatist region after it came under repeated shelling.
Elsewhere on the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers said they were under orders not to return fire. Zahar Leshushun, peering into the distance with a periscope, had followed the news all day from a trench where he is posted near the town of Zolote.
"Right now, we don't respond to their fire because ..." the soldier started to explain before being interrupted by the sound of an incoming shell. "Oh! They are shooting at us now. They are aiming at the command post."
Contributing: Associated Press
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