Week 1 of the National Football League season was bracketed by two outstanding games and saw the unprecedented betting outcomes in the Super Bowl era. For the first time in the 53-year modern era, betting underdogs went 14-2 against the spread. Underdogs also won nine games outright, which tied a record in the same era, according to an ESPN report.
The Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5 against the Minnesota Vikings) were one of the underdogs to win the past week, which was capped with the wild comeback win for the Las Vegas Raiders (+4 against the Baltimore Ravens).
Both team, coincidentally, were home underdogs – a general betting favorite of mine.
While there's now a full game of film on each team in the NFL, it doesn't necessarily make it any easier to pick winners as teams are still figuring out their identities and as the popular cliché goes, anything can happen on any given Sunday.
(All odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook)
Without further ado, here are this week's top picks:
New York Giants at Washington Football Team -3.5
The Washington Football Team and New York Giants both enter this game winless, but the Giants looked far worse in Week 1 and going against one of the NFL's best front-seven defenses won't have them looking any better this week. While Washington will be without starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, this game still seems like a mismatch worth more than the 3.5 points suggest and comes at a decent price, -105 as well.
Houston at Cleveland -11.5
This number is already offered at a high price (-155) and might move a couple points before kickoff. The Houston Texans took advantage of a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that's simply outclassed right now. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns fell victim to Patrick Mahomes, but could very easily win this game by more than 14. While I'm a huge fan of the revenge game talking point, don't overthink this one with Tyrod Taylor returning to Cleveland.
Cincinnati +2.5 at Chicago
Two people already told me this is the sucker line of the week, meaning a lot of people will get sucked in by the Bengals' Week 1 win and think a field goal is easy to cover here. I actually like the Bengals outright in this game because of the weakness of Chicago's offensive line, the playcalling/QB usage by Chicago's offensive staff and the fact I'd take Joe Burrow to go win a game before Andy Dalton. If you agree with me, you can get Bengals +122 right now.
Detroit +10.5 at Green Bay
The Lions were the backdoor-cover/bad-beat darling of Week 1. Green Bay, to quote Fox Sports Radio's Doug Gottlieb, looked like a team whose quarterback took the offseason off and went hiking. Aaron Rogers will undoubtedly get back to form, but maybe not this soon. Take the points, and the -107 money, and hope for a nice Monday Night Football cap.
Home Dog of the Week
Gotta be honest, I loved the Bengals and Raiders in Week 1 and like nothing this week. But, I promised one each week, so I'll run you through the process of elimination:
MIA +135 vs. BUF – The Bills were the better team against Pittsburgh, but ultimately lost. There's no reason to think they lose at Miami.
Jets +200 vs. NE – I can't believe the number here is only 5.5./+200. Decent price for a New England team that should roll.
JAX +205 vs. DEN – Worst numerical odds for a home team this week with good reason. Former UC Bearcats DB Urban Meyer has a long road ahead in Northeast Florida.
CAR +160 vs. NO – A candidate for this week's HDOW. Let's consider last week's victory a warmup game. The Saints are set up for a big letdown after blowing out Green Bay.
PHI +160 vs. SF – The Eagles, also due for a letdown, looked great in Atlanta. However, the 49ers could be the class of the NFL this year.
BAL +160 vs. KC – The other candidate because betting on Lamar Jackson as an underdog seems smart. However, the Ravens are on a short week after a bad loss and will have to rebound in a lot of defensive areas for any hope on Sunday Night Football.
HDOW Pick: CAR +160 – I'll bet against Jameis Winston coming off a big win before I'll bet against Patrick Mahomes going into Baltimore and getting another big victory. This is the best of the mediocre options this week. The board giveth and taketh away.
Last week's record: 3-1 (CIN ML, CLE ML, PHI +3.5, LV ML)
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