The Cincinnati Reds had a Top-10 pick in the MLB Draft for four consecutive years (2016-19) as the big league club underwent a rebuild following their last playoff appearance in 2013.
Those picks at the top of the draft netted Nick Senzel, Hunter Greene, Jonathan India and Nick Lodolo. Senzel is the team’s starting center fielder and the other three players rank among the top prospects in the organization.
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Despite several years of high picks, however, the Reds have a farm system that lacks elite talent. Baseball America released its latest Top-100 prospects list on Monday, and the Reds had just two players on it: shortstop Jose Garcia (No. 79) and 2020 first-round pick Austin Hendrick (No. 97).
There were just four teams – the Houston Astros, Oakland A’s, Texas Rangers and Washington Nationals – with fewer than two players on Baseball America’s list. The Nationals and Astros played in the World Series in 2019, and the Astros used their prospect capital to complete trades for Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. The A’s had a Top-10 pick in three of the four years that the Reds did, though their 2018 first-round pick, Kyler Murray, chose the NFL over MLB.
Baseball America’s Top-100 list is just an opinion from one publication, but there are many perks to a strong farm system. The San Diego Padres had, arguably, the best farm system in baseball, and they've used their depth of prospects to acquire starting pitchers Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove in the past six months. When teams hold onto elite prospects, like the Toronto Blue Jays, they can shape their big league roster around them.
Two former Reds prospects were ranked in the Top 100. Right-handed pitcher Josiah Gray was ranked No. 68 and infielder Jeter Downs was No. 71. Both players were traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, along with Homer Bailey, in exchange for Alex Wood, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Kyle Farmer.
The Reds made that trade in an attempt to short-circuit their rebuild ahead of the 2019 season, but they finished with a 75-87 record. Wood missed most of the season with injuries, Puig was traded midseason and Kemp was cut after a month.
Former Reds prospect Taylor Trammell, who was sent to the Padres in the Trevor Bauer trade, was one of the 10 players mentioned on Baseball America’s just-missed list. Trammell was traded to the Seattle Mariners last year.
Trading those prospects has put the Reds in a precarious spot. Farmer is the only player who remains in the organization from those trades. The Reds made an all-in push last year, which resulted in a playoff berth, but they are reducing payroll after a season without fans. Now, the farm system has less depth and they are in a four-way fight to win the division.
The Reds wanted to open their window of contention before their high draft picks from their rebuild were ready to contribute. How long that window remains open will depend on those recent top picks and Garcia, who should return to the Majors when he's more consistent at the plate:
C Tyler Stephenson (No. 11 overall in 2015): He’s expected to split time at catcher with Tucker Barnhart this year. He had some highlights in his first taste of the big leagues, including a walk-off homer and throwing out Billy Hamilton. He needs to improve as a game-caller, but the Reds are ready to test him at the big league level.
CF Nick Senzel (No. 2 in 2016): It wasn’t that long ago when Senzel was viewed as the future star of the organization. He was one of the top prospects in the sport and hit at every level in the minor leagues. He changed positions a couple of times to reach the big leagues quicker, but he’s had trouble playing consistently because of various injuries.
RHP Hunter Greene (No. 2 in 2017): He missed the entire 2019 season because of Tommy John surgery and then spent most of last summer at the team’s alternate site to build his innings up. His velocity has returned, reaching 100 mph, but he slipped in the prospect rankings because of questions about his secondary pitches and new arm slot. He’s likely a year away from reaching the big leagues as he pitches in games for the first time since July 2018.
2B Jonathan India (No. 5 in 2018): There’s a chance India could make his MLB debut this year if there’s an injury to Eugenio Suárez or Mike Moustakas. He spent the 2020 season at the alternate site in Mason, Ohio, and he’s shown good plate discipline throughout his minor league career. The question is whether he can be an impact, everyday starter after he was the fifth pick.
LHP Nick Lodolo (No. 7 in 2019): He struggled when he faced big league hitters in his one appearance in spring training and his one start against the Detroit Tigers in July’s preseason camp. He spent the summer at the alternate site, but he never appeared on the verge of a big league promotion. As a lefty, he looms as an option to help in the bullpen if he's dominating in the minor leagues.
OF Austin Hendrick (No. 12 in 2020): Known for his power, Hendrick received some experience at the alternate site and impressed during the team’s instructional league in October. He isn’t a candidate to contribute in the big leagues this year, but he could rise on prospect lists if he consistently makes contact during his minor league season.
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