History once again beckons to FC Cincinnati.
In what's already been a yearlong parade of "firsts," "bests" and biggest achievements for FC Cincinnati, the next step in the club's evolution will be taken at noon Saturday in an Eastern Conference quarterfinal match against the New York Red Bulls at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey.
The momentum of snowballing results throughout 2022 upset preseason punditry from around North American soccer circles, and has led the club to an opportunity to claim its first-ever playoff victory. Other than earning an expansion bid to MLS, that achievement would stand as the most significant in the history of the franchise born in 2015.
Experts seem to think the achievement is attainable, too, although the FCC and New York have tied each of their last three meetings.
Nonetheless, FC Cincinnati has turned the pundits in its favor and is now projected to beat the Red Bulls, according to a handful of prominent experts.
After twice drawing 1-1 during the regular season on July 9 and Aug. 20, fifth-seeded FC Cincinnati (12-9-13 regular season record) and New York (15-11-8) meet for the third time in 2022. The winner will advance to an Eastern Conference semifinal match Thursday at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania, against Philadelphia Union, the east’s top seed.
Saturday's game will be a test of FC Cincinnati's blistering attack against the well-drilled, high-energy pressing defensive tactics employed by a young Red Bulls team.
FCC produced 64 goals in 2022, the fourth-most in Major League Soccer. The club had three double-digit scorers in Brandon Vazquez (18 goals), Brenner Souza da Silva (18) and Luciano Acosta (10), with Vazquez and Brenner combining to form the most prolific attacking duo in MLS.
All three players scored in Sunday's playoff-clinching victory against D.C. United. Goals by Acosta and Vazquez bookended a Brenner hat-trick. Brenner was later named MLS Player of the Month for September and October, as well as a finalist for the league's Young Player of the Year award.
New York, which was boosted offensively by Lewis Morgan's team-leading 14 goals, proved itself to be a stingy team defensively, allowing 41 goals on the year. That was the sixth-fewest allowed in the regular season across MLS. And in the clubs’ most recent encounter, only Matt Miazga found the back of the Red Bulls’ net. The goal came via a set-piece delivery.
Meanwhile, Vazquez, Brenner and Acosta combined for a single shot in the match.
"With New York, we know a lot of what the game's gonna look like based on our two previous matchups," FC Cincinnati head coach Pat Noonan said Tuesday. "Hard-fought games. It's gonna be, I imagine, a similar type of game but ramped up in terms of the importance of it and the intensity that we expect.
"I think if you're able to break that initial pressure, that's when the game can open up. When you find yourself struggling to break that first line of pressure or the spacing isn't right in the ideas of how we can play forward, then the game will be very difficult."
FC Cincinnati fancies its own defensive abilities, though, and how its defense was deployed against the Red Bulls in particular.
New York's only goals in the season series came from the penalty spot. Noonan also praised his side's effort in both matches for how it defended its penalty area.
"They got two penalty kicks against us and that’s kind of the two ties," FC Cincinnati center back Nick Hagglund said in post-match comments Sunday. "Hopefully we can avoid those mistakes and put a couple away and we’ll let at them as it comes. I think the guys will be ready. With Red Bulls, it’s about urgency. It’s about coming to battle, and if you win those battles, anything can happen."
Penalties could decide FCC's playoff fate
Amid FC Cincinnati's best-ever season in MLS in 2022, the club also had 13 ties, including two against the Red Bulls. So, there's a reasonable chance Saturday's game could be yet another tight affair.
Unlike in the regular season, though, one of the two clubs must advance from a tied game. If the match is deadlocked after 90 minutes, an additional 30 minutes will be added to the match. Following a short intermission, the clubs would play two fifteen-minute halves.
If the match is still tied after the 30 added minutes, the game is technically considered a draw but one of the clubs will advance via penalty kicks.
Each team would take five kicks, and then move to sudden-death kicks if they remained tied after the initial set of five.
FC Cincinnati on Thursday practiced its penalty-taking, but practice in that area of the game can wither in the pressure of the actual moment.
"I think I feel confident enough to take a 'PK'," Miazga said Tuesday. "In the past, that wasn't the case. I'm not gonna lie. One of the regrets in my career so far is in the U-20 (FIFA) World Cup, I didn't take a PK against Serbia. Obviously, I don't know if I'd have made it or not but I should have went for it. I was like the 10th (kicker). We got to the 10th (round) and they scored and we lost, but I had a few PK's in England I took during some cup competitions with Reading. I feel confident now. I'm older now and I think I can hit a ball pretty strongly."
More:FC Cincinnati lukewarm on noon kickoff for MLS Cup playoff match vs. New York Red Bulls
The game
Kickoff: 12 p.m., Saturday | Red Bull Arena; Harrison, New Jersey
TV//Stream: WSTR Star-64 (local broadcast), UniMas, TUDN (national broadcasts) / MLSsoccer.com, MLS App.
All-time series info: The Red Bulls lead the all-time series against FC Cincinnati with five wins, two losses and three draws (5-2-3).
2022 matchups: FC Cincinnati and New York twice played to 1-1 draws this season, first on July 9 at TQL Stadium (game story) and later in their Aug. 20 meeting at Red Bull Arena (game story).
Ticketing info for FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls
Cincinnati.com prediction: New York Red Bulls 1, FC Cincinnati 2.
No. 5-seed FC Cincinnati
2022 regular-season record: 12-9-13, 49 points
Goals for: 64 (fourth in MLS)
Goals against: 56 (21st in MLS)
Coach: Pat Noonan – first season at FC Cincinnati
Postseason history: This is FC Cincinnati's first-ever postseason berth.
Projected starting lineup:
Roman Celentano, goalkeeper,
Alvaro Barreal, left back
Alvas Powell, right back
Nick Hagglund, center back
Geoff Cameron, center back
Matt Miazga, center back
Obinna Nwobodo, midfielder
Junior Moreno, midfielder
Luciano Acosta, midfielder
Brandon Vazquez, forward
Brenner Souza da Silva, forwad
No. 4-seed New York Red Bulls
2022 regular-season record: 15-11-8, 53 points.
Goals for: 50 (11th in MLS)
Goals against: 41 (sixth in MLS)
Coach: Gerhard Struber – second season at Red Bulls
Postseason history: The Red Bulls have qualified for the postseason 23 times in club history. The 2022 season marks their 13th consecutive year in the MLS postseason.
Projected starting lineup:
Carlos Coronel, goalkeeper
Andrés Reyes, center back
Sean Nealis, center back
Aaron Long, center back
Dylan Nealis, midfielder/wing back
John Tolkin, left back/wing back/midfielder
Daniel Edelman, midfielder
Frankie Amaya, midfielder
Luquinhas, winger/forward
Elias Manoel, forward
Lewis Morgan, forward
Noteworthy: FC Cincinnati favored by pundits − Cincinnati.com isn't the only media outlet picking FC Cincinnati to prevail in Saturday's match as FCC has taken the form of a darkhorse contender in the east. Yahoo! projects FC Cincinnati will "find a way" against the Red Bulls. Also, six members of a seven-person MLSSoccer.com expert panel predicted FC Cincinnati would beat New York.
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