The latest forecasts for Hurricane Ian suggest the massive, powerful storm will make landfall in Florida's Sarasota County, farther south than previous predictions but still threatening statewide devastation, authorities said Tuesday.
Ian slammed into Cuba earlier Tuesday, a Category 3 monster pounding the island with 125-mph winds. Now approaching Florida, Ian's shift eastward has put the city of Venice in the storm’s crosshairs sometime Wednesday, although high winds and storm surge are still expected farther north into the previously targeted Tampa Bay region, state Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said.
Hundreds of thousands of Floridians faced mandatory evacuation orders as the National Hurricane Center expanded the hurricane warning along more than 150 miles of the state's Gulf Coast. Power outages can be expected statewide, Florida Power & Light warned.
Along with the howling winds, parts of Central Florida could see 12-16 inches of rain with 2 feet possible in isolated areas, the hurricane center said. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said there was potential for "historic" storm surge and flooding.
"In some areas there will be catastrophic flooding and life-threatening storm surge," DeSantis said Tuesday. "Because of the size of the storm, it's kicking up a lot of surge. The Gulf is going to be very angry as this comes in."
DeSantis warned that flooding was likely across much of west Florida. He also raised the possibility that after landfall, a weakening Ian would continue to march across Central Florida before exiting somewhere along the state’s Atlantic Coast.
WHAT IS STORM SURGE? Explaining a hurricane's deadliest and most destructive threat
Other developments:
►At 2 p.m., Ian was 265 miles south of Sarasota, driving sustained winds of 120 mph. The storm was slowing slightly, moving north at 10 mph. The hurricane center said the forecast continues to call for "an extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida."
►Orlando International Airport will shut down Wednesday at 10:30 a.m.
►The hurricane center expanded its hurricane warning to include Bonita Beach north through Tampa Bay to the Anclote River. Fort Myers is in the hurricane zone, and Tampa and St. Petersburg could still get a direct hit by a major hurricane for the first time in a century.
Tampa may not see landfall, but big hit likely
Tampa was no longer the most likely place for landfall, but the local forecast still calls for massive amounts of rain. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said Tampa will still get a storm surge, but nothing like anticipated in earlier forecasts. And "it's very possible this thing could kind of wobble" a little bit further north than what computer models are suggesting.
The Tampa area sits at sea level, making it especially vulnerable to storm surge impacts, said weather service meteorologist Christianne Pearce.
“Any amount of storm surge could be significant in those areas, especially with as much it's been built up, and storm surge and any kind of inland flooding could be significant,” Pearce said.
Storm will slow down, linger over Florida 'for a long time'
FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell, speaking at a White House briefing, said the storm will make landfall somewhere between Tampa and Fort Myers. The entire state will be affected, and "everyone needs to stay focused," she said. By the time Ian reaches Florida the storm will slow to approximately 5 mph, which means storm surge is the biggest concern, she said.
"This is significant because what his means is that Floridians are going to experience the impacts of this storm for a very long time," she said.
Florida theme parks preparing to close
"Everything revolves around the safety of our guests and team members," Universal Orlando Resort said in a statement to USA TODAY.
Evacuees need not go too far
Guthrie said those looking to leave the storm's path may not have to go far.
"Many people in the Southwest Florida area, your best bet is going to be evacuate across the state," Guthrie said. "Just go straight across the state to Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach."
DeSantis said that, for some evacuees, moving to a nearby building on higher ground might be sufficient.
"This is not necessarily saying you have to evacuate to another state," DeSantis said. "When we say evacuate we don't mean keep traveling until you have no chance of getting rained on."
Waiting for the storm on Sarasota County's Siesta Key
Andrew and Pam Trapani were resigned to riding out Hurricane Ian in their Siesta Key home Tuesday. They thought about leaving as the forecast worsened, but by the time the Trapanis considered evacuating, they couldn't find a hotel. They decided their house – built in 2017 at 17 feet of elevation with hurricane-resistant windows and a whole-house generator – was safe enough. It sits on 55 pilings driven 35 feet into the ground and has a bottom floor designed for floodwater to wash through.
Andrew Trapani said it always felt like the region was protected from big storms. But he isn't overconfident.
"I'm not much of a drinker but I'll probably have a few scotches the next few days," he said.
Sanibel businesses board up; shops prep for Ian
Nick Ticich and his family have owned the T-Shirt Hut in Sanibel, about 50 miles south of Venice, since the 1950s. Over the past 50 years, the family has battled a handful of hurricanes and won nearly every time. Yet after his family almost lost the store when Hurricane Charley ripped through the tiny town in 2004, he said he still feels the need to board up for each oncoming disaster.
"It could come at us," Ticich said as he boarded up his shop. "We can lose the building. We can lose everything."
Ian's storm surge, winds blast Cuba
Ian made landfall on Cuba's western tip, where officials set up shelters, rushed in emergency personnel and worked to protect crops in Cuba’s tobacco-growing region.
"Significant wind and storm surge impacts (are) occurring over Cuba," said Daniel Brown, senior hurricane specialist and the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The storm was forecast to roll off Cuba and strengthen to a Category 4 storm over warm, Gulf of Mexico waters. The storm's winds could reach 140 mph before reaching Florida as soon as Wednesday.
Hurricane Ian tracker
Ian will slow down over the Gulf, growing wider and stronger, “which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts along the west coast of Florida,” the hurricane center said.
"This would likely prolong the storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts along the affected portions of the west coast of Florida," the advisory says.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION:What does that mean?
LANDFALL IN CUBA:Hurricane Ian grows stronger
Heavy rain, flooding forecast for Southeast
Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast on Friday and Saturday, the weather service said. "Widespread, considerable" flash and urban flooding are expected mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Significant, prolonged river flooding is expected across central to northern Florida.
Limited flash and river flooding is expected over portions of the Southeast into the mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.
WHAT IS STORM SURGE?:It's often a hurricane's deadliest and most destructive threat
Florida National Guard called into duty
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has issued a statewide state of emergency, said 5,000 Florida National Guard members were being called into duty, and 2,000 more are being sent to Florida from nearby states. The state is working to load 360 trailers with more than 2 million meals and more than 1 million gallons of water to prepare for distribution. Urban Search and Rescue Teams are ready to mobilize where needed, DeSantis said.
“There is going to be an interruption of power, so just plan on that," DeSantis said. “The impacts are going to be far and wide."
Hurricane categories, explained:Breaking down the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind speed scale
What is 'rapid intensification'?
"Rapid intensification" is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph within 24 hours. Ian is predicted to fit this definition. The storm's winds were forecast to approach 140 mph by late Tuesday.
Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an "extremely conducive environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. That typically includes very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture. Out of the nine hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or greater that struck the U.S. mainland over 103 years, all but one saw the explosion of force and power known as rapid intensification.
Category 4 storms can cause 'catastrophic' damage
If the storm struck as a Category 4 hurricane, it could cause "catastrophic" damage, and power outages could last weeks or months, according to the National Weather Service's description of storms that strong. Areas can be uninhabitable for weeks or months, the weather service says.
“Even if you’re not necessarily right in the eye of the path of the storm, there’s going to be pretty broad impacts throughout the state," DeSantis warned.
Contributing: Zac Anderson and Steven Walker, Sarasota Herald-Tribune; Samantha Neely of Fort Myers News-Press; John Kennedy, USA TODAY Network; Ashley Williams; Celina Tebor, Doyle Rice and Eve Chen, USA TODAY; The Associated Press
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