A recent Democratic mailer pitched in, saying Nemes "is so extreme, he voted to force women to give birth to the child of their rapist."
Nemes has countered that he would support a rape and incest exemption to Kentucky's abortion ban, stating on his campaign website that "abortion is the single issue she's running on, so she is trying to make me out to be a monster."
While Watson believes this strategy could have been effective if the Dobbs ruling had come closer to the election, he says much of the emotion behind the issue has faded and Republican messaging on economic insecurity will win out.
"If you haven't been directly affected by abortion or abortion access, it's hard to get fired up about that issue when you're not sure where your next mortgage payment or your next rent check is coming from," Watson said.
Jared Smith, a Democratic consultant in Kentucky, said Democrats are certainly facing increased headwinds of redistricting and national economic trends, but the abortion amendment and the issue may save Democratic incumbents or cause Fleming or Nemes to fall.
"Are (suburban women) gonna go in and vote no on Amendment 2 and then yes for all the Republicans?" Smith asked. "Or are they going to take it out on them? And that we don't know."
Watson suspects the amendment may help Republican candidates in some respect, as it could give "more moderate, center-right people who weren't fans of Dobbs a place to direct their ire, rather than the candidate."
Already facing a perilous environment as the two south Louisville Democratic incumbents in Trump-friendly territory, Miller and Donohue are also being outspent — with the help of the Republican Party of Kentucky and a GOP super PAC, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, that has pitched in half a million dollars to help Republicans in eight competitive races.
A new Kentucky GOP mailer shows Miller's head photoshopped onto the body of an iconic TV character from the black-and-white era, stating he "talks like John Wayne ... votes like Barney Fife."
Another GOP mailer blames him for homicides "tripling" in Louisville since he was elected in 1998, and they both cite Miller's vote in 2018 against a bill targeting gangs — which several Louisville Republicans, including Nemes, voted against for going "too far."
Adding to the pile is $68,000 of ads purchased by Kentuckians for Strong Leadership — twice the amount Miller's campaign has reported spending in the entire race — that call him "anti-cop and pro-felon."
More: 2022 Kentucky House elections: Louisville candidates on abortion, marijuana, 'red flag' laws
Donohue got the same treatment, with mailers saying he "votes to protect gangs" and highlight his votes against two bills this year to limit bail charity organizations and increase penalties on fentanyl traffickers. Kentuckians for Strong Leadership also spent $67,000 on ads — also double what Donohue has reported spending to date — hitting him for voting against a tax cut bill.
Meanwhile, the campaign of Miller's GOP opponent, Jared Bauman, who is roughly 50 years younger, portrays the Republican as "delivering a new generation of strong and active leadership." The Strong Leadership ad attacking Donohue describes his GOP opponent Emily Callaway as "a hardworking mom and political outsider who truly gets the south end."
However, Smith is still skeptical that the longtime Democratic incumbents will be unseated.
"I just don't see it. I mean, it's blue collar, it's union," Smith said. "And I don't see how they'd align themselves with a party that's kind of the opposite of that."
Kitchen said Republicans and their "increasingly extreme candidates" are focused on dividing Kentuckians and "engaged in a constant barrage of dishonest and outlandish attacks because they’re campaigning on fear and not on Kentucky’s future.”
'The stakes are too high'
As for the two vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Northern Kentucky, most political observers believe Roberts is the safest.
The reason, Watson says, is that her GOP opponent, Jerry Gearding, is "a significantly flawed candidate" who has received no support from state party committees.
The Kentucky Democratic Party is jumping on Gearding's domestic violence arrests in 2018 and 2019, with emergency protective orders filed against him those same years by the same woman.
A KDP mailer shows a woman with a black eye and one of Gearding's mugshots, while the Kentucky Fraternal Order of Police cited his arrest record in their endorsement of Roberts — one of only two Democratic legislators with an opponent the FOP is endorsing this cycle.
Meanwhile, Roberts has raised and spent more than 10 times that of Gearding's campaign, with an ad featuring her endorsement from Leanna Honmadberg — the Republican candidate she beat in 2020 — who says "it doesn't matter what party you're in. The stakes are too high in this election."
Gearding has expressed his innocence and said the "Socialist Left" is using the arrests to attack him, adding that the charges were dismissed.
Gearding is also not without support, including the endorsement of ideologically like-minded GOP Congressman Thomas Massie.
More: NKY's House District 67: Incumbent Rachel Roberts runs against Republican Jerry Gearding
In addition to making his opposition to all abortion prominent in his campaign, Gearding has said he has "no doubt" that Trump had the 2020 election stolen from him, citing as evidence that Trump has much larger crowd sizes than Biden.
Former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is from the same Northern Kentucky region, says it is true that most in the party establishment won't touch Gearding, but he wouldn't totally count him out, citing national trends and the fact that the region has become notorious for unexpected outcomes involving candidates from the "liberty" wing of the party.
"The question is, is it a big Republican year and has Northern Kentucky become so Republican that it just doesn't matter, even a quality candidate can lose."
Wheatley, a retired Covington fire chief, is taking on Republican family law attorney Stephanie Dietz.
While Wheatley has reported raising and spending roughly twice as much as Dietz, once again Kentuckians for Strong Leadership has neutralized that advantage. The PAC purchased $83,000 of ads hitting Wheatley on inflation and taxes, close to the $100,000 raised by Wheatley.
Dietz's campaign also has used the GOP supermajority to her advantage, saying that unlike Wheatley, she will give Covington "a seat at the table."
Grayson said that message — a common theme among GOP candidates this year — is likely to be effective.
"That's what makes it so hard, once you get in the minority, to retake the majority, because you're kind of throwing your vote away."
An Appalachian attempt at 'Let's go Brandon'
Hatton, the House minority whip, is tasked with winning in a district that was both dramatically altered, and whose constituents gave Trump more than 80% of the vote.
She faces Republican challenger Jacob Justice, a dentist who has outraised Hatton with the help of his GOP caucus' campaign committee. Hatton also faces uncertainty because her base lies in Whitesburg and Letcher County, which was devastated by flooding in August that displaced many.
Watson said that displacement and the mechanics of voting there may hurt her chances, but Smith added that many across party and ideological lines saw "the leadership she showed during the floods."
More: Gerth: Freedom Fest showed how far Trump Republicans have gone off the rails
"I just think Letcher County will vote for Letcher County instead of party," Smith said. "And if they do that like they've done before with her, then she'll be OK."
In District 95, Biden's unpopularity takes center stage with Tackett Laferty's GOP opponent, James Spencer, who was once a Democrat in the legislature. He goes by his middle name, Brandon, with his campaign and GOP ads proclaiming "Let's Go Brandon!" — the coded curse out popular among many conservatives, meaning "---- you Biden."
'Extreme wokeism' mailer in Bowling Green
Bowling Green is the site of the most expensive House race, where Minter faces a challenge from Republican Kevin Jackson, a former educator.
Both have raised approximately $160,000 for the general election, with Kentuckians for Strong Leadership again coming to the Republican's aid with $60,000 of attack ads.
While Minter's campaign has touted her record of supporting public schools, workers' rights and access to affordable health care, attack ads have focused on culture war issues involving transgender kids and critical race theory.
A GOP mailer accuses her of "extreme wokeism" and "pushing transgender agendas on our kids" for voting against a bill banning transgender girls from girls' sports and "against combatting CRT." The party also criticized her for signing a permit for the Bowling Green Pride Festival.
More: Here's what to know about the Kentucky legislature's passage of the transgender sports ban
In House District 88 in Lexington, Stevenson has raised and spent slightly more than her GOP opponent Jim Coleman, a former Wall Street executive, but Kentuckians for Strong Leadership has also pitched in $56,000 of ads criticizing her for the vote against the trans sports ban.
Stevenson, who won by close margins in her first two victories, now faces her toughest fight yet, with her district boundaries completely changed to the northern section of Fayette County and southern Scott County — which Trump won by 5 percentage points.
With the wide backing of labor unions, Stevenson has campaigned on reversing a 2021 law that moved new public school teachers from a defined benefit pension plan to a hybrid plan.
Reach reporter Joe Sonka at jsonka@courierjournal.com and follow him on Twitter at @joesonka
