WASHINGTON–The 118th Congress is making history before a single vote has been cast, promising a Jan. 3 battle between the "never Kevins" and "only Kevins."
The smile on Rep. Kevin McCarthy's face as he left the Capitol Monday and predicted "a good day tomorrow" may indicate he thinks the "only Kevins" are winning in his bid for House speaker.
But there are more than a dozen members within his Republican Party who say they are voting against him, raising concerns or remaining on the fence about whether to support him.
The outcome this week is unknown, but the math is clear: In a House with a narrow Republican majority, McCarthy can only afford to lose four votes if he wants to hold the speaker's gavel.
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If McCarthy is not elected on the first ballot, he would be the first speaker candidate in 100 years to fail. If the voting goes to multiple ballots, voting rounds and drags on for days, it would be the first time something like this has happened in Congress since the Civil War.
And McCarthy supporters, such as Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, have not ruled out galvanizing moderate Republicans and some Democrats to get McCarthy the needed 218 votes.
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House Republicans who could stand in McCarthy's way
There are two main blocs in the Republican House caucus that could stand in his way during the Tuesday vote to elect the next speaker: the five "never Kevins" who have publicly said they will not vote for him and nine conservative members who are withholding support as they push for changes to House rules.
The "never Kevins" include Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Matt Gaetz of Florida, Bob Good of Virginia, Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Matt Rosendale of Montana.
"McCarthy has gone into total bargaining mode to acquire last-minute votes for House Speaker," Biggs said in a statement Monday afternoon. "There are no principles anymore. It's become a take-whatever-you-need motto. This is what a McCarthy speakership would look like and would put our country last."
A group of nine conservative lawmakers pushing for concessions includes Reps. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Paul Gosar of Arizona, Chip Roy of Texas, Dan Bishop of North Carolina, Andy Harris of Maryland, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and three representatives-elect: Eli Crane of Arizona, Anna Paulina Luna of Florida and Andy Ogles of Tennessee.
In a letter Sunday night, those nine lawmakers noted that McCarthy has made some concessions but not enough.
For example, they want a single member – rather than five – to be able to remove a speaker. And they don't want House leadership to spend money against or campaign against conservatives in open primaries.
"Nothing changes when nothing changes, and that must start from the top," Perry said in a statement Monday. "Time to make the change or get out of the way."
The pressure campaign against McCarthy continued Tuesday night, with the conservative group Club for Growth urging its members to vote against a speaker candidate who doesn't meet its demands.
One demand involves holding a vote on term limits that include three terms in the House and two in the Senate "to expose the career politicians that only serve their own interests and to enrich themselves, not public service in the best interests of the American People."
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Candy Woodall is a Congress reporter for USA TODAY. She can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter at @candynotcandace.
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