New research shows the number of farms in the world is in decline, posing significant risks to the world's food systems.
A study published by the University of Colorado Boulder in the Nature Sustainability journal shows that the number of farms globally could be cut in half as the size of existing farms doubles by the end of the century.
"We see a turning point from widespread farm creation to widespread consolidation on a global level, and that's the future trajectory that humanity is currently on," said Zia Mehrabi, assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder. "The size of the farm and the number of farms that exist are associated with key environmental and social outcomes."
This decline in farm numbers has already been happening for decades in the United States and Europe. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows there were 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2007.
As more people migrate to urban areas, researchers found that the number of farms around the world could fall from about 616 million in 2020 to just 272 million by 2100 — a trend that would drastically threaten biodiversity. Fewer farms means fewer farmers who possess years — if not decades or centuries — of knowledge of the land they farm. If farms continue to consolidate, that history and knowledge may be replaced by new techniques.
"Larger farms typically have less biodiversity and more monocultures," Mehrabi said. "Smaller farms typically have more biodiversity and crop diversity, which makes them more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks."
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Mehrabi compared it to investing on Wall Street. More diverse stock portfolios typically perform better than those that are less diverse. The same thing can be said about our food supply.
"If you’re investing in today’s food systems with around 600 million farms in the world, your portfolio is pretty diverse," Mehrabi said. "If there’s damage to one farm, it’s likely the impact to your portfolio will be averaged out with the success of another. But if you decrease the number of farms and increase their size, the effect of that shock on your portfolio is going to increase. You’re carrying more risk."
However, researchers suggest there are some upsides in this shift to corporate farming. The study points out that a larger workforce and better management systems could lead to more productivity. Nonetheless, Mehrabi believes it's an overlooked subject that requires more attention from global leaders as our population continues to grow.
"Currently, we have around 600 million farms feeding the world, and they’re carrying 8 billion people on their shoulders," he said. "By the end of the century, we’ll likely have half the number of farmers feeding even more people. We really need to think about how we can have the education and support systems in place to support those farmers."
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