One year removed from a difficult holiday season amid surging COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, the question of whether it's safe to celebrate Thanksgiving indoors with family members has resurfaced this year.
The short answer from many experts including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is yes. But there are a few caveats.
In the CDC's updated guidance on how to safely gather with family members during the holidays this year, the biggest emphasis is on getting the vaccine to not only protect yourself but also protect others who are not eligible to receive a shot.
The federal public health agency also recommends wearing a mask that covers your nose and mouth if you are celebrating indoors and are not vaccinated.
While nearly 60% of the nation has been fully vaccinated, some states including Ohio have seen case numbers head back up after significant drops last month. It's a reality that signals even though a return to normalcy has existed for months in many areas, there is risk in gathering in large crowds.
Map shows risk by county
A tool developed by Georgia Tech researchers shows the risk level of attending an event, given the size and location.
The bigger the number of people, the higher the risk that at least one COVID-19 positive person will be present. Increasing the number of people at a party from 20 to 25 boosts the risk; conversely, limiting the crowd to 10 or 15 reduces the risk.
The location also matters because rates of vaccinations and current infections vary across the region.
Using gatherings of 10, 20 and 50 people, here is an outlook of what those risks look like in the Cincinnati area:
Ohio
Hamilton County
- Daily new cases: 25.5 per 100,000 residents
- Positivity rate: 7.5%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 10 people: 9%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 20 people: 18%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 50 people: 39%
Butler County
- Daily new cases: 34 per 100,000 residents
- Positivity rate: 10.9%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 10 people: 12%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 20 people: 22%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 50 people: 46%
Clermont County
- Daily new cases: 36.7 per 100,000 residents
- Positivity rate: 10.8%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 10 people: 13%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 20 people: 24%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 50 people: 50%
Warren County
- Daily new cases: 33.5 per 100,000 residents
- Positivity rate: 11.1%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 10 people: 12%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 20 people: 22%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 50 people: 47%
Kentucky
Boone County
- Daily new cases: 42.1 per 100,000 residents
- Positivity rate: 11.7%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 10 people: 15%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 20 people: 28%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 50 people: 55%
Campbell County
- Daily new cases: 31 per 100,000 residents
- Positivity rate: 9%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 10 people: 11%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 20 people: 21%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 50 people: 45%
Kenton County
- Daily new cases: 39.9 per 100,000 residents
- Positivity rate: 10.6%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 10 people: 14%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 20 people: 25%
- Risk estimate at a gathering of 50 people: 52%
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