Pandemic numbers show the fourth surge of the coronavirus has peaked in Ohio, with rising vaccinations and other measures capping the delta variant. But public health officials caution that the going still is difficult, and they are worried about the winter as people spend more time indoors.
Vaccinating younger children, thanks to federal action this week, will close an access gate for the virus to spread, offering hope of further flattening the pandemic, the officials say.
"We're not out of the woods," Ohio’s health director Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff declared. "Despite a downward trend, Ohio’s COVID cases remain very high.”
For the last two weeks in September, Ohio counted nearly 617 cases of COVID-19 for every 100,000 people. For the second half of October, the case rate slid to 359 for every 100,000 Ohioans, a spread the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still rates as severe. That’s the reason public health officials still recommend masking, even for vaccinated people, to enhance the effort to contain the contagion.
To drop to what the CDC considers moderate spread, the case rate needs to hit 50 for every 100,000 people.
As of this week, the Ohio Department of Health reported more than 24,760 Ohioans have died in the coronavirus pandemic, nearly three-fourths of them older than 70.
Vanderhoff offered his assessment Wednesday in discussing the expanding inoculation campaign for the 997,000 Ohio children ages 5 to 11, which the federal government authorized Tuesday.
Last December, vaccines boosted by an unprecedented effort in the Trump administration became available for adults. By June, Ohio and the nation saw falling death numbers, hospitalizations and cases.
In Hamilton County, for example, the peak of the pandemic daily count was 938 cases on Nov. 13, 2020. By June 26, there were eight. Public health officials across the nation set goals of getting 70% of Americans vaccinated by July 4.
Then the delta surge spread across the world in spring and by Independence Day started gaining on the U.S. vaccination campaign. People resisting the call to get vaccinated contributed to the steep rise in case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths, although not to the winter’s peak.
ODH says that in Franklin County on July 1, nine people were hospitalized with COVID-19. By Sept. 20, 266 were in hospitals. By Oct. 31, the census was 84.
In Summit County on July 1, one person was hospitalized. The peak was Sept. 9 at 27. On Oct. 31, the number was nine.
Public health officials across the state said the surge clearly drew the bulk of its fuel from people who did not get vaccinated. The state's hospitals went into the black zone of occupancy, have come down from their stressed
More than 90% of COVID-19 patients in Ohio in 2021 have been unvaccinated.
The ambitious vaccination goals from the summer have yet to be reached. As of Thursday, the state reported almost 65% of Ohioans 12 and older had gotten at least one shot of vaccine. More than 1.5 million Ohioans, about 13%, have gotten the coronavirus and have some level of immunity from the exposure.
More:Northeast Ohio doctors warn of winter surge, laud progress in new therapy, more vaccines
Wednesday, Vanderhoff and other public health officials urged parents to get eligible children vaccinated to protect them and older family members. Vaccinations also protect cancer patients and others living with compromised immune systems that make them vulnerable to a virus.
The pandemic came on suddenly in March 2020, but its ending will be harder to pin down. The 1918 flu pandemic took about two years to subside, without a vaccine to assist, and eventually, flu became seasonal, with pockets of breakouts. The same endemic outlook could hold true for the coronavirus.
The winter will be another key test. So far, flu in Ohio appears to be even less than in 2020, a record low season thanks to precautions against the coronavirus. But holiday gatherings usually give flu a prime opportunity to spread, especially among those who forego the flu shot.
Donna Skoda, Summit County public health commissioner, is optimistic but worries about a "twindemic" of COVID-19 and flu.
"We’re in that odd phase right now where it appears from all indications that we’re getting it behind us. However, we’re coming up on the holidays, when people move indoors and we just had a big trick or treat,” Skoda said. "We have seen some upticks in the past. We’re hopeful we’re going to continue to drop.”
It’s also possible and in fact likely that the coronavirus could mutate further to a strain that spreads even more quickly than the delta variant or defeats the vaccination. Those concerns trouble public health officials such as Columbus Public Health Commissioner Dr. Mysheika Roberts.
"I'm feeling good about where we stand today,” she said, “but I think it's too early to say how long we're going to maintain that level.”
"I want to manage people's expectations," Roberts said. "I don't want our community to think: 'well, they told us this was over and now look.'"
One sign that the pandemic is passing turned up this week. In Hamilton County, the state of emergency order issued in the earliest days of the crisis, March 12, 2020, quietly expired on Halloween.
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