A few weeks ago, Ohio State’s matchup Saturday night against Penn State looked like it could be the game of the year in the Big Ten.
While the Buckeyes were rounding into form after their early loss to Oregon, the Nittany Lions had risen to No. 4 in the polls. Anticipation for a showdown in the ‘Shoe was already building.
How things have changed. No. 5 Ohio State (6-1) has done its part, continuing to dominate overmatched opponents. But No. 20 Penn State is teetering. A 17-3 lead at No. 3 Iowa on Oct. 9 melted away in a 23-20 loss after quarterback Sean Clifford (St. Xavier High School) was injured. Following an off week, the Nittany Lions fell Saturday to 24-point underdog Illinois in nine overtimes. Clifford played but was clearly not healthy.
Though it will be a wounded Nittany Lion team that comes to Columbus, the Buckeyes are wary. Penn State has played Ohio State tougher than any other Big Ten team in recent years. Not since 2015 have the Buckeyes beaten the Nittany Lions by more than 13 points. That includes a PSU victory in 2016 and 1-point Ohio State escapes the next two years.
“When you look at the games that we’ve had with them in the past, they’re always a dogfight,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. “That's just the way it's been, and I know it's going to be that way. They have a lot of pride. They’re one of the best programs in the country.”
What's the point spread of the Ohio State-Penn State game?
Ohio State is an 18-point favorite Saturday, with Clifford’s status a big factor in the lopsided spread. Penn State coach James Franklin said Tuesday he’s optimistic about Clifford’s health.
“Sean’s much further ahead now being back to 100 percent,” he said. “That's a positive. Sean felt great, physically, on Sunday. We expect to have a 100-percent Sean Clifford this weekend.”
Ohio State has no issues with its quarterback or its offense. C.J. Stroud is on a roll, having thrown 14 touchdown passes with zero interceptions the last three games. The Buckeyes have scored at least 50 points in their last four contests.
Continuing that streak against Penn State’s defense won’t be easy. The Nittany Lions have been dented by injuries but are still formidable.
“You can see it on tape,” tight end Jeremy Ruckert said. “They're very physical. They come at you downhill on defense. They have a really strong defense.”
Penn State ranks sixth nationally in scoring defense, yielding fewer than 15 points per game.
“They're one of the better defenses in the country, in my opinion,” Day said. “There's a lot that goes into that. I think it's scheme. It's coaching. And they have really good personnel as well.”
Since their loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes have treated each game as a mini-season because they know they have no margin for error if they want to reach the College Football Playoff for a third straight year.
“I think that our guys have seen the good, the bad and the ugly already, even at this point of the season,” Day said. “We're still young. We're still figuring it all out. But you're seeing a lot of guys build confidence, and it's tangible. You can grab onto it. You can feel it.”
Day has been pleased with his team’s businesslike approach, how they didn’t panic after Oregon and haven’t grown complacent with recent success. He said that has to continue.
“I think our guys understand that,” Day said. “They're a little scarred and calloused from that, which is a good thing. But we’ve got to stay humble, and we can’t let little things slip. Because if we continually stay locked in, that gives us our best chance to win. It's all about winning this game on Saturday night. It's going to be hard.”
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