The fourth wave of the novel coronavirus pandemic looks to be cresting in Hamilton County, with dropping case numbers and rising vaccinations, although officials said Wednesday hospitals still are critically busy with COVID-19 patients.
In planning for year-end holidays in the second year of the pandemic, Hamilton County Health Commissioner Greg Kesterman counseled residents to again factor masking, social distancing and other precautions. “We have a long way to go,” he said.
Kesterman delivered his report at the county’s periodic pandemic briefing, where County Commissioner Denise Driehaus said eight branches of the Public Library of Cincinnati and Hamiton County have restocked free coronavirus rapid test kits for drive-thru pickup: Anderson Township, Covedale, downtown, Groesbeck, Harrison, Reading and Symmes Township.
The two-month surge of the novel coronavirus delta variant spurred vaccination in Hamilton County and across the region. Kate Schroder, interim chief strategy officer at the nonprofit Health Collaborative, oversees the regional Get Out The Vax drive, which aims to reach 80% vaccination of all eligible by the end of the year. The drive, which was announced in April, initially had a goal of reaching the 80% target by July 4.
Schroder reported Wednesday that the Cincinnati region hit 67% vaccinated of people 12 and older, and Hamilton County now is at 69% fully vaccinated. The more people who are, the better the chance of “herd immunity,” when enough people are protected to keep a virus from spreading.
Because the novel coronavirus is new, no one knows yet what level of vaccination or natural immunity will be needed to protect the whole population. Flu, for example, needs at least 90%, and that almost never happens. But 80% against the coronavirus would be a good start, Kesterman said.
“Unfortunately,” he said, “each day we aren’t at 80%, we allow for the virus to develop and spread.”
“It’s a moving target,” Schroder said. “The virus mutates, so the number changes.” Before the delta surge, Schroder said, the estimate was that herd immunity could be as low as 80%. “It’s higher now, likely in the 90s,” but epidemiologists don’t know yet how much immunity has arisen in from those who’ve were infected then sick with COVID-19 and have recovered.
A boost to the vaccination effort would be inoculating children as young as 5. The federal government has not decided on that goal yet, although Kesterman said he hopes that by Halloween, the county will have the shots for more children; the vaccine is now available to anyone age 12 or older.
The pandemic numbers in Hamilton County looked better Wednesday. Though 8,100 people have COVID-19 now, that’s a drop from 8,900 last week. The daily case rate peaked on Sept. 16 at 419; on Wednesday, it was 291. The testing positivity rate has come down to 9.7% from more than 11% two weeks ago. “It’s also a good indicator that things are slowing down, but it’s still elevated,” Kesterman said.
Hospitalizations and deaths, while still high, had come down from mid-September peaks, he said. More than 500 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 as of Tuesday in the Cincinnati region.
The region's hospitals are running at 96% capacity in their intensive care unit beds and 95% of medical-surgical meds, according to the Health Collaborative's situational dashboard.
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