When I first saw the Houston Texans might have to consider trading purportedly disenfranchised franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson, I scoffed.
If the three-time Pro Bowler isn't one of the NFL's top-five quarterbacks, he's certainly no worse than seventh. In terms of ascending players you'd want to build around, definitely top five.
And with apologies to declining J.J. Watt, Watson and left tackle Laremy Tunsil are the only foundational players Houston has. Therefore, new general manager Nick Caserio would seemingly be out of his mind to offload Watson, who signed a four-year, $156 million extension in September – it doesn't kick in until the 2022 season – a deal that trails only reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes in terms of total and average annual NFL compensation.
Yet the new GM may be backed into a corner dealing with a problem he didn't create.
According to multiple reports, Watson is furious about the way the franchise has conducted its search to replenish the front office – specifically its belated attempt to interview Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy for the head coaching post – and upset by the organization's lack of commitment to the social justice movement.
Owner Cal McNair was in damage control mode at Caserio's introductory press conference earlier this month, saying, "I've come to understand that it's been reported that Deshaun feels left out of the (hiring) process, but he and I had several visits and I understood his point of view before meeting with candidates. I've reached out to Deshaun about Nick's hire and I look forward to him getting back to me when he returns from his vacation."
Caserio could only praise Watson, offering: "He's our quarterback."
Watson hasn't said much since the season ended, offering a few cryptic tweets ... and one explicit one Monday urging Houston fans who wanted to march in support of him to stay home in the name of public health.
Obviously, when there are smoke signals on social media, a figurative fire often follows.
It's natural to wonder if Caserio would have taken charge of a club largely bereft of talent, draft currency and salary cap space in the wake of Bill O'Brien's tenure had he known how unhappy Watson apparently is.
But if the quarterback can't be placated, and the new GM goes full NFL 9-1-1? At least Caserio could draw comfort knowing he could probably engage nearly half the league in a bid to, well, up the bidding on Watson – he has plenty of leverage himself given the no-trade clause in his agreement – though any blockbuster would cost Houston another $21 million or so in dead cap space. (In for a dime, in for $21M, right, Nick?)
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So when I saw one betting outlet offering Watson trade odds for all 31 NFL teams, the obvious reaction was to have fun with this whole debacle and do a league-wide reality check. If Watson does indeed force his way out of Houston, here's a viability ranking of every other team as it pertains to obtaining him – listed from ludicrous to lovely.
Ludicrous
31. Kansas City Chiefs: They're completely committed to Mahomes, 25, the reigning Super Bowl MVP and 2018 league MVP. Next.
30. Buffalo Bills: The Mafia – not to mention the organization – is blissfully wed to Josh Allen, thank you very much.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Watson is a far better passer at this point than 2019 league MVP Lamar Jackson. That doesn't mean Baltimore would swap the man who's arguably the league's most dynamic threat ... especially given Jackson (currently) makes (relatively) far less money.
28. Los Angeles Rams: They have no first-round pick and an albatross contract belonging to QB Jared Goff – his four-year, $134 million extension kicks in this year – so little reason for Caserio to answer the phone.
27. Green Bay Packers: They've got their MVP-caliber quarterback of the present (Aaron Rodgers) and, perhaps regrettably at this point, their quarterback of the future (?) in 2020 first-rounder Jordan Love.
26. Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson and Watson are compensated similarly. But Seattle would incur an unsightly $39 million cap charge to do a trade – not to mention lost draft resources – to otherwise make a largely lateral move ... aside from the fact that Watson is nearly seven years younger than Wilson. Even if the Seahawks wanted to move Wilson, his no-trade clause would likely make it essentially impossible.
25. Tennessee Titans: Division rival (and civic enemy) ... so forget it. (Unless the folks in Nashville are offering QB Ryan Tannehill, a Texas A&M guy, RB Derrick Henry, former Texans assistant Mike Vrabel, draft picks ... and permission to use Oilers uniforms as throwbacks.)
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Divisional rival ... so forget it. (Unless Urban Meyer is offering this year's Trevor Lawrence pick, which seems pretty much divorced from reality.)
23. Indianapolis Colts: Division rival ... so forget it. (And why would Caserio solve the one area vexing highly capable Colts counterpart Chris Ballard through no fault of his own?)
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Given Justin Herbert seems perched to collect offensive rookie of the year honors and likely to be on a cost effective deal for another two to three years, the focus of GM Tom Telesco and new coach Brandon Staley should rightly be elsewhere.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: They don't really do the whole trade thing. Even if Caserio got them on the horn, why would a team that just drafted local guy Joe Burrow No. 1 listen?
20. Arizona Cardinals: Much as GM Steve Keim might enjoy dealing with the team that gifted him WR DeAndre Hopkins, the Cards are in good shape with Kyler Murray just two years into his rookie contract.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Looks like they'll be bringing Tom Brady and the band back for at least 2022 ... and maybe until TB12 turns 50.
Passing fancy
18. New Orleans Saints: Sean Payton would probably love a seamless transition from Drew Brees. Unfortunately, the Saints generally draft at the bottom of the first round (28th this year), and their cap is in shambles. Untenable.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Though Watson would be an upgrade over underrated Derek Carr, whose brother David was ruined by the Texans years ago, offense ain't the reason the Silver and Black have been coming up snake eyes.
16. Cleveland Browns: Fun to consider what this team could become with a more multi-faceted QB than Baker Mayfield. But the Texans would have to get a lot more in return than the native Texan – and given the course Kevin Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry have charted in Cleveland, hard to see them sacrificing their ability to build out the roster even for a player of Watson's caliber.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Minkah Fitzpatrick opportunity aside, they're typically very tight-fisted with high draft choices. Even if Mike Tomlin and GM Kevin Colbert wanted to pursue a golden opportunity to supplant Ben Roethlisberger, who will be 39 in March, they'd have to blow up a chunk of Pittsburgh's roster to accommodate Watson's salary.
14. New England Patriots: Caserio should know how to get his longtime employer on speed dial. But, much as he might like a comprehensive fix to his quarterback conundrum, Bill Belichick – assuming he doesn't adopt a short-term outlook – has little to offer in terms of budding talent or blue-chip picks a transaction involving Watson would require.
13. New York Giants: Opening talks with the No. 11 pick and Daniel Jones seems like a negotiation headed nowhere.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Opening talks with the No. 14 pick and Kirk Cousins (also) seems like a negotiation headed nowhere.
11. Detroit Lions: Opening talks with the No. 7 pick and Matthew Stafford (also) seems like a negotiation headed nowhere, especially since new Lions GM Brad Holmes is not in a quick-fix undertaking.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Opening talks with the No. 6 pick and Carson Wentz (also) seems like a negotiation headed nowhere. (Though perhaps Jalen Hurts would stir a preliminary conversation?)
Intriguing
9. Denver Broncos: Doubtful the first thing newly hired GM George Paton wants to do is compromise his fairly appealing roster and player acquisition flexibility ... even if to fix the one position predecessor John Elway never could stabilize post-Peyton Manning.
8. Dallas Cowboys: All signs indicate they'll eventually get a long-term deal done with pending free agent Dak Prescott, who wouldn't cost Jerry Jones anything more than the hefty paychecks that are coming to Prescott one way or another. Still, it would be unlike Jones to not at least have a backroom skull session to explore the Watson scenario which – even though he could likely fit within Dallas' salary structure as snugly as Prescott – would almost surely be cost prohibitive in terms of assets that would have to be shipped to Houston.
7. Washington Football Team: They've lacked stability under center pretty much since Joe Gibbs' first retirement in 1993. Watson would be a worthy solution to the newly crowned NFC East champs ... but he'd surely cost some combination of draft bounty and younger, cheaper players the caliber of DE Chase Young and WR Terry McLaurin.
6. Chicago Bears: This would be a moot discussion had GM Ryan Pace traded up to draft Watson (or Mahomes) in 2017 rather than Mitchell Trubisky. Alas ... Now the Bears clearly have a dilemma that Watson would immediately resolve. Pace, who's finally paid off his Khalil Mack debt, seems to be on a short leash – so why not mortgage more first-rounders in what might be a necessary gambit?
5. Atlanta Falcons: They'd be great for Watson, who grew up in nearby Gainesville, Georgia, and could enjoy a fresh start under new coach Arthur Smith – he vexed Houston from Tennessee's sideline the past two years. But Atlanta would have to eat a cap hit north of $40 million to trade Matt Ryan – not to mention significant salary reconfigurations – and would certainly have to part with a boatload of picks (including the No. 4 selection in 2021) and maybe building blocks like WR Calvin Ridley and/or CB A.J. Terrell. All sides would have to swallow hard, but maybe?
Lovely
4. Carolina Panthers: Charlotte is fairly close to Gainesville, and the cap calculus is much easier for the Panthers to navigate. They'd certainly have to ante up numerous picks (including No. 8 this year), placeholder QB Teddy Bridgewater and maybe some promising youngsters – LB/S Jeremy Chinn? DE Brian Burns? But if it means teaming Watson with RB Christian McCaffrey, WR DJ Moore and coach Matt Rhule, who has the job security to make such a bold move, why not? Especially when you can reel in all those Clemson fans ...
3. San Francisco 49ers: They're constantly fielding rumors about Jimmy Garoppolo – who, incidentally, has two years remaining on his deal and wouldn't cost the Niners even $3 million in dead cap dollars to trade. The question is what else would GM John Lynch, who's hardly afraid of a calculated risk, be willing to provide? He'd have to package more picks than the No. 12 selection, while likely giving Caserio some options among upcoming players like WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, DT Javon Kinlaw ... heck, maybe even DE Nick Bosa. Unique dynamic that would demand creativity – but Watson is worth some outside-the-box thinking.
2. New York Jets: Would Caserio arm the Pats' longtime rivals (to the degree this is actually a rivalry) with No. 4? The Jets own the second pick of this year's draft plus Seattle's first- and third-rounders and also have the Seahawks' No. 1 choice next year (thanks, Jamal Adams). New York could send QB Sam Darnold to Houston – he could be a tantalizing reclamation project amid a roster rebuild – and maybe even be coerced into surrendering stud DL Quinnen Williams, 23. Compelling options for both sides.
1. Miami Dolphins: The symmetry might be too much to pass up. Imagine if Caserio could reclaim – at the very least – the Round 1 (No. 3 overall) and Round 2 selections O'Brien exported as part of the deal for Tunsil right before the 2019 season – while presumably also flipping Watson for Tua Tagovailoa. For an ascending team like the Fins and a decimated one like the Texans, could be the perfect marriage for all parties.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.
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