Whether it's politics or college football, polls are still an inexact science that try to predict outcomes.
So while there are 25 teams able to celebrate their inclusion in the preseason USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll this season, there is also reason for hesitation. Many of them won't be there when the season ends.
In the past three seasons, an average of 10 teams ranked in the preseason missed out on the final poll. That's only a 60% success rate. That doesn't account for other teams that started high and finished lower in the Top 25.
So the question is not if there are overrated teams in this year's preseason poll, but which ones are overrated? Five teams immediately come to mind.
No. 7 Notre Dame
Yes, the Fighting Irish have not come close in their two College Football Playoff appearances in the past three years, but if you take a step back you can appreciate their success in that span. Brian Kelly's team has gone 33-5 and finished in the top five twice. It's not a surprise to see them firmly in the preseason top 10 this year.
However, this looks like a step-back year with so many issues to resolve. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is expected to be the replacement for outgoing quarterback Ian Book, who led Notre Dame to those two playoff berths. After missing last season with injury, Coan has to get settled in quickly as the leader of the offense. Around him some receivers need to be developed and the offensive line has major holes to fill.
The defense brings in new coordinator Marcus Freeman from Cincinnati, but loses star Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and two of of its other top five tacklers. This will be another good group. It just isn't enough to carry the team against tough opponents with the offense also regressing. Expect an upset or two to knock the Irish out of the playoff, especially with a tough schedule in the first half that includes Cincinnati and Wisconsin.
No. 14 Southern California
There are two ways to look at the Trojans. They went undefeated in the regular season and lost a close Pac-12 championship game to Oregon. Not bad. Looking beneath the surface, however, they played just six games during the pandemic season and three of their five wins were by a combined 10 points that required fourth-quarter comebacks.
Can they continue to win those close games this season? The law of averages would say no. Even with QB Kedon Slovis, one of the preseason favorites for the Heisman Trophy, leading the offense, USC still has questions at running back, receiver and offensive line to answer. The ground attack is a particular area for improvement after averaging just 97.3 yards per game.
The defense benefitted from creating 16 turnovers that helped hide some of its issues. Talanoa Hufanga contributed four interceptions to the takeaways, but the Pac-12 defensive player of the year won't be part of this year's secondary. Up front, the run defense will need to get better. The one saving grace for the Trojans is a schedule that avoids Washington and Oregon from the North division, but the South is super competitive with Arizona State, UCLA and Utah nipping at their heels. There won't be any unbeaten regular season this year and there could be some unexpected defeats.
THE POLL: From No. 1 Alabama to No. 25 Mississippi
ANALYSIS: Closer look at what the Top 25 teams have to do to contend
FIVE BIGGEST SNUBS: Michigan headlines list of teams that didn't crack Top 25
No. 16 Miami (Florida)
The concerns for the Hurricanes start at quarterback. D'Eriq King went down with a knee injury in the bowl game and his status for the opener against Alabama is uncertain. There's no experience behind King, so that's something to watch even if he is healthy for Week 1. More will be needed from the running game to keep defenses honest and take some of the pressure off King. Charleston Rambo is projected as a starting receiver, but arrives from Oklahoma after a disappointing campaign.
Worries on defense led coach Manny Diaz to take over calling plays for the unit this season. His first order of business is to sort out the front seven that lost its top pass rushers and needs to be better against the run. The biggest challenge will be improvement against top competition. In its three toughest ACC games in 2020, the Hurricanes allowed 145 points and were blown out in two of them.
While a potential loss in the opener to the Crimson Tide wouldn't be a killer, there's other difficult games against Michigan State and Appalachian State that could get the season off on the wrong foot before the ACC program starts.
No. 19 Texas
Expectations are always high for the Longhorns, so don't expect much of a honeymoon for coach Steve Sarkisian. Difficulties come right away.
First, he must figure out his quarterback situation with four-year starter Sam Ehlinger off to the NFL. Neither Casey Thompson nor Hudson Card have seen significant action except for Thompson's impressive second half of last year's bowl game. Add to the equation that Sarkisian's offense isn't an exact fit for what was run the past four years under Tom Herman and there are some expected growing pains. The problem is that there isn't much time for that with No. 23 Louisiana-Lafayette visiting in the opener and a trip to Arkansas the following week.
New defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has his own challenges. Texas hasn't broken the top 50 in scoring defense in the past three years. With all the other Big 12 contenders returning starting quarterbacks, more will be expected out of this group to possibly contend in the league.
No. 25 Mississippi
If only offense wins games then it's possible the Rebels could finish much higher than their starting point after raking third in total offense last season. The problem is that defense is also an important factor.
Ole Miss allowed more than 38 points per game and finished 117th in scoring defense last season. Though several starters return, this is a case where maybe that isn't such a good thing. Major improvement will be needed to slow opponents.
Even on offense, there are some concerns. QB Matt Corral has to limit mistakes after 14 interceptions, including six in a loss to Arkansas. Top receiver Elijah Moore will not be easily replaced. And the SEC West should be much stronger with LSU and Auburn rebounding. The road isn't going to be easy for the Rebels.
Follow colleges reporter Erick Smith on Twitter @ericksmith
