Without fail, FC Cincinnati's first two Major League Soccer campaigns saw the club pull to within shouting distance of playoff contention.
If FCC is to make a playoff push in 2021, the club's showing over the next four matches could have a big say in whether that comes to fruition.
Following the now-concluded international break, FC Cincinnati resumes league play against Colorado Rapids Saturday, June 19, at what's expected to be a full or nearly full TQL Stadium, a first for the club in the vaccine era of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Then the matches come thick and fast. The test against Colorado begins a Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday trio of games followed by a July 3 evening clash at Houston Dynamo FC, FCC's only road match against a Western Conference opponent in 2021.
FCC doesn't look to be playoff-caliber at the moment after starting the season with a 1-4-1 record, but the schedule-makers weren't especially kind to Cincinnati.
The first six matches were all against MLS Cup playoff-qualifying sides from 2020. All but one of those teams is again in a playoff position, and the six opponents have a combined 18-11-16 record so far in 2021.
The next four opponents are a comparatively light lift and have a combined 9-14-6 record. There should be points to be had for FC Cincinnati over this stretch, especially against Chicago Fire FC Wednesday, June 16.
Second-from-bottom Chicago is FCC’s nearest competitor in the Eastern Conference table and, having played one further game than Cincinnati, actually have fewer points per match. This could be considered a "must-win" game for FCC; you typically have to handle the opponents nearest to you in the standings if you want to pass them eventually.
Nothing's come easy for FC Cincinnati in MLS, of course, and results against these four opponents won't be any different, but being the league of parity that MLS is, a few quick results could boost the fortunes of the club significantly.
A lot can change with just one win in this league. Take the 2019 FCC team for example, which on July 13, 2019, beat Chicago Fire in Bridgeview, Illinois, to briefly catch a glimpse of the Eastern Conference playoff race.
FC Cincinnati's upcoming schedule:
• Saturday vs. Colorado Rapids - TQL Stadium, 7:30 p.m. ET
• June 23 @ Chicago Fire FC - Soldier Field, 8 p.m. ET
• June 26 @ Toronto FC - Venue TBD, 7 p.m.
• July 3 @ Houston Dynamo FC - BBVA Stadium, 8:30 p.m. ET
The win took FCC to what was still an unimpressive 5-13-2 league record, but that was enough to pull Cincinnati to within nine points of the east's seventh and final playoff spot with 14 matches remaining at that point.
Of course, few, if any, commentators and fans expected FC Cincinnati to get into the playoffs and the club finished last in MLS. But one result in a season that held few positives for FCC was enough to raise a few eyebrows at the time.
In mid-October last season, a home win last season in the "Hell is Real Derby" at Nippert Stadium also opened up playoff possibilities briefly for FCC.
That window also slammed shut almost as soon as it opened, but there's no question that the victory opened a path for FC Cincinnati to compete in the MLS Cup playoffs, albeit it an unlikely one.
More:How FC Cincinnati, head coach Jaap Stam is managing the roster during international break
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The point, of course, is that if FC Cincinnati wants to stay relevant into the summer, it can, and it won't have to take down the league's best to do it. The next few weeks could make for more meaningful matches relative to the standings in the months ahead.
Maybe the playoff picture is a laughable suggestion to some supporters. The team is, after all, back in the Eastern Conference cellar and needs to earn some respect, as multiple team leaders have said publicly.
At the very least, this busy period of four games coming out of the international break is going to reveal much about the 2021 roster.
Depth will be tested. Players like Isaac Atanga, Edgar Castillo, Tom Pettersson and others will likely get opportunities to show themselves during the stretch next week.
That will provide observers, pundits and supporters alike with a more complete picture of the composition of the 2021 roster and opportunities to evaluate the work done to improve this year's team.
That should provide some insight into whether FC Cincinnati is undertaking big moves in the upcoming transfer windows, or merely tweaking a team rounding into shape.
By the end of the upcoming four-game swing, FC Cincinnati will also have completed its 10th match of the season. Traditionally, 10 matches have been enough of a sample size to evaluate this club's capabilities.
That was true in 2019 and in 2020, and while those seasons ebbed and flowed deeper into the summer and autumn, observers knew enough after 10 matches to reasonably project out how the rest of those years would go.
What was true of FC Cincinnati 10 matches into 2019 and 2020, respectively, largely held through the end of those seasons.
So, pay attention over the next four matches. Whether you liked what you saw over the opening six games of FCC's season or took a skeptical position on the club, what comes next could tell the tale of 2021 at much greater length and depth.
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