The $50 million annual price tag is getting most of the attention, but the cost isn’t the only thing about Issue 3 Cincinnati voters are debating ahead of Tuesday’s election.
The other big question is just as divisive: How serious is the affordable housing problem that Issue 3 is supposed to solve? Supporters and opponents of the proposed charter amendment have been going back and forth about this for weeks.
Much of the debate has focused on a 2017 study that estimated Cincinnati needs about 28,000 more affordable housing units for poor and working-class families. A competing analysis recently asserted the number is closer to 8,000 units.
Affordable housing: Exactly what is it? (Probably not what you think.)
The Enquirer tackled the affordable housing question with a different approach last year. Rather than focus exclusively on housing units, The Enquirer’s analysis dived deep into U.S. Census estimates to determine how many people struggle to pay the rent.
The conclusion: Roughly 88,000 city residents are in at least some danger of losing the roofs over their heads every month.
So where does that number come from?
Let’s start with some background on housing in Cincinnati. According to U.S. Census estimates from 2014 to 2018, which The Enquirer used in its calculations, renters account for 62% of city households.
That’s a lot of renters. So many, in fact, that Cincinnati ranks ninth in the nation among cities of more than 250,000 residents in renters per capita, right behind coastal giants such as New York, Miami and San Francisco.
Cincinnati’s large renter population is a big deal because Census estimates show almost half the city’s rental units are, by government standards, home to “burdened” renters, or renters who spend 30% or more of their income on rent.
About 39,000 of Cincinnati’s rental units, which account for 29.3% of all occupied housing units in the city, are considered burdened by the Census.
Based on Cincinnati’s estimated population of 300,357, that means about 88,000 men, women and children live in those 39,000 burdened rental units.
Being at risk of losing a home isn't the same as losing one, of course. Some burdened renters manage better than others to keep their heads above water, but it's not easy. The Enquirer's analysis found about 4,500 Cincinnati renters were forced out by eviction every year.
Rents are low here, but so are incomes
It’s fair to ask why so many people struggle to pay the rent in a city where the average rent is generally considered low, about $710 a month. The answer is the city’s median income also is low, about $38,500 a year.
For thousands of Cincinnatians, $710 a month is not affordable.
It's true that people live in homes that aren't considered affordable for their income all the time. They make it work by living paycheck to paycheck instead of saving money, or by skipping the occasional car payment, or by cutting back on other essentials, such as food and clothing.
But living that way can create financial strain and family instability. Affordable housing is about more than just whether families have a home. It's about how much they must spend to keep one.
Because the problem is so complicated, determining how much more affordable housing is needed isn’t easy. Calculations like those done by The Enquirer, or by others who have studied the issue, always come with caveats.
The U.S. Census estimates used by The Enquirer are based on a five-year rolling average from 2014 to 2018, so they are considered reliable indicators that don’t fluctuate wildly from year to year. But they’re still estimates, not a precise count of people and housing units.
The standard for “burdened” renters also is open to some debate because 30% of income doesn’t mean the same thing to everyone. A single woman in her twenties might be fine paying almost one-third of her income on rent, while a family of four with a sick child or a broken-down car might be on the brink of eviction.
Where people live in the city matters, too. The Enquirer analysis found higher concentrations of burdened renters in Cincinnati’s western, central and northern neighborhoods than in its eastern neighborhoods, so the availability of affordable housing and the need for it can be dramatically different across the city.
There's even disagreement among some about the definition of affordable housing and whether the government's classifications miss the mark.
The bottom line is there always will be room to quibble about the data. Numbers can change and interpretations can vary. But The Enquirer’s research last year showed affordable housing is a real problem for tens of thousands of city residents.
Whether Issue 3 is the best solution to the problem is another matter. Voters will make that call on Tuesday.
