From Major League Baseball’s lockout and the lack of a free agent signing in the first two months of the offseason, there wasn’t much buzz surrounding the Cincinnati Reds at the end of the calendar year.
Maybe the first few months of 2022 will change that.
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As the lockout continues to plague the sport, here's an attempt at answering some frequently asked questions:
Q: When will the lockout end?
There haven’t been any major negotiations between the two sides since the owners locked out the players on Dec. 2. There are legal reasons the owners began the lockout immediately after the collective bargaining agreement expired, but there’s been no urgency since the start of the lockout.
Commissioner Rob Manfred wrote in his letter to fans announcing the lockout, “we are taking this step now because it accelerates the urgency for an agreement” and “MLB is ready to work around the clock.” One month later and the league hasn’t accomplished anything with MLB Network showing reruns and the league’s social media accounts essentially dormant.
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It’s too early to say whether the lockout will impact the start of the regular season and without any current negotiations, it’s hard to know whether it’s realistic for spring training to begin on time in mid-February. A delay to the start of the season would have devastating consequences for a sport that’s seemingly fallen below the NFL and NBA in terms of pro sports popularity. The power brokers in the negotiations know the high stakes – it’s still a sport that generates $10 billion in revenue – but there hasn’t been anything in the past month that has generated optimism.
Q: Are the Reds rebuilding once again?
The Reds are in a precarious position with two main paths: Try to compete for a playoff spot with a lower payroll, and seemingly a weaker roster than last season, or trade one of their best players to try to make their roster better for 2023 or 2024.
In the first week of the offseason, the Reds shaved $33.5 million from their 2022 payroll when they traded Tucker Barnhart, placed Wade Miley on waivers and saw Nick Castellanos opt out of the final two years of his contract. The team carried a payroll of about $130 million at the end of last season and they’re currently sitting around $115 million.
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The Reds were one of three teams, along with Cleveland and Oakland, who didn’t sign a free agent prior to the lockout. They aren’t expected to make any significant additions following the lockout, barring a change in ownership’s thinking, but they don’t seem to be in a situation where they’ll cut costs simply to lower payroll.
If the latter was the case, the Reds may have acted differently when they were required to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Last winter, the Reds cut Curt Casali, Archie Bradley, Brian Goodwin and traded closer Raisel Iglesias in a salary dump. Tyler Naquin, a free agent after the 2022 season, will likely command around $3.5-4 million and Amir Garrett could draw $1.8-2.5 million, but the Reds kept both players under contract.
Q: So, what will the Reds do?
The Reds listened to trade offers for their top trade chips, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray, ahead of the lockout. Castillo and Mahle are two years from free agency, so the Reds’ asking price is sky high.
Gray, among the three pitchers, seems the most likely to be traded, if the Reds indeed part with one of their starters. Gray is in the final guaranteed season of his contract, with a team option for 2023, and if the Reds determine they aren’t likely to compete for a playoff spot with their current roster and payroll, then they seem unlikely to build around a 32-year-old pitcher.
Another option is keeping all three starters and playing out the first half of the season ahead of the trade deadline. The Reds incurred some notable losses on their roster, but it’s still a team that won 83 games last year.
There are some contracts that don’t fit well with their current plans. Mike Moustakas will likely enter the season as the leading candidate for designated hitter and Shogo Akiyama enters spring as a fifth outfielder, but General Manager Nick Krall said earlier in the offseason the Reds aren’t trading prospects to entice teams to take a bigger contract. The same is likely true with including a bigger contract in a potential trade for one of their starting pitchers.
Q: Why are the Reds even considering another rebuild?
There was clearly a change in ownership’s thinking from pre-pandemic to now. The Reds traded from their farm system, spent heavily in free agency and were set to enter the 2020 season with a record payroll. It was an all-in push to win immediately.
Then the pandemic hit, teams played a season without fans and the Reds reversed course after making the playoffs in the 60-game 2020 season. They shed payroll last winter, losing players in the bullpen that directly impacted their playoff chances last season, and they’re shedding payroll again this winter.
The Reds have an improved farm system and that’s clearly where they want to build the organization. How quick the Reds can turn into contenders will depend on players like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Austin Hendrick, Matt McLain, Graham Ashcraft and Elly De La Cruz turning into MLB contributors. Can Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Vladimir Gutierrez and Tony Santillan take another step forward? Will Jose Barrero reach his star potential?
Q: What is there to be excited about next season?
It’s been a rough winter for the Reds fanbase, which hoped the organization would add instead of subtracting from a team that fell short of the playoffs. The Reds seem clearly behind the Milwaukee Brewers and Cardinals in the National League Central’s pecking order, fighting for third place with the Chicago Cubs.
Depth is probably the team’s biggest issue at this point, but the Reds have players to watch and build around. If Eugenio Suárez, Nick Senzel or Moustakas have success this year, maybe that helps make up for the loss of Castellanos. Castillo, Gray and Mahle at the top of the rotation is still a strong group. Greene and Lodolo should make their MLB debuts.
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