Over the past year, the nascent labor movements at mighty corporations like Starbucks and Amazon have grabbed national attention. But less well-known is a looming high-stakes clash between one of America's oldest unions and the world's biggest package courier.

Contract negotiations are set to begin in the spring between UPS and the Teamsters Union ahead of their current contract's expiration at the end of July 2023. Already, before the talks have even started, labor experts are predicting that the drivers and package handlers will go on strike.

"The question is how long it will be," said Todd Vachon, professor of Labor Relations at Rutgers. "The union's president ran and won on taking a more militant approach. Even if they're very close [to a deal], the rank and file will be hungry to take on the company."

If that happens, a strike at UPS would affect nearly every household in the country. An estimated 6% of the nation's gross domestic product is moved in UPS trucks every year. The explosive growth of online retail has made the company and its drivers more crucial than ever to the nation's struggling supply chain. Beyond the company's home deliveries, it also delivers many of the goods found in stores, factories and offices.

About 350,000 Teamsters work at UPS as drivers and package sorters out of a global workforce of 534,000 permanent employees. And that's growing fast — the company has added some 72,000 Teamster-represented jobs since the start of the pandemic.

While there are competing services at FedEx, the U.S. Postal Service and Amazon's own delivery service, none of them have the capacity to handle more than a small fraction of the 21.5 million U.S. packages that UPS moves daily.

"We want a contract that provides wins for our employees and that provides UPS the flexibility to stay competitive in a rapidly changing industry," the company said in a statement this month. "UPS and the Teamsters have worked cooperatively for almost 100 years to meet the needs of UPS employees, customers, and the communities where we live and work. We believe we'll continue to find common ground with the Teamsters and reach an agreement that's good for everyone involved."

The union has not gone on strike against UPS since a nearly two-week protest in 1997. If the union does go on strike, it would be the largest strike against a single business in nation's history.

Anger over current contract

There are certainly signs of strain in relations between the company and the union — both its leadership and its rank-and-file members.

A majority of members voted against ratifying the current contract in 2018, only to see the previous Teamster leadership, led by then-President James Hoffa, put it in place because not enough of the membership participated in the ratification vote to trigger a strike.

The union's new president, Sean O'Brien, won his office earlier this year by making the UPS contract a central focus of his campaign. He has vowed to make UPS pay Teamster members far more this time and he often talks about a $300 million strike fund the union has accumulated to pay members in case they go on strike.

"Do our members wake up every day wanting a strike. I'd say no. But are they fed up? Yes they're fed up," O'Brien told CNN Business last week. "Whether or not there is a strike, that's totally up to the company. We're going to utilize as much leverage as we can to get our members the contract they deserve."

UPS said the average pay for its delivery drivers is $95,000 a year, with benefits such as a traditional pension plan, worth an additional $50,000 a year. UPS' semi-tractor drivers are paid even more. That's far higher than most wages at FedEx and Amazon, where many drivers work for small independent contractors.

The current contract expires at 12:01 am on Aug. 1. O'Brien vows the union will not grant any kind of contract extension past that deadline.

And he added that on top of improved pay and benefits, the union will demand better working conditions, including adding air conditioning in the panel trucks used for UPS deliveries which the union says poses a health risk for drivers.

"It's not a heavy lift for the company to install air conditioning," he said. "There's a lot of heat stroke going on."

Record profits at UPS

The company often speaks about how much it values its Teamster-represented workforce.

And in one important way — employment numbers — UPS is one of the best friends labor has in the ranks of U.S. corporate management, despite the obvious tensions. UPS is one of the few unionized employers that is significantly adding payrolls, and to union membership. At other businesses, union membership numbers have been steadily declining or decades.

The increase in Teamsters jobs at UPS has come from the steady growth in online purchases, especially during the pandemic-era surge. Last year, it took only nine months to report what was already a record profit for a full year. UPS ended 2021 with operating income up 50% to $13.1 billion. In the first half of this year, earnings rose another 10% compared with a year ago.

"Everyone keeps getting richer except for our members," said O'Brien.

UPS CEO Carol Tome, who started that job just as the pandemic began, says that the company's union contract is a competitive advantage at a time of worker shortages.

She also is trying to assure both investors and UPS customers that the company will be prepared in case the union does go on strike. She declined to comment on what those preparations are.

"Our goal with the Teamsters is win-win-win," she told investors in July. But she added that UPS is "building contingency plans."

SOMERVILLE, Mass. —

For the last year, UPS driver Tyler Kingsbury has known that of all the stops on his route, the deliveries to JFK Elementary in Somerville, Massachusetts, each day are his most memorable.

Corey Merrill’s third-grade class has snack time at the same time Kingsbury’s truck drives by.

“We started to wave, and he’d honk and, eventually, we decided to try to find out more about him,” she said.

“Like how old am I? What’s my favorite color? When’s my birthday?” Kingsbury said.

Once the students learned his 30th birthday was coming up, they decided to throw him a surprise party.

“I pulled into the parking lot and all the kids were here lined up. They all made signs that said ‘Happy 30^th birthday Tyler!’ They designed hats, they made these incredible stop-action videos, they gave me cupcakes, gifts, snacks,” he said.

Kingsbury said he was blown away not just by the gifts, but by the amount of skill these students showed.

“I bet most people in classes in schools would not throw birthday parties for random people that drive by,” one student said.

But the fact that the students did throw a party for someone they just met made it extra special for Kingsbury.

“It was a moment I’ll remember forever,” he said. “And it was just really incredible.”

ROSWELL, Ga. — Becoming a new mom in the middle of a pandemic was far from what Jessica Kitchel had ever planned. A few weeks before Christmas, this Atlanta-area resident gave birth to her son, Chancy.

"It's been pretty isolating being in the house not being able to leave. And once my husband went back to work, the walls started closing in," Kitchel said.

While mom and baby are perfectly healthy, the holidays and COVID brought about a particularly profound sense of loneliness this year.

It was on one of those rough days in December when Kitchel was waiting for a shipment of Bobbie baby formula for her newborn. When the doorbell rang, she had expected to just find a box, but instead, found a gift waiting to be unwrapped.

In the weeks leading up to Kitchel's delivery, UPS driver Dallen Harrell had noticed the blue stork balloons tied to the family's mailbox. A new dad himself, Harrell decided to leave Kitchel a message as he dropped off her delivery.

In the video message, which has now gone viral, Harrell can be heard saying, "If this is the, 'It’s a Boy House,' I hope all is going well with your newborn. I had a child around the same time you guys did. I hope everything is going good. God bless."

And then the message ended.

"We get deliveries a lot and I’ve never had anyone leave a message. I was blown away. I thought he was like an angel that came to my door," Kitchel said after finding the video.

Just two days after posting the clip to Instagram, Kitchel was able to find Dallen Harrell, the UPS driver who had left the message.

"I was hesitant if I was even at the right house, hesitant if I should say something," Harrell said about the video.

Harrell never expected anyone to see his doorbell cam checkup, and he certainly didn’t expect the gifts he’d soon get in return.

After Kitchel shared the video on social media, there was an outpouring of support for Harrell and his new family. Strangers were so moved they ended up buying out Harrell's entire baby registry, which had been sitting untouched for three months.

"He and his fiancé had not had a baby shower. They hadn’t had a lot of gifts given to them. They had made a registry that was untouched," Kitchel explained.

For Harrell, the whole experience has been life-changing. After seeing the video, UPS decided to offer this seasonal driver a full-time job.

In the last month, the video has circulated around the globe, and Harrell hopes it can be the kind of gift which is appreciated year-round.

"I just hope this will restore faith in humanity, and I hope the message behind, people continue to pay it forward."

The last holiday season was far from the most wonderful time of the year for the U.S. Postal Service: Sick and quarantined workers, a flood of packages from shoppers loathe to set foot in stores and a last-minute dump of packages from overwhelmed private shippers.

Postal workers who recall packages and letters piled up in distribution hubs are better prepared this time as they gear up for another pandemic crunch. But low product inventories and port and supply chain disruptions are creating new uncertainty about getting gifts delivered.

Already, workers are seeing a surge in holiday packages that began several weeks ago.

“A lot of the workers are saying, ‘Oh no. Here we go again,’” said Scott Adams, local president of the American Postal Workers Union in Portland.

The U.S. Postal Service and private shippers UPS and FedEx are bolstering their hiring — bringing in about 230,000 temporary workers — and taking other steps to ensure they don’t become overwhelmed by packages.

Nearly 3.4 billion parcels are expected to crisscross the country this holiday season, representing an estimated increase of about 400 million compared to last year, said Satish Jindel, from Pennsylvania-based ShipMatrix, which analyzes shipping package data.

When cards and letters are included, the U.S. Postal Service said it'll be delivering more than 12 billion items.

“The pandemic is still here. The supply chain is a challenge that’s going to impact how people shop and how products move,” said Mark Dimondstein, president of the American Postal Workers Union, which represents more than 200,000 postal workers.

Despite the precarious situation, the Postal Service, UPS and FedEx are in better shape to handle the peak volume, and several trends could work in their favor, Jindel said.

More people are shopping in stores compared to last year, and people have been placing online orders earlier because they’re keenly aware of supply chain problems, Jindel said. Also, with workers returning to offices, there are fewer office supply shipments being made to homes, he said.

Most importantly, the shippers are adapting after their rough-and-tumble experience last year, he said.

U.S. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, who faced withering criticism last year but reported on-time improvements and reduced operating losses this month, says the service is ready for the crunch.

“We are ready, so send us your packages and your mail,” he said.

A year ago, more than a third of Postal Service first-class mail was late by the time Christmas arrived.

Tractor-trailers stuffed with mail were left idling outside some postal-sorting facilities. Packages and letters piled up in distribution hubs. Delays grew by days, and then weeks, in many instances.

Two things were painfully obvious. More workers and more space were needed — and both are being addressed.

To get a handle of the volume, the Postal Service is transitioning more than 30,000 non-career employees to the ranks of career employees by peak season, hiring 40,000 seasonal employees, and leasing extra space at more than 100 locations to ensure there’s room for parcels.

The Postal Service installed more than 100 new package sorting machines as of early November, part of $40 billion of planned investment over 10 years. Also, more than 50 package systems capable of sorting large packages are expected to be deployed before December. Combined, these expand capacity by an additional 4.5 million packages per day, officials said.

UPS, for its part, is hiring more than 100,000 seasonal employees across the country and continues to add aircraft and automation. It expects nearly 90% of its packages to flow through automated facilities by year’s end.

FedEx, meanwhile, is in the process of boosting its nationwide workforce by 90,000 across its operating companies. Most of those new workers are expected to remain after the holidays, the company said.

Despite all those extra workers, the shippers agree that this is not the year for shoppers to procrastinate.

“Complete your holiday shopping as soon as possible,” said Jim Mayer, spokesperson for UPS.

The three major shipping services in the U.S. announced their cut-off dates to ensure packages arrive by Christmas.

The United States Postal Service, which began slowing mail deliveries, says it’s essential to send packages early.

“The earlier you send, the better: Don’t delay, mail and ship today,” USPS says on its website.

USPS Shipping Deadlines

• Retail Ground — Wed., Dec. 15
• First-Class Mail — Fri., Dec. 17
• Priority Mail — Sat., Dec. 18
• Priority Mail Express — Thurs., Dec. 23

FedEx is asking customers to plan ahead because they are handling more shipments than ever.

FedEx Shipping Deadlines

• FedEx Ground Economy — Thurs., Dec. 9
• FedEx Ground and Home Delivery — Wed., Dec. 15
• Express Saver — Tues., Dec. 21
• 2Day & 2Day AM — Wed., Dec. 22
• FedEx Same Day — Fri., Dec. 24

UPS

• Ground shipping — Check ups.com/ctc for quote
• 3 Day Select — Tues., Dec. 21
• 2 Day Air — Wed., Dec. 22
• Next Day Air — Thurs., Dec. 23