ROCKVILLE, Md. — It’s what you don’t see on the shelves in this warehouse that gets Dana Marlowe fired up.

“I could do a dance on the shelf; it's so vacant,” she said.

Marlowe is founder and executive director of the nonprofit I Support The Girls.

“We are a nonprofit that focuses on providing basic items around dignity, specifically menstrual hygiene products,” she explained.

The nonprofit distributes those products to homeless and domestic violence shelters. During normal times, the warehouse at their Rockville, Maryland, headquarters would be stocked to the rafters.

These are not normal times.

“The shelves where tampons used to be are now empty,” Marlowe said. “And I think tampons are just one of those unique items that have been economically hit hard because of supply chain issues.”

Since the start of the pandemic in 2020, the words “supply chain issues” have become shorthand for “not available.” However, when someone needs period products, “not available” is not an option.

That’s where I Support The Girls usually comes in to help, but lately, that’s become increasingly difficult.

“We've had a couple hiccups with the supply chain, whether we were trying to receive products that were being donated from manufacturers from overseas or more recently with tampons,” she said.

Now, along with the supply chain, there is another pressure: inflation.

“We saw some prices just in the last few weeks where a typical box of standard, your over-the-counter pharmacy tampons, going for $50, $60, $70,” Marlowe said. “These tampons are not made of gold. These are not tampons that are going to suddenly do your laundry. They're just inflated at such an egregious rate.”

Since 2015, the more than 50 chapters around the country of I Support The Girls donated 19 million products to more than 3,600 social services agencies.

This year is different, though. Donations of period products are down 50% compared to this time last year and down 67% from 2020.

“If there's less being given to us, we can only donate what we receive,” Marlowe said.

Even smaller nonprofits are getting hit hard, too.

“This will last us, most likely, less than a month,” said John Voorhees, with Manna Ministry in Virginia, as he motioned to a mostly empty shelf. “We’re trying to help these women out for 40 days, so the women out there can see there really is not that much there.”

Back at the I Support The Girls warehouse, Dana Marlowe is hoping more donations come in soon, especially as they face back-to-school time and students in need.

“Particularly girls in middle school and high school can continue to get their education,” she said, “and not miss math class or science because they have their period.”

Whether it’s real or artificial, the cost of your Christmas tree could go up this year.

“Like all areas of agriculture, real Christmas tree reproduction, the costs are up,” said Marsha Gray, the executive director of the Real Christmas Tree Board. The organization represents companies that produce real Christmas trees grown in the U.S., and those that are imported.

Gray said input costs for these companies are up 11 to 20 percent. This includes things like fuel, fertilizer, and labor. The wholesale price of a tree will go up 5 to 15 percent, according to a survey of wholesalers by the Real Christmas Tree Board. That doesn’t necessarily mean that cost will be passed on to the consumer.

“Some of those costs are probably absorbing, but a certain amount of it they are passing on to those retailers who then, in turn, need to decide what retail price they’re going to charge,” she said.

According to a survey by the Real Christmas Tree Board, consumers expect inflation to impact real Christmas tree costs by approximately $4 to $12 per tree compared to last year.

“Prices, of course, to move everything are up, so that's one of those things that we consider an input cost but we’re really not expecting any real supply chain problems,” Gray said.

She explained that supply shouldn’t be an issue this year.

“We do have a tighter supply and have had a tighter supply for about 5 to 7 years. Not a big surprise because it takes us 10 years to produce that tree and turn it around. We can't change on a dime,” she said.

What about artificial trees? Last year, the industry was disrupted by supply chain problems.

“Last year, in 2021, the artificial Christmas tree industry had a really tough time because, with the supply chain delays, still many of us got our product late. At Balsam Hill we had 500 containers of Christmas trees and holiday decor come after Christmas,” said Mac Harman, the founder and CEO of Balsam Hill.

During the last holiday season, stores and companies didn’t have enough goods. Harman said for this year’s supply, companies put in orders for less stock. However, this was all purchased during a time when international cargo freight prices were at a high, which could be reflected in the prices consumers see this season.

Experts are still waiting to see if there will be a shortage of artificial trees this year. For now, stores have the stock they need, but prices could fluctuate, according to Harman.

There are some ways you can save regardless.

“Any time you're looking for an artificial Christmas tree, you want to shop early, especially this year,” said Harman. “What we’re seeing this year is that consumers are shopping later for their artificial Christmas trees and their holiday decor.”

Balsam Hill estimates people keep artificial trees for about 10 years.

The turbulence we’ve seen in pricing and supply is more likely to level out next year. “We expect that prices will come down next year because the supply chain costs are down and also raw material costs are down. But everything that was purchased this year was purchased so long ago, prices are up,” Harman said.

If you are purchasing a real Christmas tree, know specific details about height and species before you go pick one out. “Make sure you measure ahead,” Gray said.

She said most tree sellers have websites where you can see what they have and pricing beforehand.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Birdie Hansen stumbled nose-first into her small business during a time when most businesses were standing still.

"It was just a little hobby that I was doing around when everyone was doing their sourdough starters," she said

Her pandemic project turned into Effing Candle Co. in Kansas City, where she and her husband make cozy candles with a big sense of humor.

It’s a business that’s been growing, despite the odds, but as many small businesses can relate, success hasn’t come easily.

"The cost of our materials have definitely gone up this year, our wax our fragrances. Shipping is more expensive. Labels have gone up. Like everything that we touch has gone up in price," she said.

What consumers are feeling in terms of inflation, small businesses feel too. Inflation right now is at 7.7% and, according to Deloitte, that’s reflected in the holiday spending outlook.

Holiday spending is expected to stay stagnant at $1,455 per household, but consumers plan to buy less gifts—nine compared to 16—and will pull back on non-gift spending by 12%.

While low-income earners plan on spending 25% more than last year, high-income earners will most likely spend 7% less.

"Every day was a teachable moment for the last two and a half years," said Larry Wigger, an associate professor of supply chain management at the University of Missouri Kansas City.

Wigger had a lot to talk about in his classroom lately. He says inflation has been made worse by the lack of labor and supply chain disruptions of both the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

"Just when we thought we were gonna recover it, set everybody back again," he said.

Wigger says that it will most likely take big shifts in society until we get back to how things were before the pandemic, including growing interest in blue-collar jobs and figuring out long-term supply solutions. In the meantime, there are opportunities for businesses to get creative to weather the current climate.

"Rethinking how you source your stuff, being creative about your hiring, and really thinking through your job descriptions," he said.

Getting creative is exactly what Birdie has been doing at her candle company.

What has worked in her favor is making sure her products come in a variety of price points, offering big discounts on imperfect products, and online gifts with purchases and free shipping minimums to entice buyers. She also hopes consumers keep small businesses like hers in mind when deciding where to spend this holiday season as every dollar continues to mean so much.

"We are just the ones out here making a product that we love, for consumers that we love," she said.

CINCINNATI —

Don Everett is a Cincinnati Bengals fan determined to take as much Who Dey spirit with him as possible when he leaves Cincinnati in a couple days and returns to his adopted hometown near Denver.

"I got a local bar in Parker, Colorado, that has turned out to be a Cincinnati Super Bowl bar for this one," Everett said.

The bar's owner asked Everett, in the Queen City on a business trip, to bring back whatever he can to make Sunday's showdown against the Los Angeles Rams special.

"The bar is, like, bring me all the jerseys, bring me all the decorations, bring everything you can bring me," Everett said.

That's turned out to be a tall order.

"We got here on Saturday. You couldn’t find anything," Everett said.

Finding food for the perfect party can also be a challenge.

"It seems like everyone ran out of everything on Super Bowl week," Victor Visciani said. "Probably because everyone's ordering everything on Super Bowl week."

Visciani helps run the Holy Grail at The Banks. He said demand for staples like chicken wings means restaurant and bar owners have had to adapt.

"We've had to go with different food options that we didn't go with before, things like that," Visciani said. "So you can find a way around it. It's just a little bit harder than it has been in the past and especially during Super Bowl week."

The fact businesses are being forced to adapt comes as no surprise to Chuck Sox, who studies supply chains in his role at the University of Cincinnati's Lindner College of Business.

"It's concentrated in Cincinnati, in particular, this year, for obvious reasons," Sox said. "Your local store might run out of your favorite brand of beer or might run out of chicken wings. So, you know, it's just important for us to get out early and shop around, see what we can find."

Fortunately, Sox said from an industry standpoint the nation's supply chain is improving and that in-demand food items are generally available. But he said local lines of supply could remain tight since so many Bengals fans are in the market for so many similar items.

The pinch of inflation is creating a crunch for some businesses across the country and across industries. 

Businesses around the United States face a new challenge in this pandemic: raising the price of the products they sell. 

"The rent's going up, the labor's going up, the food cost is going up," said Pete Boland, the managing partner of The Galley and Mary Margaret's Olde Irish Tavern in St. Petersburg, Florida. 

Inflation, Boland said, is a real problem.

"The $3 tacos aren't $3 tacos anymore. The days of $3 beer are long gone, too," said Boland. 

In his business, he said he's looking at the price of things like to-go boxes, fry oil, chicken breasts. Like others, his operating expenses fluctuate with the market. 

"So we're trying to be creative with things like portion control, making sure we're watching people's hours and labor, making sure that if there's a way to increase price that there's a good perception of value," he said. 

They're not alone.

The PwC Pulse Survey of executive views found more than 60% of business leaders surveyed believed they'd likely have to increase the prices of goods and services this year, and more than two-thirds expected inflation to remain high this year. 

"If you think about the continued supply chain difficulties with imports still sitting in containers in major points in the country and the reality that we are living in one of the lowest inventory-to-sales ratios that we've seen probably since World War II, you realize that this inflation, while we had hoped it would be fleeting, is probably here for at least 18-24 months," said Byron Carlock, Jr., the national leader of PwC's U.S. real estate practice. 

Carlock said the adjustments upwards appear prevalent in most industries. 

"I think the fed is going to continue to show us their strength in moderating inflation," he said.

"I think all efforts will be to contain the inflation and hope that once the supply chain levels out again we will see prices begin to stabilize."

Experts say for many managers, it's the first time they've experienced inflation like this. 

"This is the first rodeo of severe price inflation for many businesses and for many managers," said John Quelch, dean of the Miami Herbert Business School.

"It's important they adjust their prices in sync with the cost input adjustments they're having to bear on raw materials, on wages, so forth."

Quelch's advice is to buy early and buy often.

"Even though the supply chain problems were and are still part of the inflation equation, they are not such a large part of it that once they're fixed inflation is going to go away," he said. 

At The Galley, Boland said the digital menu makes it easier for them to adjust their prices.

Right now, customers will find a $4 increase in the wings since September. But Boland explained they have a loyal following. 

"You know the economy's raging here so people are a lot less price-conscious than they used to be, and they are understanding that the world has changed," he said.

This story was first reported by Haley Bull and Lindsay Tuchman at Newsy.

Many weddings were canceled or postponed during the pandemic.

Now that more people are vaccinated, couples are back to planning their special day.

“Now that it’s a little more open and people are able to have their big weddings, we’re definitely seeing a surge of brides coming in,” said Allison Bailey, the operations manager at Winnie Couture in Atlanta.

But as brides rush in, it’s becoming harder for many to find a wedding dress.

Chloe Buckel who recently got married said, “I actually picked mine up two days before I had to fly out for my wedding.”

Michelle McFarland, President of the National Bridal Retailers Association said, “the manufacturers and the designers that are creating these beautiful wedding dresses all are experiencing supply chain issues.”

Some companies are changing their supply chain method just to keep up with demand.

The CEO of David’s Bridal, Jim Marcum told CNN the company is front-loading inventory production, so they can have them supply ready for customers in the U.S.

With shipping times slowing down by about 300% in 2022, couples are advised to start preparing everything for their wedding as soon as possible.

Manufacturers and retailers both pointing the finger at each other for the shortage. Joan Driggs the VP of content and thought leadership for IRI market research company, explains.

Alex Livingston: So, what are some of the contributing factors that are causing baby formula shortages at some retail locations?

Joan Driggs: I think it's a couple of things. First of all, it's a far different purchase than anything else that you buy in the store. There are shared supply chain challenges all across the board with Omicron trying to keep, or keeping truckers off the roads, keeping people out of stores able to stock the shelves, keeping people in manufacturing plants away from work. So that's shared across the entire supply chain. But what's unique to baby formula is that it's such an emotional purchase. You know, this is not buying breakfast cereal for the family where if your preferred brand or your preferred size isn't available, you can find other options that will tie you over. This is something that you really, these caregivers, these parents, and others really depend on for the baby's nourishment and it's not an inexpensive purchase. 

Alex Livingston:  You know, and that is so true. I didn't even think about that last part that you mentioned, but your data showed that Americans spent $4.3 billion in 2020, and 4.5% from that's up 4.5%. So how has the pandemic in particular played a role in the need for formula?

Joan Driggs: I think that it's not necessarily the pandemic, that's putting the need for formula, the need for formula is always going to be there, it makes me laugh like when we talked about the pandemic at the outside, people went off and bought bottled water and bottled water wasn't an issue, this is strictly just to keep people, you know, babies nourished and I think what happens and why there is maybe more purchase is because of the tighter supply.

If you're someone shopping for baby formula and you see that there are only a couple of cans of your 20 or 30-ounce baby formula that you really prefer, you're probably going to buy them if you can afford to because you're afraid that the next time you go to the store it won't be there and that's exacerbating the problem. 

Alex Livingston: Yeah. So, what do you think is the solution then to this issue I think a lot of it is it's out there like in some way shape, or form, it's probably out there? 

Joan Driggs: Every manufacturer wants to ensure that their customers are happy. Every retailer wants to ensure that their customers are happy. So, I think it really will be dependent on manufacturers making sure that they're getting their most preferred brands out there and then consumers understanding if the size that they prefer or the format that they prefer isn't available like one of the really growing categories, same formula but in ready to drink has been hit just as hard or even a little harder because it's so convenient. 

Alex Livingston:  So, if you have to mix your own, that's a solution, interesting. Okay, so we have about 30 seconds left so really quickly, what does your data predict about the demand for baby formula over the next year?

Joan Driggs: I think again across the board, things are going to level off as manufacturers get their full production up to speed as our supply chain keeps rolling and as retailers are able to stock those shelves, but for now people just have to be a little bit more patient shop around as best they can, and of course maybe try not to stockpile, which would help the whole thing level off.

Alex Livingston at Newsy first reported this story.

We're entering year three of a scorching hot housing market, but even if the economy recovers as expected, that won't immediately solve the housing supply shortage across the U.S. The shortage existed before 2020, but the pandemic made things even worse.

There's a lack of materials due to supply chain bottlenecks, and building companies have struggled to fill jobs amid the great resignation. Low supply matched with high demand has sent prices soaring.

"Homes that were $380,000 are now $520,000," developer Ed Pavicic said.

The average household income in United States is just over $67,000, and if you follow the advice of conventional financial planners, you shouldn't buy a home worth more than three times your salary.

That means the average household should shoot for a home around $200,000. However, that's half of what they're going for these days, on average.

The good news is some experts say a turnaround is coming as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates.

Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that interest rates could rise at least three times or more this year if inflation doesn't fall. But it's still unclear how quickly that will happen, or just how much it might bring prices down.

This story was originally reported by Bianca Facchinei on Newsy.com

Retailers can breathe a sigh of relief now that the Christmas holiday is over, capping months of laborious planning to keep shelves stocked over the busy shopping period. But it may not be much of a respite.

What's happening: A new index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that tracks pressure on global supply chains indicated a slight drop between October and November.

"The [index] seems to suggest that global supply chain pressures, while still historically high, have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward," the New York Fed's researchers said this week.

But analysts looking ahead to 2022 aren't convinced conditions will meaningfully improve. They say the impact of the highly contagious omicron variant hasn't been fully realized, especially as some countries in Asia try to suppress all coronavirus outbreaks.

Record infections are triggering shortfalls of workers at ports and other transit hubs, while "zero COVID" policies are affecting manufacturers that have been desperate to keep production on track following a surge in demand for goods.

"Already we're seeing labor shortages right across the supply chain," Martin Dixon, director of research products at the consultancy Drewry, told me.

Chipmakers Samsung and Micron have had to adjust operations in the Chinese city of Xi'an, an industrial center that has been under strict lockdown since Dec. 23.

Judah Levine, head researcher at Freightos Group, told me that shipping rates for 40-foot containers from Asia to North America's West Coast fell by about 25% in November as "peak season" ended and "have stayed about level since then."

They're starting to rise again in advance of the Lunar New Year holiday in February, as consuming countries like the United States stock up on items before factories close in China.

Levine doesn't think rates will return to peak season levels. However, he does think they'll stay high "as long as demand stays strong and ports continue to struggle with congestion."

"Those [factors] will only subside once there is a decrease in consumer spending on goods, which, especially with the current omicron surge, does not look imminent," he said. Retailers are also working hard to rebuild depleted inventories, leading to an increase in orders.

A true "back to normal" will happen slowly, likely over the course of 2023, Levine said.

Bottom line: A slight moderation in costs from last fall won't make life much easier for companies across the supply chain. Furniture giant Ikea said last week that it would raise prices at its stores by an average of 9% in 2022 to help offset higher costs, including for transportation.

Some carmakers have also indicated that they do not expect to be able to ramp up production in the first half of this year due to ongoing shortages of computer chips.

"Chip scarcity will also accompany us in 2022, particularly in the first half," Markus Schaefer, the chief technology officer of Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler, recently told journalists. "We do not expect significant production capacity increases in the first half of the year."

DETROIT —

While restaurants in the U.S. and United Kingdom are open without restrictions and often bustling, they are entering their second winter of the coronavirus pandemic anxious about what's ahead: They're squeezed by labor shortages and skyrocketing food costs and the omicron variant is looming.

"I'm extremely worried. I've never felt like we were out of the woods," said Caroline Glover, chef and owner of the restaurant Annette in the Denver suburb of Aurora.

Related video above: Surging inflation forces businesses to adapt

The rapid spread of omicron already is pummeling the industry in Britain and elsewhere, with restaurants, hotels and pubs reporting cancellations at the busiest and most lucrative time of year. Businesses urged the U.K. government to offer relief after officials warned people to think carefully about socializing. Scotland and Wales have pledged millions of pounds for businesses, adding pressure for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government to do the same in England.

"It's pretty devastating. For private hires, bigger tables of say eight to 16 people, those have pretty much disappeared. These are the bread and butter for restaurants at Christmastime," said Jeff Galvin, co-owner of Galvin Restaurants, a group of five upmarket venues in London.

Many businesses said hundreds of festive corporate lunch bookings vanished almost overnight as infections began to soar and Johnson announced tighter restrictions, including mandatory mask-wearing in most indoor spaces, though restaurants are open as usual.

Glover in Colorado worries about renewed restrictions if infections climb. For now, business has returned, with her dining room back to full capacity — up from a cap of 50% last year — and four greenhouses outside booked far in advance.

Similarly, diners have returned and business is strong for Amy Brandwein, who owns the Italian restaurant Centrolina and a small cafe, Piccolina, in Washington. After her restaurants survived lockdowns with takeout and grocery offerings, "I could safely say we're back to 2019 levels," she said.

But staffing remains a challenge. In a recent survey of 3,000 U.S. restaurant operators, 77% said they didn't have enough workers to meet demand, according to the National Restaurant Association, an industry trade group.

Many restaurant workers started new careers or went back to school. Jada Sartor of Grand Rapids, Michigan, saw her wages rise from $10 per hour to $16 per hour this year as restaurants grew more desperate for workers, but she recently quit her serving job because she couldn't find affordable child care.

"The cost of living is just so high you can't afford to really live," she said.

Kristin Jonna, owner of restaurant and wine bar Vinology in Ann Arbor, Michigan, said she raised wages nearly 40% to attract and retain her staff of 35. It was a change that needed to happen in the service industry, she said. But she can't hike menu prices enough to compensate.

"Everyone knows that beef is more expensive, but high-end, highly skilled labor is expensive, too," Jonna said. "That is the very tricky part of our business right now."

Jonna said the restaurant is humming despite high COVID-19 caseloads in Michigan. She has fewer large events scheduled, but the customers who are coming in are spending more.

U.S. sales at restaurants and bars hit an estimated $73.7 billion in November, up 37% from the same month last year, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau. But that was partly due to higher menu prices as restaurants try to account for inflation.

Sara Lund, owner of Bodega and The Rest, a bar and restaurant in Salt Lake City, Utah, said her ingredient costs rose between 15% and 40% this year.

"The margins on food are never going to be astronomical, even in good times," she said. "But paying 40% more for protein? I can't pass that along to the customer."

Diners know restaurants are struggling, and many say they have resumed eating out to help their favorite local spots. Liz Cooper of Needham, Massachusetts, said she's comfortable dining indoors with her family of five, all of whom are vaccinated except for her 4-year-old daughter.

"If you like a restaurant and a small business you should get out there and support them," Cooper said. "They might have to close, and then you'll be heartbroken that you can't get your favorite chicken parm or cannoli."

Steve Geffen, who owns four Chicago-area restaurants, including Once Upon a Grill, said he removed 30% of the tables from his restaurants to ensure customers felt comfortable dining inside. So far, it's working.

"They don't mind waiting longer, knowing they're not sitting on top of everybody else," he said.

But Jeanne Busch in Forest Park, Illinois, is sticking with occasional takeout.

"I am definitely not comfortable maskless indoors in a crowd," Busch said. "As we head into winter and omicron continues its rampage, we expect mostly to be eating at home."

In Britain, omicron has already devastated restaurants and pubs. Patrick Dardis, who heads the Young's chain of some 220 pubs, said he hoped officials would come up with a financial relief plan soon. About 30% of the chain's bookings canceled last week.

"There are thousands of businesses — not just pubs — that could collapse in January if the current situation isn't partnered with proper financial support," he said.

UKHospitality, an industry trade group, urged tax relief, saying concerns about omicron have wiped out 2 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) in sales this month.

Restaurants also are clamoring for government support in the U.S., where the Restaurant Revitalization Fund ran dry earlier this year after dispersing $28.6 billion to 100,000 applicants.

Sean Kennedy, executive vice president for public policy at the National Restaurant Association, said the industry needs at least $40 billion to fund the 200,000 applicants who didn't receive grants. So far, Congress hasn't taken action.

It's harder for restaurants to explain what's happening now that their dining rooms are full and they're not on lockdown, Kennedy said.

"They think that we're fully packed and crushing it, but the answer is, we are barely getting by," he said.

Lindsay Mescher, who opened the Greenhouse Cafe in Lebanon, Ohio, in 2019, is frustrated that she never received a promised government grant. She was approved in May, but demand was so high the fund was exhausted before she received any money.

She took out loans to keep her staff of eight employed while offering only carryout for the first 16 months of the pandemic. The cafe reopened to diners this year and had a busy summer and fall, but Mescher is still struggling. She used to pay $165.77 for a case of 400 takeout salad bowls, for example; now they cost $246.75.

"The funds would have guaranteed survival for us," Mescher said. "It's extremely unfair that some restaurants got relief and some didn't."

___

Anderson reported from New York and Hui from London.

The shortage of semiconductor microchips is expected to last well into next year. It's an issue that is having an effect on the delivery of electronics like smartphones and laptops.

The supply chain problems mean items coming from overseas are severely delayed, but some companies are deciding to change that path and build their products in America.

“We’re that quintessential downtown USA; that's what it looks like here,” said Cort Geis of his town of Taylor, Texas.

In every town’s story, there’s a moment that shapes what it becomes. Generations from now, people may look at what happens on land just outside of Taylor as that moment.

“This will be the single most consequential development for our local economy since the railroad was laid through here in the 1870s," said Taylor Mayor Brandt Rydell.

Next year, Samsung will break ground on a facility that will make semiconductor microchips.

Samsung says it will create 2,000 jobs and be its largest-ever U.S. investment at $17 billion.

“At the time I got the call, I surely thought they meant 200 jobs and $17 million. That’d be more of what I’m accustomed to seeing as the mayor of the city of Taylor," Mayor Rydell said.

The facility is expected to change the direction of Taylor, but also this country— away from relying on those overseas to produce nearly all the microchips that have been in such short supply.

“With greater manufacturing capacity, we will be able to better serve the needs of our customers and contribute to the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain," Samsung Electronics Device Solutions Division Vice Chairman and CEO Kinam Kim said in a press release about the project.

“It’s pretty exciting. Taylor’s not really a place that’s on the map as far as most people are concerned," said Liz Avants, whose husband owns Waxplant, a record store and skate shop in Taylor.

Taylor isn’t a stranger to attention; it's been used in movies like Transformers and Texas Chainsaw Massacre.

But people know what’s to come is different, for better or for worse.

"This is, yeah, beyond what we’ve seen before for sure as far as change," said Gayle Kahler, whose lived in Taylor since the 1980s. “I think the businesses are really excited about it. A lot of people who interact a little bit more with what’s going on in Taylor and other people are concerned it’s going to make more traffic. More difficult to do things and get around so we’ll see.”

For businesses like Geis’ music venue and bar, Black Sparrow Music Parlor, Samsung is a sign of hope.

“Smart growth, not a lot of you know commercialized, I don't want to say names, but we want the mom-and-pop aspect to be a big part of what Taylor is, and I think we can achieve that," Geis said.

It’s hard to sum up what Samsung's move could mean for this town, but at Texas Beer Company, the new brew on tap sends a pretty strong message.

“The idea of a Samsung beer, that we now lovingly call the Sammie," said Texas Beer Company CO-Founder JD Gins.

Many say the move of a Korean tech giant into a small Texas town shows just how much the world has changed, and how important it is the supply chains we all rely on change with it.

“As everybody in this country kind of got accustomed to supply chain always benefiting America, and if we want, if we see the challenges unfolding right now, if we want to manufacture, we want good jobs then we need them to be in this country," Gins said.

Samsung isn't the only major company shifting operations to the United States. In December, Toyota announced it is building a $1.3 billion plant to build lithium batteries near Greensboro, N.C. and will employ 1,750 people.

It’s not just people, freight is also a burden for the airline industry this season.

“We are a passenger airline, but not many people realize that almost every flight you go on, there’s actually cargo below as well,” Chris Busch, the managing director of the Americas region for United Airlines Cargo, said. “This is a normal peak season for air, but it’s definitely, I think, the largest one any of us have seen in a very long time.”

Ships are backed up at seaports across the U.S., waiting to unload cargo from overseas.

“The demand is strong from all places into the U.S.,” Busch said.

As a result, air cargo is seeing more demand, especially from overseas markets. But the number of international flights isn’t back to pre-pandemic levels.

“Our transatlantic network, I think, right now, is roughly 75 percent of what it was pre-pandemic, but our transpacific network is only around 25 to 30 percent of what we were pre-pandemic,” Busch said.

And planes can only carry so much.

“The amount of freight you can carry on an airplane is a lot less than what you can carry on an ocean vessel,” he said.

“Typically we would use air cargo for very expensive, very time-sensitive products,” Donald Maier, the Dean of Maritime Transportation, Logistics, and Management at the California State University Maritime Academy, said. “There are so many different factors right now that have impacted our supply chains from inventory levels to significant consumer demand, COVID closures of the ports, our ports trying to catch up with it.”

The bottlenecks go from one area to the next. It’s something Maier said consumers should be wary of.

“As a consumer, plan on having higher prices. Unfortunately, and I can’t say that’s all because of the delays in the supply chain, there’s just a significant amount of demand. And we still have a pandemic we’re all living through so because of the uncertainty there is that challenge we still have to manage,” he said.

“Definitely a rise in prices, there's no question about it,” Joel Sutherland, a professor of practice in supply chain management at the University of San Diego, said.

He has more than 30 years of experience in logistics.

“If we’re going to meet the demand of consumers, then we have to use air freight. More importantly, if they don't use air freight and pay the premium then they risk losing business to their competitors that are doing this,” he explained.

Many airlines, like United Airlines, are trying to meet this demand by offering cargo-only flights. While it’s more expensive, Busch said it helps support the supply chain.

“They are still passenger aircraft, but we call them our freight-only flights,” he said.

United has moved more than 1.6 billion pounds of cargo since the beginning of the pandemic. The airline says 730 million pounds were moved on cargo-only flights. About 14,000 cargo-only flights have been flown by the company since the pandemic began.

“We’re doing all we can to support, but I don't know if it's going to be the solution for everyone," Busch said.

For now, consumers can still expect longer shipping times, higher prices, and possible delays.

“Be prepared for this to continue for at least another year, rough guess estimate,” Maier said.

Before you head to a holiday gathering, it might be a good idea to take a COVID test.

But tests are getting harder to find.

“Right now in Michigan, we are having a large shortage, as they are across the entire nation, for the rapid test,” said Kris Tuchek.

She and Amber Sprague-Rice run Ouch Urgent Care in St. Johns, Michigan. Over the last year, they say they’ve completed over one million covid-19 tests for their community, but now demand is rising even higher.

“A lot of the government agencies, school agencies, large corporations started stockpiling a lot of the rapid tests faster than consumers, everyday users could get their hands on those tests,” said Tuchek.

“So our schools are starting to run out, to be able to do the testing that they were requiring and so then, of course, it’s going to fall back on the private sector,” said Sprague-Rice.

Sprague-Rice and Tuchek say they’re well-stocked, at least for now. Their clinic has a deal with a test supplier.

“They do tell us that stock is running low. But we don’t know, we don’t know when we will totally run out of tests as well,” said Tuchek.

So we checked for ourselves.

According to CVS.com, there are COVID tests available at some stores in most major U.S. cities, just maybe not the one down the street.

The challenge is in rural areas, where you may have to drive an hour or more to find a store with tests in stock.

“You’re going to see this happen for the next month, where everybody wants all these test kits because of the holiday season,” said Jack Buffington.

Buffington runs the supply chain program at the University of Denver. He says there are many aspects to this shortage, but one factor is key.

“Pretty much anything that’s related to medical supplies has had some, encountered some issue because these aren’t normal commodities. These have to be done in. You know this isn’t a plastic toy. This has to have certain levels of sanitation and safety unlike anything else,” he said.

Those factors, combined with labor shortages and delays in overseas shipping, could make this holiday season more difficult for families who want to celebrate together.

It will also be difficult for the doctors and nurses battling a surge in coronavirus cases.

“Our rates are very high, and so it’s looking a lot like last fall to us here in Michigan. Our rates are high, and in the rural areas, our vaccination rates are low, and so we are seeing people getting pretty sick,” said Sprague-Rice

The supply chain crisis means last-minute gift buyers may have little choice but to go shopping the old-fashioned way this holiday season.

High demand, combined with supply chain delays, materials' shortages and troubles hiring workers, are shrinking the availability of items both online and at stores. As customers get closer to the last minute, physical stores will become a more appealing option for shoppers than waiting around for delivery, analysts expect.

Even if customers can't find exactly what they're looking for at a store, it's usually easier to browse around for an alternative in person — and they can try it on.

"Brick and mortar may be more attractive for consumers later in the season," Rod Sides, a vice chairman at Deloitte and leader of its U.S. retail and distribution practice, said in an email. "Shoppers can leave with goods in hand, versus waiting on promised dates from shippers."

Consumers saw more than 2 billion out-of-stock messages while browsing online in October, according to Adobe Analytics. That's a big reason why, in physical stores, sales will rise by 8% this year — a 10-year high — as shoppers return to in-person shopping and try to avoid shipping delays, according to real estate research firm CBRE.

Analysts also believe buy online, pickup in store orders will boom this holiday because of shipping concerns.

Shoppers will lean on curbside pickup "more than ever to give them peace of mind about their holiday purchases" with wait times and items out of stock high on consumers' minds, said Andrew Lipsman, a retail analyst at market research firm Insider Intelligence.

Retailers will heavily promote pickup as an option for customers on their websites and mobile apps, in marketing emails, and on television to appeal to customers anxious about buying online late in the season, Lipsman expects.

Stores say they have greater control over inventory in stores and through curbside pickup than they do on home delivery orders — meaning it's less likely there will be a mistake or delay on an order.

"The closer I got [to the holiday], I would absolutely be using the ship to store because that's going to give more confidence in being able to actually get the thing in time," Ben Johns, the general merchandising manager for action sports at outdoor equipment retailer REI, said in a recent interview.

When customers order online and pick up their items in stores, products are either in the store already or REI sends them from one of its warehouses using its own trucks. That means REI doesn't need to rely on third-party delivery carriers it has less control over to deliver to customers' homes, he said.

$5 off orders and free blankets

Retailers have an incentive to draw shoppers into their stores.

It's typically more profitable for retailers to have you shop in person than order to your home because they have to pay expensive last-mile delivery costs. Return rates are also higher for items purchased online, and retailers have to eat the costs for customers' returns.

Top retailers are pushing customers this year to visit their physical stores to shop or order online and scoop up their items in person.

Kohl' is offering customers $5 off orders when they pick them up in stores. It's also trying to make the pickup process smoother for customers by adding temporary new pickup locations and more designating parking spots for pickups, as well as a self-pickup test where customers can access their orders using a link and code.

Kohl's expects increased demand for pickup orders this year in part because it "eliminates the added stress of waiting for packages to arrive on your doorstep," Paul Gaffney, Kohl's chief technology and supply chain officer, said in an email.

Carter', the children's clothing chain, is offering customers gifts as an extra perk if they purchase items on certain days in stores — but not online — such as blankets from Nov. 19 to Nov. 21 and a Skip Hop toy from Dec. 10 to Dec. 12.

Randa Apparel & Accessories, which sells brands such as Levi's, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein and others, has shifted a large portion of its advertising spending to push customers to stores, instead of buying online. It's also directing more of its inventory to stores than e-commerce.

"When inventory is limited, we prefer to drive consumers to in-store purchases over online purchases," said David Katz, Randa's chief marketing officer.

Customers purchasing products in stores is more profitable for Randa than online sales, which often come with "very large reverse logistics costs" on return orders. "We've paid the tuition for this education, and it was an expensive lesson to learn," he said.

When shoppers come into stores, they also tend to make impulse purchases or buy related items nearby — belts, for example, near the pants they're buying. This happens less frequently when buying online.

Overall, Katz said, "the frustration level is lower when you go to mortar and brick, particularly when inventory is limited."

It takes a lot of work to grow a Christmas tree.

“We are growing a crop that takes seven to 10 years until you can harvest it,” said Beth Bossio at Quarter Pine Tree Farm in Pennsylvania. “Every year, it grows about a foot, so that’s why it does take a long time.”

Quarter Pine Tree Farm is preparing for the busiest part of the year.

“We are a choose and cut tree farm,” Bossio said.

This time of year is spent tagging, cutting and hanging trees. It's not an inexpensive process.

“Prices are going up across the board with everything. We sold our trees two years ago for $60 and we raised them $5 last year, $5 this year so we’re selling our trees for $70 and I think that is comparable to what we’re seeing across the nation,” Bossio said.

“It creates a lot of difficulty in terms of managing the supply chain just because the lead times are long, lots of things can go wrong,” said Prakash Mirchandani, director of the Center for Supply Chain Management at the University of Pittsburgh.

Mirchandani said Christmas trees are a unique product with a short life cycle and a short period of demand. However, they also take a long time to grow, or for artificial trees, to create.

“The supply chains for both of these types of trees has gotten affected,” he said.

The main problem has to do with transportation, Mirchandani added.

“As far as artificial trees are concerned, almost all are imported," Mirchandani said. "Eighty percent come from China.”

“Big retailers haven't been able to bring all their trees in and get them through the ports,” said Mac Harman, CEO of Balsam Hill.

Balsam Hill is an artificial Christmas tree and decoration retailer. Harman is also one of the founders of the American Christmas Tree Association, a nonprofit organization.

He said they’ve had to raise their prices at Balsam Hill around 22 percent on average to help offset transportation costs.

“If you're buying a tree that's been trucked to you or if you're buying an artificial tree there's no question that the prices are going to go up,” he said.

And for states that grow a lot of real trees, getting them to other parts of the U.S. could also be impacted.

“The availability of transportation is certainly going to affect sending the trees from Pennsylvania to other locations,” Mirchandani said.

But farmers across the country are adding to their supply for future years. It’s something Quarter Pine Tree Farm sees firsthand.

Beth Bossio’s stepfather Jim Rockis opened Quarter Pine Tree Farm in the 1990s, but it’s more than just a tree farm. They operate a Christmas tree seed orchard too -- and they are one of a few to do it.

“There’s probably five of us in the country that do it in an industrial way -- that do Christmas trees,” Rockis said. The seedlings that grow from these seeds are distributed to over 300 farms in the Northeast -- and Bossio sees them ramping up their supply.

“In the last four years farmers are planting more and more trees,” she said. “It used to be that we would start taking orders and I’d still be taking orders in February of the following year. We’re already sold out and that's because farmers are ramping up their numbers.”

While Christmas trees may have a higher price tag this season, industry experts say there will be a tree available for people to put gifts under.

“You just need to shop early,” Bossio said. “Yes supply chain issues across the board with a lot of things, but we’re never going to run out of trees. It’s just you might not find the size tree you're looking for. It may be a 7 foot instead of an 8 foot, and that tree is still going to provide the scent and the experience you want no matter what.”

MAINE, Maine —

The rising cost of goods and global supply chain issues are trickling down to community food pantries.

Surging food prices across the country have created a growing need for assistance at neighborhood food shelves, but have also stretched available supplies thin.

Jim Welch, operations manager at the South Portland Food Cupboard in Maine, said they have run into challenges finding some common items, crediting the program's network of volunteers for keeping their regular food pickup programs running smoothly.

"The people who give here and help us out make it a whole lot easier," Welch said.

Further up the food assistance supply chain, the Good Shepherd Food Bank is also navigating pandemic-related challenges.

Dawn DiFiore, the food bank's director of community partnerships, said supply chain issues have been a constant struggle since the start of the pandemic nearly two years ago.

Getting regular shipments of goods has been a constant adjustment, with the food bank often lining up multiple potential suppliers to ensure they can keep their warehouse stocked.

With the cost of things like gas and groceries getting more expensive and the holidays fast approaching, DiFiore said some the squeeze on struggling families is getting tighter.

"People start to make these trade-offs. Am I going to buy heating fuel or am I going to get this bag of groceries?" DiFiore said.

Thanks to their network of suppliers, Good Shepherd is able to stretch money father than the average consumer. According to DiFiore, a $1 donation translates to three full meals provided by the food bank.

Video above: Why some parents skipped The Elf on the Shelf tradition last year

The Elf on the Shelf — a popular elf doll that parents place around their home in the runup to Christmas to "monitor" if the kids are being naughty or nice — has been showing up in many American households in the days after Thanksgiving for more than 15 years now. But this year the elves' journeys to stores and homes have been more complicated.

All kinds of businesses across the globe have been scrambling to try to manage a stalled supply chain that's created a serious backlog of inventory at major ports and a shortage of workers to deliver it. But the problem feels particularly harrowing for companies that make a highly seasonal product with a tight sales window, like The Elf on the Shelf.

The Lumistella Company, the business behind The Elf on the Shelf storybook and doll brand, makes the elves in China, then — ideally, at least — gets them to the warehouses for retailers like Walmart, Target and Amazon weeks in advance of Thanksgiving. Since the product loses its relevancy after Christmas, there's always a ticking clock. Logistics like these are never easy, but this year has brought with it a number of new challenges for the company to work out.

Christa Pitts, co-CEO of The Lumistella Company, told CNN Business recently that she saw the writing on the wall as early as January and didn't want to risk waiting to see if the supply chain issues would ease up — or maybe become worse.

The company typically places production orders with its manufacturer in April. She decided to move orders up by two months into February. As she did that, she was confronted by a host of challenges -- not only were manufacturers in Asia facing labor and raw materials shortages that made production for many companies more difficult, but prices for shipping containers were rapidly climbing and fully-loaded ships were getting delayed.

And once products finally made it onto ships, she said, the typical time at sea had gone up.

Meanwhile, the domestic ground transportation that's vital to moving imported goods across the United States was struggling too, hit by problems including shortages of the trailers used to transport shipping containers and of truck drivers.

"All kinds of supply chain hurdles were coming together in a way that no one could have predicted," said Pitts.

Realizing that would create new problems once she actually got her products to the U.S., Pitt did something she'd never done before — transporting some of the elves and other holiday inventory from China by air.

For the first time, the company put some shipments on planes in June, using five cargo planes for about 100,000 units in total.

Overall, Pitts estimated, 10% to 15% of her company's holiday inventory this year will have arrived via plane and the remainder by ship.

"It was extraordinarily expensive," she said. "But backordering and missing Christmas were not options for us. The Lumistella Company is Christmas, so we had to deliver."

Struggling to make it into stores

Getting the elves that had arrived via ships onto land was another problem.

Pitts knew that West Coast ports in the United States were clogged with thousands of containers waiting to be unloaded. So the company decided to bypass those ports, which it was lucky enough to only use for some of its shipping in the first place, and have its products arrive at the less congested East Coast ports at Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Both of these ports were also closer to Lumistella's headquarters in Atlanta.

Luckily for Pitts, the early mitigation strategies enabled the company to get all of its holiday inventory into the U.S. by the end of September, with none of it still stuck on ships.

The elves have all made it to warehouses, where many are awaiting transport to distribution centers operated by retailers.

But the elves' complicated journey is still not over.

Now, Pitts has been faced with figuring out how to get the pallets of products out of the warehouses, on the road and to retailers. Those warehouses, which are run by third-party providers, are getting overloaded and there's been no way to quickly clear them because of the ongoing trucker shortage, she said.

"I had one partner who is 141% above capacity at one warehouse," said Pitts. Trucks are needed every step of the way on the land transportation of the products.

For instance, if the goods do make it out, they are first sent to retailers' large distribution centers on long-distance freight trucks. From there, products are typically earmarked for delivery to individual stores, again on trucks. "It's enormously frustrating," said Pitts.

She's thought about using planes again to transport products from the warehouses to retailers' distribution centers. But that won't work, she noted, because it's not as if the planes can be flown right up to a distribution center — a truck is still necessary at some point.

About 70% of the inventory has made it to retailers so far, said Pitts. That number is typically closer to 100% by now. She anticipates the remaining 30% will get to retailers in time for the holidays, although exactly when is unclear.

Could a glass shortage keep you from picking up your favorite adult beverage?

The Jasper Winery in Iowa said it has plenty of wine glasses.

But they’re having trouble finding wine bottles.

Owner Mason Groben said he thought shutting down during the pandemic would be his biggest challenge after two decades in the wine-making business. But, now, there's a new problem: Dealing with a glass shortage.

“There is going to be a glass shortage. And our glass supplier has told me about that, and the biggest thing is that for the first time in 20 years of making wine I've had to sign a contract for the entire next year to secure my glass,” Groben said.

Groben said he's happy to have his Jasper Winery open again.

And his wedding event center business is booming.

But the supply chain slowdown is cramping his wine bottling operation.

Eighty percent of his wine ends up in bottles.

Much of his glass bottle stock comes from China and Mexico. Now, he is innovating. He is offering more wine in cans, though aluminum prices are rising too.

He said he's also been forced to use different-sized glass bottles. He's had to order earlier and pay higher prices. He said his customers are adapting.

“It’s a whole new challenge. We just do our best to adapt and plan ahead,” Groben said.

Groben said he expects the glass shortage to last well into next year.

Watch the full story in the video above.

Several industries have been disrupted since the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S., including the food supply chain. From dumped milk to piles of uneaten onions and potatoes, this was just some of the food going to waste on farms across America due to COVID-19-related shutdowns.

“Really, its impact on the food supply chain started in March,” said Jack Buffington, a supply chain expert currently developing the supply chain program at the University of Denver. “Most of us who have been in the supply chain have never seen an event like this happen.”

While farmers were dumping or burying products, food banks were missing out on some much-needed supplies, and dealing with growing demand. So were grocery stores, as restaurants were closed and consumer buying habits changed.

“More of the retail food market went down and more of the consumer home food market went up,” Buffington explained. “This caused a major shock in the supply chain where you had this situation where some foods were going to waste and some foods were in high demand.”

First, the federal government stepped in to help. The USDA was given up to $3 billion through the Coronavirus Assistance Program to buy fresh produce, dairy, and meat from farmers and then distribute that to those in need.

And then there were nonprofit organizations like FarmLink.

“We matched a farm in Idaho, an onion farm, to our local food bank in Los Angeles,” Max Goldman with FarmLink explained. “We delivered 50,000 pounds of onions to them.”

He said that was their proof of concept.

Goldman is a student at Brown University. He and a group of students saw the disruption in the supply chain, and decided to do something about it.

“A lot of what we do is finding food that would’ve been sent to the dump,” he said.

So, FarmLink was born to help with food waste.

“We’ve done 2 million pounds in seven days,” Goldman said.

In just two months, they’ve reallocated 4 million pounds of food. They pay farmers their cost with donations and grants they receive, and help get the food to food banks. Goldman said the farmers are generally grateful

“One of the first farmers we worked with, he said the day he has to dump his food is the worst day of his life. He works all year to basically produce this food, and for him to have to dig a hole in his backyard and just take a dump truck and put all his potatoes and onions or whatever it is, he said it makes him cry, and it’s the worst day of his life,” Goldman said. “Even if he lost money on it, he was glad he could send this food to people in need during this time.”

So far, they’ve delivered food to approximately 30 states.

“This is not a new issue and it's been accelerated and made more public due to coronavirus, but every year there’s over 60 billion pounds of food waste,” Goldman said.

Buffington said the work of FarmLink and organizations doing similar work is just a drop in the bucket, but it’s promising.

“Small in scale of the overall supply chain, but it’s huge in this opportunistic saving of food,” he explained.

Buffington sees this type of work as a Band-Aid on the bigger issue, but it could open eyes to solutions down the road.

“Supply chains work really well on stability,” Buffington said. “It’s tough to think about innovation, which is disruption, when you're worried about a disruption to your current model.”

“I think when we pull out of this you’re going to see remarkable opportunities for innovation,” he said.

For now, FarmLink and other organizations are working to make sure food doesn’t go to waste. Goldman’s goal is to move over a million pounds of food a day.

“We’ve had tens of thousands of people reaching out wanting to help, and that’s just so uplifting and really gives you hope,” Goldman said.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg predicted on Sunday that supply chain issues facing the U.S. will continue into 2022, but stressed that Congress potentially passing President Joe Biden's infrastructure proposal is the best way to help alleviate those problems.

"Certainly a lot of the challenges that we've been experiencing this year will continue into next year. But there are both short-term and long-term steps that we can take to do something about it," Buttigieg told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

"Look, part of what's happening isn't just the supply side, it's the demand side. Demand is off the charts," he added. "This is one more example of why we need to pass the infrastructure bill. There are $17 billion in the President's infrastructure plan for ports alone and we need to deal with these long-term issues that have made us vulnerable to these kinds of bottlenecks when there are demand fluctuations, shocks and disruptions like the ones that have been caused by the pandemic."

The comments from the secretary come as Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill makes its way through Congress, where it has already passed the Senate but is now stalled in the House. The legislation includes money for roads, bridges and public transportation, and would also provide funds to reduce congestion and emissions near ports and airports.

Asked by Tapper if he was frustrated that House progressives' demands to not vote on the physical infrastructure bill until the social infrastructure bill was also ready for a vote, Buttigieg said both pieces of legislation are needed to address the current issues stemming from the pandemic, including inflation.

"One thing that has not been talked about enough is (Moody's) finding about how the overall "Build Back Better" vision is designed to reduce inflationary pressures. So if you care about inflation, you ought to care about not just the supply chain issues, not just the infrastructure things I work on, but also the provisions in "Build Back Better" like paid family leave, like making it easier to afford childcare, like community college, that are going to give us a stronger labor force and help us deal with that major constraint on economic growth," he said.

When asked about the possibility of Biden lifting tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump against China -- something that could relieve some of the stress pandemic-related supply chain issues are putting on U.S. companies -- Buttigieg said that "every idea is being taken seriously," but would not elaborate further.

Buttigieg also stressed that the administration has to act to address the climate crisis after reports that the cornerstone climate policy in Democrats' massive social infrastructure package will likely be dropped from the final deal after Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia pushed back on it.

"The administration and the President are committed to bold climate action. Exactly what legislative form that takes is what's being negotiated right now. But the bottom line is we have to act on climate for the good of our children and, by way, for the good of our economy," he said.

SAN DIEGO, Calif. — While they won't play Christmas music until after Thanksgiving, the Southern California business City Lights celebrates all year round.

"They have everything you think you want: cars, foods, snowman, and toilet paper!" said longtime customer Maureen Downey, pointing to an ornament.

Located in San Diego, City Lights Year Round Collectibles Emporium has built a cult following over three decades.

"Its toys for adults," said owner Brian Young. "It started off in a very small space, but it hit a niche and has been growing ever since."

A destination for customers like Downey, who come for collectibles and nostalgia.

"This type of place is getting harder to find, which means the item itself harder to find," said Young.

But nearly two years into the pandemic, Young isn't expecting a Christmas miracle this season.

"The cost of shipping and the cost of labor is making business very, very difficult."

He's among retailers nationwide gripped by a broken supply chain. Goods we rely on are stuck at sea as container ships wait in record numbers to deliver products to U.S. ports.

"There were 72 ships offshore waiting to be offloaded. Some of those have merchandise we're waiting for, unfortunately," said Young.

The Southern California ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are together the nation's busiest container port complex. The primary gateway for waterborne trade between the U.S. and Asia, they handle more than one-third of U.S. goods.

The backlog has grown at a record pace in recent weeks.

"Going into the holiday season, this thing is going to get worse. We haven't fixed our supply chain problems yet," said Hitendra Chaturvedi, an expert in supply chain management and professor of practice at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Teaching the next generation of supply chain leaders, Chaturvedi says the once-obscure profession is now under a global microscope.

"One of the feedback I got was, now, I don't have to tell my grandma what supply chain management is. When I tell her that I'm going to be getting a degree in supply chain, she knows what I'm talking about," said Chaturvedi.

With the delta variant spreading, toilet paper, cleaning supplies, and paper towels are once again in high demand. So much so that Costco is reinstating limits on how much you can buy. And with shipping delays, experts urge consumers to get their holiday shopping done now.

"I talk to a lot of CEOs of large transportation and logistics companies. They don't see this thing improving till the end of 2022," said Chaturvedi.

The system has been crippled by high demand and wide-scale labor shortages.

"And then the third, I call it the dark unbalance of supply chain. When there is an imbalance of supply and demand, you have hoarders, who've got nothing to do with this business; they would start to buy out capacity," said Chaturvedi. "There were people who started buying out shipping capacity, sit on it, jack up the prices and then sell."

To curb demand, Chaturvedi says interest rates could go up. He says some of the standards used to teach supply chain are being thrown out the window.

"An example, this whole idea of extremely lean operation, where there's no inventory storage, is something that is being questioned. The whole idea of risk management across supply chain has taken a new meaning altogether."

More vulnerable to volatility, Chaturvedi encourages consumers to support small businesses.

"We're a long way from out of the woods," said Young.

But with loyal customers in-store and online, the supply chain isn't stealing their holiday cheer.

"There's an old saying if you can't change it do the best you can and live with it," said Young. "We'll muddle through."

Weary retailers continue to battle pandemic uncertainty as the delta variant causes new spikes in coronavirus infections. But for now, at least, expectations for a merry holiday season remain intact.

What's happening: Data published Thursday is expected to confirm that U.S. retail sales declined for the second straight month in August.

But new forecasts from Deloitte, Bain & Company and Mastercard predict a huge sales boom in the coming months, the most important time of the year for retailers.

Deloitte estimates that holiday sales will increase between 7% and 9% in 2021 as vaccinations help shoppers feel more comfortable venturing out to spend some of the cash they've been hoarding.

"A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

The consulting firm expects online sales to jump between 11% and 15% year-over-year, reaching up to $218 billion.

Mastercard, for its part, sees U.S. retail sales rising 7.4%. While online shopping could rally 7.6%, in-store shopping is expected to increase by 6.6% compared to 2020. Bain & Company is also calling for a 7% sales growth rate in November and December.

"The pandemic has impacted nearly every inch of the retail industry," said Aaron Cheris, the head of Bain & Company's Americas Retail practice. "However, heading into this holiday season, we also see important tailwinds for nominal retail growth, including boosts from inflation, rebounding employment, healthy savings rates and wage growth."

But wait: Supply chains remain badly tangled, causing shipping costs to soar. Some companies worry that empty shelves and shortages of in-demand products could dampen the mood.

"The demand is going to be there," MGA Entertainment CEO Isaac Larian told CNN Business late last month. "What is not going to be there is the product to fill the demand."

Mastercard thinks retailers will try to get around supply chain concerns, as well as persistent difficulties in hiring workers, by offering earlier holiday promotions in stores and online — particularly for electronics and clothing items.

"This holiday season will be defined by early shopping," Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard, said in a statement.

Investor insight: A spending surge would be good news for retail stocks, which shot up earlier this year but have been caught in a holding pattern in recent months. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF is up 45% year-to-date, but has shed 4.4% in the third quarter.

U.S. retail sales for August will provide a crucial look at how spending amidst the delta variant is holding up in advance of the holiday season. A consensus estimate from Briefing.com predicts retail sales dropped 0.7% after declining 1.1% in July.

Data released earlier this week from China showed that retail sales struggled in August, increasing just 2.5% compared to a year earlier. That was much weaker than expected and a dramatic slowdown from the 8.5% uptick recorded in July.

From lettuce to basil, where some of your food comes from could be changing. Indoor vertical farming is gaining traction in the food industry.

“Today we’re at our research and development facility,” Henry Sztul, the chief science officer at Bowery Farming, said.

From seed… "we’re constantly experimenting with different types of seeds,” he said. To germination flats put in a chamber for a few days, to their final home for growing. “What we look for are the leaves starting to be more fully developed.”

The process takes about a month.

“It’s a 25, 30-day grow cycle for the plant, from seed to shelf,” Katie Seawell, the chief commercial officer at Bowery Farming, said.

It’s an efficient process and this facility only shows a small portion of what they are growing

“We are building local indoor smart farms close to the cities that we operate,” Seawell said. She said they are re-imagining agriculture, and controlling every aspect of the growing process.

“We are not susceptible to some of the external variables or factors that can disrupt the supply chain or the growing process for crops,” she explained. “The ability for the current food system to pivot with agility to meet market demand based on market disruption is very, very limited.”

It’s a problem we saw during the pandemic. Disruptions in the food supply chain and transportation, leasing to rotting piles of unsold produce in some states and food shortages in others.

“What kind of opportunities did the pandemic present, I think one of those is food security,” Joshua Craver, an assistant professor of controlled environment horticulture at Colorado State University, said.

However, Craver said this indoor vertical farming isn’t an ideal solution for every crop.

“There are some crops that just don't make a lot of sense in a controlled environment setting...those range from grain crops or orchard crops,” he said.

Another downfall is the lighting needed. “We typically use a lot more energy to grow our crops in vertical farms that we do compared to fields, or even greenhouse production,” AJ Both, a professor at Rutgers University School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, said. Both does research in plant lighting.

“I think that's an area where we still need to do a lot of work, to try to help the vertical farming industry become even more efficient,” he said.

However, control of lighting does have benefits as well, as it gives growers more control over crop growth, all while taking up less space.

“The benefits of that, of course, are that you can grow a lot more plants on the same footprint,” Both said.

“We are taking non-arable land and transforming it into highly productive farms,” Seawell said.

While it may not be the ideal solution for every crop right now, Craver said it’s a valuable addition to the food industry.

“A lot of the ways I like to describe controlled environments and vertical farming is being another tool in our toolbox,” he said.

Back at Bowery, they are continuing to experiment with new crops and provide fresh food for those at a cost comparable to organic foods.

“As we scale…we will want to compete not only at a premium price point but against traditional agriculture prices as well,” Seawell said.

They currently have 13 products in the marketplace, and the capability to grow 365 days a year.

“It’s an incredibly exciting time to be in this space and I think there's real recognition that we have to think differently about how we build resilience and strengthen our local and regional food supply systems. We don't believe we’re the only answer to that, but we believe we are a part, a critical part of that answer.”

You may not pay attention to where your burgers come from, but forthre meat processing industry, COVID-19 has shed light on some of the issues the supply chain faces for both big and small companies.

“I founded the company in 1990,” Geoff Latham, president and CEO of Nicky USA, said.

Nicky USA is a small meat processor and distributor in Oregon. When we visited, the building was busy cutting, packing, and sending off meats. The demand for processing hasn’t gone away since the start of the pandemic; it’s actually increased.

“Our processing plant has been the heart and soul of me and my company and really excelled at that time. Our distribution was suffering but our processing plant, the demand skyrocketed for the plant,” Latham said.

Last year, the pandemic shook America’s food supply chain as restaurants closed and groceries saw a spike in demand. Meat processors were included.

“We had to turn away a lot of business in the processing side just because we only had so many hours per day we could get done,” Latham said.

Where those meats ended up changed.

“When COVID-19 hit, we were 85 percent restaurants, zero direct to consumer, and about 15 percent was...butcher shops and retailers,” he explained.

Now, Latham said restaurants are only 45 percent of his businesses, and 10 percent comes from a new direct-to-consumer model.

“It doesn’t seem like much, but it’s a very important 10 percent of what we do,” he explained. ”A really big part of our survival has been the support of direct to consumer.”

COVID-19 shook up a lot of industries, and small processing facilities happened to benefit in some ways.

“Over the last year, there’s really been a surge of demand for those,” David Anderson, livestock economist and professor at Texas A&M University, said.

Anderson is referring to these smaller plants.

“They may not have an open date until next year, 2022, so there has been a surge in demand for those services and those are very small plants,” he said.

Meanwhile, large plants were dealing with their own problems, including COVID-19 outbreaks that received attention from the federal government and national news.

“When COVID hit and the big packing plants were getting written up in the paper, hundreds and hundreds of people getting sick. It really temporarily stopped the supply chain, which most people don't realize is just so massive,” Latham said.

The CDC reported almost 5,000 people tested positive for COVID-19 in 225 facilities across the U.S. Outbreaks at larger plants caused a ripple effect.

“Just as an example, we saw prices skyrocket when we had a COVID outbreak in the Midwest, and all of a sudden, beef is $3 to $4 more expensive here in Oregon,” Latham said. “It really emphasized how important it is to maybe decentralize some of our production in this country.”

Latham said more local production is the solution.

“The more you can buy regionally, the better it mitigates prices going up and down that dramatically,” he said.

However, Anderson said, while he’s seeing more of these small facilities doing well, the larger plants still have a purpose.

“The reason food is so cheap is because those places are so big,” he said. “Big plants have much lower costs than little plants, so if we took that a step further and went to a system with a lot of little plants, our food is going to cost a lot more.”

“I just believe that COVID made people realize how important it is to support your local people,” Latham said.