Retailers can breathe a sigh of relief now that the Christmas holiday is over, capping months of laborious planning to keep shelves stocked over the busy shopping period. But it may not be much of a respite.What's happening: A new index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that tracks pressure on global supply chains indicated a slight drop between October and November."The seems to suggest that global supply chain pressures, while still historically high, have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward," the New York Fed's researchers said this week.But analysts looking ahead to 2022 aren't convinced conditions will meaningfully improve. They say the impact of the highly contagious omicron variant hasn't been fully realized, especially as some countries in Asia try to suppress all coronavirus outbreaks.Record infections are triggering shortfalls of workers at ports and other transit hubs, while "zero COVID" policies are affecting manufacturers that have been desperate to keep production on track following a surge in demand for goods."Already we're seeing labor shortages right across the supply chain," Martin Dixon, director of research products at the consultancy Drewry, told me.Chipmakers Samsung and Micron have had to adjust operations in the Chinese city of Xi'an, an industrial center that has been under strict lockdown since Dec. 23.Judah Levine, head researcher at Freightos Group, told me that shipping rates for 40-foot containers from Asia to North America's West Coast fell by about 25% in November as "peak season" ended and "have stayed about level since then."They're starting to rise again in advance of the Lunar New Year holiday in February, as consuming countries like the United States stock up on items before factories close in China. Levine doesn't think rates will return to peak season levels. However, he does think they'll stay high "as long as demand stays strong and ports continue to struggle with congestion.""Those will only subside once there is a decrease in consumer spending on goods, which, especially with the current omicron surge, does not look imminent," he said. Retailers are also working hard to rebuild depleted inventories, leading to an increase in orders.A true "back to normal" will happen slowly, likely over the course of 2023, Levine said.Bottom line: A slight moderation in costs from last fall won't make life much easier for companies across the supply chain. Furniture giant Ikea said last week that it would raise prices at its stores by an average of 9% in 2022 to help offset higher costs, including for transportation.Some carmakers have also indicated that they do not expect to be able to ramp up production in the first half of this year due to ongoing shortages of computer chips."Chip scarcity will also accompany us in 2022, particularly in the first half," Markus Schaefer, the chief technology officer of Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler, recently told journalists. "We do not expect significant production capacity increases in the first half of the year."

As the global supply chain crisis continues, retailers are working to meet consumer demand for the upcoming holiday season. It hasn't been easy. "We're trying to stay as upbeat as we can," said Brian Lawrence, president of Emigh's Hardware Store in Sacramento, California. "We're waiting on Christmas trees right now. Hoping they'll get here in the next few weeks."The trees, and other holiday goods, have been stuck on cargo ships docked at Los Angeles and Long Beach for months."Normally is here in October," Lawrence said. "Now it's probably mid-November to the later part of November." Shelves normally bursting with Christmas lights this time of year are now three-quarters or half full. The store is also seeing shortages in any product with metal or plastic parts."We normally have a lot more hacksaw blades, and right now we just have a few," Lawrence said. "We are trying to pivot and get products from different suppliers."Shipping delays are also causing issues with seasonal inventory. Lawrence says he only just received the shipment of patio furniture meant for the summer. Now, he'll have to figure out how to sell them in the fall and winter months. "We are doing our best to keep prices competitive," Lawrence said. "We used to pay $3,500 to $4,000 to get a container from overseas. Now it's upward of $20,000 for a container to get here."The crush of shipping delays and labor and inventory shortages is also being felt at Mixed Bag, another small business in California."It's been uncomfortable, to say the least," said owner Linda Novi.Her store only just got their Halloween inventory on Thursday, two weeks before the holiday."We're ordering more than we normally would because we know if we order 100 pieces we'll be lucky to get 50," Novi said.Her store is doing what it can to shield customers from prices that will inevitably have to increase, due to elevated shipping costs."It used to be $3,000 to $4,000 per container from overseas," Novi said. "It's now $15,000 to $16,000 per container. Our shipping prices have increased unbelievably."Mixed Bag is still waiting for items to come in from orders placed 10 months ago."There are a lot of vendors we ordered from in January and we still haven't ," said store manager Wendy Gray.