The supply chain crisis means last-minute gift buyers may have little choice but to go shopping the old-fashioned way this holiday season.

High demand, combined with supply chain delays, materials' shortages and troubles hiring workers, are shrinking the availability of items both online and at stores. As customers get closer to the last minute, physical stores will become a more appealing option for shoppers than waiting around for delivery, analysts expect.

Even if customers can't find exactly what they're looking for at a store, it's usually easier to browse around for an alternative in person — and they can try it on.

"Brick and mortar may be more attractive for consumers later in the season," Rod Sides, a vice chairman at Deloitte and leader of its U.S. retail and distribution practice, said in an email. "Shoppers can leave with goods in hand, versus waiting on promised dates from shippers."

Consumers saw more than 2 billion out-of-stock messages while browsing online in October, according to Adobe Analytics. That's a big reason why, in physical stores, sales will rise by 8% this year — a 10-year high — as shoppers return to in-person shopping and try to avoid shipping delays, according to real estate research firm CBRE.

Analysts also believe buy online, pickup in store orders will boom this holiday because of shipping concerns.

Shoppers will lean on curbside pickup "more than ever to give them peace of mind about their holiday purchases" with wait times and items out of stock high on consumers' minds, said Andrew Lipsman, a retail analyst at market research firm Insider Intelligence.

Retailers will heavily promote pickup as an option for customers on their websites and mobile apps, in marketing emails, and on television to appeal to customers anxious about buying online late in the season, Lipsman expects.

Stores say they have greater control over inventory in stores and through curbside pickup than they do on home delivery orders — meaning it's less likely there will be a mistake or delay on an order.

"The closer I got [to the holiday], I would absolutely be using the ship to store because that's going to give more confidence in being able to actually get the thing in time," Ben Johns, the general merchandising manager for action sports at outdoor equipment retailer REI, said in a recent interview.

When customers order online and pick up their items in stores, products are either in the store already or REI sends them from one of its warehouses using its own trucks. That means REI doesn't need to rely on third-party delivery carriers it has less control over to deliver to customers' homes, he said.

$5 off orders and free blankets

Retailers have an incentive to draw shoppers into their stores.

It's typically more profitable for retailers to have you shop in person than order to your home because they have to pay expensive last-mile delivery costs. Return rates are also higher for items purchased online, and retailers have to eat the costs for customers' returns.

Top retailers are pushing customers this year to visit their physical stores to shop or order online and scoop up their items in person.

Kohl' is offering customers $5 off orders when they pick them up in stores. It's also trying to make the pickup process smoother for customers by adding temporary new pickup locations and more designating parking spots for pickups, as well as a self-pickup test where customers can access their orders using a link and code.

Kohl's expects increased demand for pickup orders this year in part because it "eliminates the added stress of waiting for packages to arrive on your doorstep," Paul Gaffney, Kohl's chief technology and supply chain officer, said in an email.

Carter', the children's clothing chain, is offering customers gifts as an extra perk if they purchase items on certain days in stores — but not online — such as blankets from Nov. 19 to Nov. 21 and a Skip Hop toy from Dec. 10 to Dec. 12.

Randa Apparel & Accessories, which sells brands such as Levi's, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein and others, has shifted a large portion of its advertising spending to push customers to stores, instead of buying online. It's also directing more of its inventory to stores than e-commerce.

"When inventory is limited, we prefer to drive consumers to in-store purchases over online purchases," said David Katz, Randa's chief marketing officer.

Customers purchasing products in stores is more profitable for Randa than online sales, which often come with "very large reverse logistics costs" on return orders. "We've paid the tuition for this education, and it was an expensive lesson to learn," he said.

When shoppers come into stores, they also tend to make impulse purchases or buy related items nearby — belts, for example, near the pants they're buying. This happens less frequently when buying online.

Overall, Katz said, "the frustration level is lower when you go to mortar and brick, particularly when inventory is limited."

SAN DIEGO, Calif. — While they won't play Christmas music until after Thanksgiving, the Southern California business City Lights celebrates all year round.

"They have everything you think you want: cars, foods, snowman, and toilet paper!" said longtime customer Maureen Downey, pointing to an ornament.

Located in San Diego, City Lights Year Round Collectibles Emporium has built a cult following over three decades.

"Its toys for adults," said owner Brian Young. "It started off in a very small space, but it hit a niche and has been growing ever since."

A destination for customers like Downey, who come for collectibles and nostalgia.

"This type of place is getting harder to find, which means the item itself harder to find," said Young.

But nearly two years into the pandemic, Young isn't expecting a Christmas miracle this season.

"The cost of shipping and the cost of labor is making business very, very difficult."

He's among retailers nationwide gripped by a broken supply chain. Goods we rely on are stuck at sea as container ships wait in record numbers to deliver products to U.S. ports.

"There were 72 ships offshore waiting to be offloaded. Some of those have merchandise we're waiting for, unfortunately," said Young.

The Southern California ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are together the nation's busiest container port complex. The primary gateway for waterborne trade between the U.S. and Asia, they handle more than one-third of U.S. goods.

The backlog has grown at a record pace in recent weeks.

"Going into the holiday season, this thing is going to get worse. We haven't fixed our supply chain problems yet," said Hitendra Chaturvedi, an expert in supply chain management and professor of practice at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Teaching the next generation of supply chain leaders, Chaturvedi says the once-obscure profession is now under a global microscope.

"One of the feedback I got was, now, I don't have to tell my grandma what supply chain management is. When I tell her that I'm going to be getting a degree in supply chain, she knows what I'm talking about," said Chaturvedi.

With the delta variant spreading, toilet paper, cleaning supplies, and paper towels are once again in high demand. So much so that Costco is reinstating limits on how much you can buy. And with shipping delays, experts urge consumers to get their holiday shopping done now.

"I talk to a lot of CEOs of large transportation and logistics companies. They don't see this thing improving till the end of 2022," said Chaturvedi.

The system has been crippled by high demand and wide-scale labor shortages.

"And then the third, I call it the dark unbalance of supply chain. When there is an imbalance of supply and demand, you have hoarders, who've got nothing to do with this business; they would start to buy out capacity," said Chaturvedi. "There were people who started buying out shipping capacity, sit on it, jack up the prices and then sell."

To curb demand, Chaturvedi says interest rates could go up. He says some of the standards used to teach supply chain are being thrown out the window.

"An example, this whole idea of extremely lean operation, where there's no inventory storage, is something that is being questioned. The whole idea of risk management across supply chain has taken a new meaning altogether."

More vulnerable to volatility, Chaturvedi encourages consumers to support small businesses.

"We're a long way from out of the woods," said Young.

But with loyal customers in-store and online, the supply chain isn't stealing their holiday cheer.

"There's an old saying if you can't change it do the best you can and live with it," said Young. "We'll muddle through."