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	<title>redistricting &#8211; Cincy Link</title>
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		<title>Redistricting scrutinized as congressional maps are drawn</title>
		<link>https://cincylink.com/2022/03/05/redistricting-scrutinized-as-congressional-maps-are-drawn/</link>
					<comments>https://cincylink.com/2022/03/05/redistricting-scrutinized-as-congressional-maps-are-drawn/#respond</comments>
		
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		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Mar 2022 12:27:06 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://cincylink.com/?p=152981</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[RALEIGH, North Carolina — Once every ten years, the map of America turns into a board game. "The party that has the most seats has the power of the pen. They get to draw the maps," said Bill Phillips, the executive director of Common Cause North Carolina. What he's talking about is redistricting – when &#8230;]]></description>
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<p>RALEIGH, North Carolina — Once every ten years, the map of America turns into a board game.</p>
<p>"The party that has the most seats has the power of the pen. They get to draw the maps," said Bill Phillips, the executive director of Common Cause North Carolina. </p>
<p>What he's talking about is redistricting – when state congressional districts are redrawn to reflect the population gain or decline. Some states lose seats, others gain seats, all based on the census count. </p>
<p>In some states, a nonpartisan panel draws the districts, but in 39 states, the lawmakers choose their own district borders.</p>
<p>"I think most people are stunned to learn that. And I hate to use the word. Our elections are rigged. We live in a democracy, but because of the way the districts are drawn, we know who is going to win by and large," he said. </p>
<p>Common Cause is a non-partisan group whose mission is to protect fair elections. Something Phillips doesn’t believe can happen with how the system is set up.</p>
<p>"Out of the 435 congressional contests that will be up in November. Maybe 40 of them at most are actually competitive. That's just not healthy," he said. </p>
<p>You can see what he’s talking about by looking at the shapes in some of these districts. Take Illinois’ newly drawn 17<sup>th</sup>district. We all can agree that this… as far as shapes go… is an odd one. People like Phillips say it looks this way because of the party in power.</p>
<p>In this case, democrats want to include as many democratic voters as possible. </p>
<p>In Lousiana, Baton Rouge and New Orleans, despite being more than an hour away are in one blue district together in a sea of red. This pattern repeats across the country in states where lawmakers map the maps.</p>
<p>"Voting and redistricting is a part of the game of chess. So what is happening is that you have a group a party that looks to a stack the chips, or it looks to dilute the vote of others and it looks to draw lies in their favor," said Eric Claville, a political and legal analyst. </p>
<p>The practice of drawing lines in favor of political parties is called gerrymandering. Both Claville and Philips say gerrymandering has been one of the many ways politicians have tried to silence the voice of disenfranchised groups, like African Americans.</p>
<p>"We still see redistricting done that will often be discriminatory to Black voters, and by that, I mean districts are drawn that might pack Black voters or crack, and that is diluting, the actual vote of an African American voter," said Phillips. </p>
<p>Ohio, New York, Mississippi, Texas and North Carolina are some of the states with ongoing contentious maps battles. Political parties are suing over maps drawn by opposing parties. </p>
<p>"To protect the rights of all, to be able to vote and not just be able to vote, but also to vote in districts that are fair, that are equitable and that are challenging and not those districts that are going to disenfranchise the power of the voter," said Claville. </p>
<p>Learning about this issue can make voters feel powerless. Advocates say that is not the case. If these practices concern you, you still have a voice and you can use it to rallying change for non-partisan redistricting practices.</p>
<p>"No matter how much money is spent, no matter what happens in the media, it boils down to this one point: one person, one vote. So if you could engage, if you could bring together a mass of votes, then you have the power in order to dictate the conversation and ultimately the outcome," said Claville. </p>
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		<title>Biden&#8217;s agenda faces obstacles</title>
		<link>https://cincylink.com/2022/01/24/bidens-agenda-faces-obstacles/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Jan 2022 19:37:02 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://cincylink.com/?p=140176</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[WASHINGTON, D.C. — Helping veterans with toxic lung conditions, creating more computer chips to cut through supply chain issues and passing long-sought climate change and voting legislation all remain part of President Joe Biden's agenda this week. However, it's not the issues that may be the president's biggest obstacle going forward: It may be time &#8230;]]></description>
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<p>WASHINGTON, D.C. — Helping veterans with toxic lung conditions, creating more computer chips to cut through supply chain issues and passing long-sought climate change and voting legislation all remain part of President Joe Biden's agenda this week.</p>
<p>However, it's not the issues that may be the president's biggest obstacle going forward: It may be time and the hotly-contested midterm election later this year.</p>
<p><b>PUSH BY PRESIDENT</b></p>
<p>The president attempted to hit the reset button last week during his press conference at the White House.</p>
<p>"A job not yet finished," Biden said.</p>
<p>Modest election changes are possible. New COVID-19 relief spending is also still on the table. Funding for the environment and pre-K education programs also remain negotiable.</p>
<p>Biden hinted at enacting some of his agenda through executive orders if Congress doesn't act.</p>
<p><b>TIME CONCERNS</b></p>
<p>Biden may only be done with his first year in office, but there is a growing sense in Washington that he doesn't have all the time in the world to get his ambitions accomplished.</p>
<p>It's an election year, and polls suggest Democrats may lose control of at least one chamber of Congress.</p>
<p>"I don't believe the polls," Biden said last Wednesday.</p>
<p>While the president may not believe the polling, he can't dismiss that at least 28 Democrats in the House are retiring.</p>
<p>While some are doing so to run for a different office, it is a number that's higher than usual and a sign Democrats may have some tough political fights this year.</p>
<p><b>REDISTRICTING BATTLES</b></p>
<p>It's not just retirements by well-known members of Congress impacting the president. Democrats are facing difficult redistricting fights too.</p>
<p>What is redistricting? It is the once-in-a-decade process of redrawing congressional maps following the U.S. Census to account for population changes. The process could mean millions across the country will be voting for new representatives this year.</p>
<p>In Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is pushing his party to draw maps that favor the GOP more than what had already been proposed.</p>
<p>In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear vetoed a redistricting map that heavily favors Republicans. However, the state legislature overruled him.</p>
<p>In Tennessee, Republicans are advancing plans to make it easier to win near Nashville. The same is true in Kansas, where the GOP hopes to fair better in races near Kansas City.</p>
<p>All of that puts pressure on Biden to get something done soon. However, getting something done in a divided Washington isn't easy.</p>
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		<title>Covington included in Beshear&#8217;s budget propsal</title>
		<link>https://cincylink.com/2022/01/12/covington-included-in-beshears-budget-propsal/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Jan 2022 19:17:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://cincylink.com/?p=136709</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[COVINGTON, Ky. — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear's budget proposal includes a major investment in the City of Covington. In a news release, the governor requested that $10 million be put into creating a new life sciences research lab. The goal of the lab is to boost Covington’s economy through adding jobs and making the city &#8230;]]></description>
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<p>COVINGTON, Ky. — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear's budget proposal includes a major investment in the City of Covington. In a news release, the governor requested that $10 million be put into creating a new life sciences research lab.</p>
<p>The goal of the lab is to boost Covington’s economy through adding jobs and making the city more attractive for life sciences research. The lab has already been in the works through a collaboration with the city, local companies and Northern Kentucky University. However, officials say that executing on big investments in Covington like this one will be difficult if state government redistricts the area.</p>
<p>“Normally, if you have a person that is part of our community, they become more readily aware of and understand the totality of the environment in which these requests are made and therefore can be a more effective advocate,” Mayor Joe Meyer said. “With the changes, we’re going to have to a broader job to reach out to legislators who are not as familiar with our community.”</p>
<p>Meyer said Covington officials will be working closely with northern Kentucky legislators to make sure the lab’s investment plan stays in the budget as it moves through the Kentucky House and Senate.</p>
<p>The governor's budget also notes infrastructure projects like the Brent Spence companion bridge project. </p>
<p>“We are charting the path to building the Brent Spence companion bridge without tolls,” Beshear said.</p>
<p>For more information on Beshear's proposals for economic development, click here.</p>
<p><b>READ MORE</b><br />Beshear outlines proposals for economic development, tourism<br />Infrastructure bill signed into law could impact Cincinnati beyond Brent Spence Bridge</p>
<p><iframe title="Will new infrastructure bill go to Brent Spence Bridge?" width="1220" height="686" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NI2AKKa4T78?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
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		<title>Ohio redistricting battle heads to state Supreme Court</title>
		<link>https://cincylink.com/2021/12/08/ohio-redistricting-battle-heads-to-state-supreme-court/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Dec 2021 22:17:06 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[COLUMBUS, Ohio — The shape of Ohio’s state government for the next decade is in the balance, as the Ohio Supreme Court hears arguments on new legislative maps. Voter-rights and Democratic groups say the maps are gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Justices can either affirm the maps or send them back to be redrawn. Ohio voters &#8230;]]></description>
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<p>COLUMBUS, Ohio — The shape of Ohio’s state government for the next decade is in the balance, as the Ohio Supreme Court hears arguments on new legislative maps. </p>
<p>Voter-rights and Democratic groups say the maps are gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Justices can either affirm the maps or send them back to be redrawn. </p>
<p>Ohio voters gave the high court with its 4-3 Republican majority exclusive jurisdiction to settle map disputes. Moderate Republican Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor is viewed as a potentially pivotal swing vote. Three separate court challenges have been consolidated for purposes of the arguments. </p>
<p>A quick decision is expected, as the 2022 candidate filing deadline is Feb. 2.</p>
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		<title>Census data kicks off effort to reshape US House districts for the next decade</title>
		<link>https://cincylink.com/2021/08/13/census-data-kicks-off-effort-to-reshape-us-house-districts-for-the-next-decade/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Aug 2021 04:29:12 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://cincylink.com/?p=80647</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The U.S. Census Bureau is releasing new population data that will be used to reshape U.S. House seats and state legislative districts for the next decade. The data being released Thursday shows the population of counties, cities and neighborhoods in the 2020 census. That will serve as the building block for redistricting that must be &#8230;]]></description>
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<p>
					The U.S. Census Bureau is releasing new population data that will be used to reshape U.S. House seats and state legislative districts for the next decade. The data being released Thursday shows the population of counties, cities and neighborhoods in the 2020 census. That will serve as the building block for redistricting that must be done in most states before the 2022 elections. The official goal is to redraw districts with roughly the same number of people. But many Republicans and Democrats also will be trying to draw districts that make it more likely for their candidates to win.Redistricting season officially kicks off with the release of detailed population data from the U.S. Census Bureau that will be used to redraw voting districts nationwide — potentially helping determine control of the U.S. House in the 2022 elections and providing an electoral edge for the next decade. The new data being released Thursday will show which counties, cities and neighborhoods gained or lost the most people in the 2020 census. That will serve as the building block to redraw 429 U.S. House districts in 44 states and 7,383 state legislative districts across the U.S. The official goal is to ensure each district has roughly the same number of people. But many Republicans and Democrats will be operating with another goal — to ensure the new lines divide and combine voters in ways that make it more likely for their party's candidates to win future elections, a process called gerrymandering. The parties' successes in that effort could determine whether taxes and spending grow, climate-change polices are approved or access to abortion is expanded or curtailed. Republicans need to gain just five seats to take control of the U.S. House in the 2022 elections — a margin that could potentially be covered through artful redistricting. "Redistricting really is the ballgame this cycle in the House," said David Wasserman, an analyst for congressional races at The Cook Political Report. "Even tiny changes to district lines could have huge implications that tip the balance of power in the House."As they did after the 2010 census, Republicans will hold greater sway in the redistricting process. The GOP will control redistricting in 20 states accounting for 187 U.S. House seats, including the growing states of Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. By contrast, Democrats will control redistricting in just eight states accounting for 75 seats, including New York and Illinois, where the loss of a seat in each gives them a chance to squeeze out Republican incumbents.In 16 other states accounting for 167 U.S. House seats, districts will be drawn either by independent commissions or by politically split politicians with legislative chambers led by one party and governors of another. Six states have just one U.S. House seat, so there are no district lines to be drawn.States with significant population shifts provide some of the best opportunities for parties to gain an advantage through redistricting. They can add a favorable district, eliminate one held by their opponent or redraw a competitive district to contain a more comfortable majority of supporters. In Texas, where Republicans hold 23 of the 36 U.S. House seats, fast growth in suburban Houston, Dallas and Austin helped the state gain two seats in the new round of redistricting. That growth has been driven by the migration of young, Latino, Black and college-educated residents — all core Democratic constituencies, said Kelly Ward Burton, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. "If you look at how the population has shifted over the decade and you draw a map that is consistent with that, Democrats gain seats," Burton said. But Republicans in charge of redistricting could draw maps that split up those Democratic-leaning voters, adding some to predominantly Republican districts to give the GOP a shot at winning even more seats in Texas. In Florida, which also is gaining a U.S. House seat, Republicans could use redistricting as an opportunity to redraw lines in rapidly growing central Florida to try to ensure Democratic-held seats have more GOP voters. Democratic Reps. Charlie Crist in St. Petersburg and Val Demings in Orlando are pursuing gubernatorial and U.S. Senate bids, respectively, leaving those districts without incumbents and making them obvious targets for reshaping.After the 2010 census, Republicans who controlled redistricting in far more states than Democrats drew maps that gave them a greater political advantage in more states than either party had in the past 50 years, according to a new Associated Press analysis. But Republicans won't hold as much power as they did last time in some key states. Republican-led legislatures will be paired with Democratic governors in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which both had full GOP control after the 2010 census. In Michigan, a voter-approved citizens commission will handle redistricting instead of lawmakers and the governor. And in Ohio, voter-approved redistricting reforms will require majority Republicans to gain the support of minority Democrats for the new districts to last a full decade. Ultimately, no matter how lines are drawn, elections are won based on the quality of candidates and their stance on issues, said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the GOP's redistricting hub."Republicans will take back the House next year because of Congressional Democrats' outdated policies and President Biden's failed leadership," Kincaid said. The redistricting process will be conducted on a compressed timeline. States are getting the data more than four months later than originally scheduled because of difficulties in conducting the 2020 census during the coronavirus pandemic. That means map-drawers will have to work quickly to meet constitutional deadlines in some states or seek judicial approval to take longer. Ohio's constitution, for example, sets a Sept. 15 deadline for a board to approve new state legislative maps. "We're in a bit of a fix over how quickly we can get this done," said Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman, a Republican who is a member of the redistricting board. In many states, the new districts are likely to face lawsuits as political parties continue jockeying for the best possible maps. After the 2010 census, redistricting lawsuits lasted for much of the following decade and led to significant changes in some states. Democrats gained a total of 11 seats in the U.S. House after courts struck down Republican-drawn districts in four states and ordered new ones between the 2016 and 2020 elections. "If it hadn't been for Democratic lawsuits that overturned Republican-drawn maps in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Virginia, Democrats would not be sitting in the majority in the House right now," Wasserman said.
				</p>
<div>
<p>The U.S. Census Bureau is releasing new population data that will be used to reshape U.S. House seats and state legislative districts for the next decade. The data being released Thursday shows the population of counties, cities and neighborhoods in the 2020 census. That will serve as the building block for redistricting that must be done in most states before the 2022 elections. The official goal is to redraw districts with roughly the same number of people. But many Republicans and Democrats also will be trying to draw districts that make it more likely for their candidates to win.</p>
<p>Redistricting season officially kicks off with the release of detailed population data from the U.S. Census Bureau that will be used to redraw voting districts nationwide — potentially helping determine control of the U.S. House in the 2022 elections and providing an electoral edge for the next decade. </p>
<p>The new data being released Thursday will show which counties, cities and neighborhoods gained or lost the most people in the 2020 census. That will serve as the building block to redraw 429 U.S. House districts in 44 states and 7,383 state legislative districts across the U.S. The official goal is to ensure each district has roughly the same number of people. </p>
<p>But many Republicans and Democrats will be operating with another goal — to ensure the new lines divide and combine voters in ways that make it more likely for their party's candidates to win future elections, a process called gerrymandering. The parties' successes in that effort could determine whether taxes and spending grow, climate-change polices are approved or access to abortion is expanded or curtailed. </p>
<p>Republicans need to gain just five seats to take control of the U.S. House in the 2022 elections — a margin that could potentially be covered through artful redistricting. </p>
<p>"Redistricting really is the ballgame this cycle in the House," said David Wasserman, an analyst for congressional races at The Cook Political Report. "Even tiny changes to district lines could have huge implications that tip the balance of power in the House."</p>
<p>As they did after the 2010 census, Republicans will hold greater sway in the redistricting process. </p>
<p>The GOP will control redistricting in 20 states accounting for 187 U.S. House seats, including the growing states of Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. By contrast, Democrats will control redistricting in just eight states accounting for 75 seats, including New York and Illinois, where the loss of a seat in each gives them a chance to squeeze out Republican incumbents.</p>
<p>In 16 other states accounting for 167 U.S. House seats, districts will be drawn either by independent commissions or by politically split politicians with legislative chambers led by one party and governors of another. Six states have just one U.S. House seat, so there are no district lines to be drawn.</p>
<p>States with significant population shifts provide some of the best opportunities for parties to gain an advantage through redistricting. They can add a favorable district, eliminate one held by their opponent or redraw a competitive district to contain a more comfortable majority of supporters. </p>
<p>In Texas, where Republicans hold 23 of the 36 U.S. House seats, fast growth in suburban Houston, Dallas and Austin helped the state gain two seats in the new round of redistricting. That growth has been driven by the migration of young, Latino, Black and college-educated residents — all core Democratic constituencies, said Kelly Ward Burton, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. </p>
<p>"If you look at how the population has shifted over the decade and you draw a map that is consistent with that, Democrats gain seats," Burton said. </p>
<p>But Republicans in charge of redistricting could draw maps that split up those Democratic-leaning voters, adding some to predominantly Republican districts to give the GOP a shot at winning even more seats in Texas. </p>
<p>In Florida, which also is gaining a U.S. House seat, Republicans could use redistricting as an opportunity to redraw lines in rapidly growing central Florida to try to ensure Democratic-held seats have more GOP voters. Democratic Reps. Charlie Crist in St. Petersburg and Val Demings in Orlando are pursuing gubernatorial and U.S. Senate bids, respectively, leaving those districts without incumbents and making them obvious targets for reshaping.</p>
<p>After the 2010 census, Republicans who controlled redistricting in far more states than Democrats drew maps that gave them a greater political advantage in more states than either party had in the past 50 years, according to a new Associated Press analysis. </p>
<p>But Republicans won't hold as much power as they did last time in some key states. Republican-led legislatures will be paired with Democratic governors in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which both had full GOP control after the 2010 census. In Michigan, a voter-approved citizens commission will handle redistricting instead of lawmakers and the governor. And in Ohio, voter-approved redistricting reforms will require majority Republicans to gain the support of minority Democrats for the new districts to last a full decade. </p>
<p>Ultimately, no matter how lines are drawn, elections are won based on the quality of candidates and their stance on issues, said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the GOP's redistricting hub.</p>
<p>"Republicans will take back the House next year because of Congressional Democrats' outdated policies and President Biden's failed leadership," Kincaid said. </p>
<p>The redistricting process will be conducted on a compressed timeline. States are getting the data more than four months later than originally scheduled because of difficulties in conducting the 2020 census during the coronavirus pandemic. </p>
<p>That means map-drawers will have to work quickly to meet constitutional deadlines in some states or seek judicial approval to take longer. Ohio's constitution, for example, sets a Sept. 15 deadline for a board to approve new state legislative maps. </p>
<p>"We're in a bit of a fix over how quickly we can get this done," said Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman, a Republican who is a member of the redistricting board. </p>
<p>In many states, the new districts are likely to face lawsuits as political parties continue jockeying for the best possible maps. After the 2010 census, redistricting lawsuits lasted for much of the following decade and led to significant changes in some states. Democrats gained a total of 11 seats in the U.S. House after courts struck down Republican-drawn districts in four states and ordered new ones between the 2016 and 2020 elections. </p>
<p>"If it hadn't been for Democratic lawsuits that overturned Republican-drawn maps in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Virginia, Democrats would not be sitting in the majority in the House right now," Wasserman said.</p>
</p></div>
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		<title>South emerges as flashpoint of brewing redistricting battle</title>
		<link>https://cincylink.com/2021/07/16/south-emerges-as-flashpoint-of-brewing-redistricting-battle/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jul 2021 04:48:31 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[The partisan showdown over redistricting has hardly begun, but already both sides agree on one thing: It largely comes down to the South.The states from North Carolina to Texas are set to be premier battlegrounds for the once-a-decade fight over redrawing political boundaries. That's thanks to a population boom, mostly one-party rule and a new &#8230;]]></description>
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<p>
					The partisan showdown over redistricting has hardly begun, but already both sides agree on one thing: It largely comes down to the South.The states from North Carolina to Texas are set to be premier battlegrounds for the once-a-decade fight over redrawing political boundaries. That's thanks to a population boom, mostly one-party rule and a new legal landscape that removes federal oversight and delays civil rights challenges. It's a collision of factors likely to tilt the scales in the GOP’s favor with dramatic impact: Experts note the new maps in the South alone could knock Democrats out of power in the U.S. House next year — and perhaps well beyond. “The South is really going to stand out,” said Ryan Weichelt, a geography professor at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire who tracks redistricting. Of the 10 new congressional seats expected this year, six are likely to be in Southern states, with one new one expected in North Carolina, two in Florida and three in Texas. Republicans control the legislatures in those states, leaving them with near total say over what those new districts will look like — a sharp contrast to other parts of the country where state governments are either divided or where nonpartisan commissions are tasked with redrawing congressional and state legislative lines. Finally, this will be the first time in more than 50 years the Justice Department will not automatically review new legislative maps in nine mostly Southern states to ensure they do not discriminate. "It is a very different landscape from the one that it’s been for 50-plus years,” said Deuel Ross, senior counsel at the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. Republicans are under added pressure to bolster their political standing in the region as its population has grown, largely due to an influx of Democratic-leaning newcomers. That’s weakened the GOP’s grip, highlighted most dramatically in Georgia, where Democrats just won a presidential race and two Senate races. Related video: Georgia Senate votes to curb absentee ballotsThe party is already eyeing targets. In Georgia, they can choose whether to target Democratic Reps. Lucy McBath or Carolyn Boudreaux or both by adding more conservative voters from far north of Atlanta to the two lawmakers' districts.In Florida, they could try to swamp Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy's district with new GOP voters as they carve out a new seat in the Orlando area, one of the two the state is expected to add. And in Texas, which is expected to gain a whopping three congressional seats, the most of any state, the GOP may try to carve out more seats in the center of their state's boom — Democratic-leaning Houston — that could still elect Republicans.Currently, a gain of five seats would hand control of the House to the GOP. That number may rise or fall before November 2020 depending on the outcome of special elections for several vacant seats.To be sure, there will be limits — both legal and practical — on how much power Republicans can win with a new map. While they control the process, the demographic trends in Southern states are working against them. Many of the new residents are college-educated, racially diverse and young — all groups Republicans have struggled to win over. That means the party can only draw so many “safe” districts. And, because these states are seeing explosive growth, efforts to perfectly divvy up major cities like Houston and Atlanta may collapse over time as tens of thousands of new residents continue to move in. “You’ve got all these countervailing things," said Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist. "Democrats doing better in suburban areas, states getting more diverse, coupled with Republicans being in control of all the levers of government.”Control in the South has a history of leading to rigging the democratic process — from voting rules to district maps — to disempower Black voters. In Georgia, the state's GOP-controlled legislature is responding to Democrats' recent surge and former President Donald Trump's false claim of voter fraud with a raft of proposals that would make it harder to vote — including one to end Sunday early voting, popular among Black churchgoers.Such restrictions wouldn't have been possible eight years ago, when the Justice Department was required to approve any changes ahead of time in states with a history of voting rights violations. But, in 2013, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court struck down federal requirements that Georgia and eight other states “preclear” voting and redistricting changes. It ruled the federal formula based on the states' previous violations was outdated.Several states — including Texas and North and South Carolina — quickly responded with new voter identification laws. Some civil rights advocates fear the party will take advantage of the lack of oversight in redistricting as well.“If they’re using what was obviously a lie about voter fraud in 2020 to pass new restrictions on voting in Georgia and Texas, then I think the same will apply when the Census data comes out” to kick off the redistricting process, Ross said. Redistricting on the basis of race remains illegal under the Voting Rights Act. But proving a violation can take years in court, allowing multiple elections to go forward with maps that may later be found illegal. For example, in North Carolina — the Republican legislature alone has redistricting power, without input from the state's Democratic governor — the legislature drew maps in 2010 that were eventually found to be racially gerrymandered. But those maps remained in place for two House elections before being redrawn to cost the GOP two seats.“It means a state can engage in midnight gerrymandering and essentially evade court review, run elections with those gerrymandered maps and get away with it until the next election," said Kathay Feng, Common Cause's redistricting director.Jason Torchinsky, general counsel of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said there's significant limits on what Republican legislatures could accomplish even if they went down the road of racial gerrymandering — which, he noted, could still result in damaging lawsuits and injunctions against maps from federal judges.“This notion that, somehow, the lack of preclearance is going to leave minorities unprotected is false,” Torchinsky said.Some Republicans note the party should be careful not to let its power over the rules and the boundaries replace persuasion. It must still try to win over new arrivals in the South with ideas. “We need to remind these new residents that they're moving to these states, ideally, based on policies Republicans have put in place,” said Hooff Cooksey, a Virginia-based GOP strategist.Virginia looms as a warning to the GOP — a once solidly Republican state that became a solidly Democratic one as the growing, educated population in the Washington, D.C., suburbs turned against the party. A federal court redrew the state's maps in 2016 because it found the legislature — split between both parties — and a Republican governor had improperly used racial criteria in redistricting. Democrats won the statehouse in 2019 and Virginia now uses a nonpartisan commission to draw its legislative maps.
				</p>
<div>
<p>The partisan showdown over redistricting has hardly begun, but already both sides agree on one thing: It largely comes down to the South.</p>
<p>The states from North Carolina to Texas are set to be premier battlegrounds for the once-a-decade fight over redrawing political boundaries. That's thanks to a population boom, mostly one-party rule and a new legal landscape that removes federal oversight and delays civil rights challenges. </p>
<p>It's a collision of factors likely to tilt the scales in the GOP’s favor with dramatic impact: Experts note the new maps in the South alone could knock Democrats out of power in the U.S. House next year — and perhaps well beyond. </p>
<p>“The South is really going to stand out,” said Ryan Weichelt, a geography professor at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire who tracks redistricting. </p>
<p>Of the 10 new congressional seats expected this year, six are likely to be in Southern states, with one new one expected in North Carolina, two in Florida and three in Texas. </p>
<p>Republicans control the legislatures in those states, leaving them with near total say over what those new districts will look like — a sharp contrast to other parts of the country where state governments are either divided or where nonpartisan commissions are tasked with redrawing congressional and state legislative lines. </p>
<p>Finally, this will be the first time in more than 50 years the Justice Department will not automatically review new legislative maps in nine mostly Southern states to ensure they do not discriminate. </p>
<p>"It is a very different landscape from the one that it’s been for 50-plus years,” said Deuel Ross, senior counsel at the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. </p>
<p>Republicans are under added pressure to bolster their political standing in the region as its population has grown, largely due to an influx of Democratic-leaning newcomers. That’s weakened the GOP’s grip, highlighted most dramatically in Georgia, where Democrats just won a presidential race and two Senate races. <em><strong><br /></strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Related video: </strong></em><em><strong>Georgia Senate votes to curb absentee ballots</strong></em></p>
<p>The party is already eyeing targets. In Georgia, they can choose whether to target Democratic Reps. Lucy McBath or Carolyn Boudreaux or both by adding more conservative voters from far north of Atlanta to the two lawmakers' districts.</p>
<p>In Florida, they could try to swamp Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy's district with new GOP voters as they carve out a new seat in the Orlando area, one of the two the state is expected to add. </p>
<p>And in Texas, which is expected to gain a whopping three congressional seats, the most of any state, the GOP may try to carve out more seats in the center of their state's boom — Democratic-leaning Houston — that could still elect Republicans.</p>
<p>Currently, a gain of five seats would hand control of the House to the GOP. That number may rise or fall before November 2020 depending on the outcome of special elections for several vacant seats.</p>
<p>To be sure, there will be limits — both legal and practical — on how much power Republicans can win with a new map. While they control the process, the demographic trends in Southern states are working against them. Many of the new residents are college-educated, racially diverse and young — all groups Republicans have struggled to win over. </p>
<p>That means the party can only draw so many “safe” districts. And, because these states are seeing explosive growth, efforts to perfectly divvy up major cities like Houston and Atlanta may collapse over time as tens of thousands of new residents continue to move in. </p>
<p>“You’ve got all these countervailing things," said Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist. "Democrats doing better in suburban areas, states getting more diverse, coupled with Republicans being in control of all the levers of government.”</p>
<p>Control in the South has a history of leading to rigging the democratic process — from voting rules to district maps — to disempower Black voters. In Georgia, the state's GOP-controlled legislature is responding to Democrats' recent surge and former President Donald Trump's false claim of voter fraud with a raft of proposals that would make it harder to vote — including one to end Sunday early voting, popular among Black churchgoers.</p>
<p>Such restrictions wouldn't have been possible eight years ago, when the Justice Department was required to approve any changes ahead of time in states with a history of voting rights violations. But, in 2013, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court struck down federal requirements that Georgia and eight other states “preclear” voting and redistricting changes. It ruled the federal formula based on the states' previous violations was outdated.</p>
<p>Several states — including Texas and North and South Carolina — quickly responded with new voter identification laws. Some civil rights advocates fear the party will take advantage of the lack of oversight in redistricting as well.</p>
<p>“If they’re using what was obviously a lie about voter fraud in 2020 to pass new restrictions on voting in Georgia and Texas, then I think the same will apply when the Census data comes out” to kick off the redistricting process, Ross said. </p>
<p>Redistricting on the basis of race remains illegal under the Voting Rights Act. But proving a violation can take years in court, allowing multiple elections to go forward with maps that may later be found illegal. For example, in North Carolina — the Republican legislature alone has redistricting power, without input from the state's Democratic governor — the legislature drew maps in 2010 that were eventually found to be racially gerrymandered. But those maps remained in place for two House elections before being redrawn to cost the GOP two seats.</p>
<p>“It means a state can engage in midnight gerrymandering and essentially evade court review, run elections with those gerrymandered maps and get away with it until the next election," said Kathay Feng, Common Cause's redistricting director.</p>
<p>Jason Torchinsky, general counsel of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said there's significant limits on what Republican legislatures could accomplish even if they went down the road of racial gerrymandering — which, he noted, could still result in damaging lawsuits and injunctions against maps from federal judges.</p>
<p>“This notion that, somehow, the lack of preclearance is going to leave minorities unprotected is false,” Torchinsky said.</p>
<p>Some Republicans note the party should be careful not to let its power over the rules and the boundaries replace persuasion. It must still try to win over new arrivals in the South with ideas. </p>
<p>“We need to remind these new residents that they're moving to these states, ideally, based on policies Republicans have put in place,” said Hooff Cooksey, a Virginia-based GOP strategist.</p>
<p>Virginia looms as a warning to the GOP — a once solidly Republican state that became a solidly Democratic one as the growing, educated population in the Washington, D.C., suburbs turned against the party. A federal court redrew the state's maps in 2016 because it found the legislature — split between both parties — and a Republican governor had improperly used racial criteria in redistricting. </p>
<p>Democrats won the statehouse in 2019 and Virginia now uses a nonpartisan commission to draw its legislative maps.</p>
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