Day after day, Russia is pounding the Donbas region of Ukraine with relentless artillery and air raids, making slow but steady progress in seizing the industrial heartland of its neighbor.

With the conflict now in its fourth month, it's a high-stakes campaign that could dictate the course of the entire war.

Suppose Russia prevails in the battle of Donbas. In that case, it will mean that Ukraine loses not only land but perhaps the bulk of its most capable military forces, opening the way for Moscow to grab more territory and dictate its terms to Kyiv. A Russian failure could lay the grounds for a Ukrainian counteroffensive — and possibly lead to political upheaval for the Kremlin.

Following botched early attempts in the invasion to capture Kyiv and the second-largest city of Kharkiv without proper planning and coordination, Russia turned its attention to the Donbas, a region of mines and factories where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014.

Learning from its earlier missteps, Russia is treading more carefully there, relying on longer-range bombardments to soften Ukrainian defenses.

It seems to be working: The better-equipped Russian forces have made gains in both the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that make up the Donbas, controlling over 95% of the former and about half of the latter.

Ukraine is losing between 100 and 200 soldiers a day, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told the BBC, as Russia has “thrown pretty much everything non-nuclear at the front.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier put the daily death toll at up to 100.

When the war was going badly for Russia, many thought President Vladimir Putin might claim victory after some gains in Donbas and then exit a conflict that had seriously bruised the economy and stretched its resources. But the Kremlin has made clear it expects Ukraine to recognize all the gains Russia has made since the start of the invasion — something Kyiv has ruled out.

Russian forces control the entire Sea of Azov coast, including the strategic port of Mariupol, the Kherson region — a key gateway to Crimea — and a large chunk of the Zaporizhzhia region, which could aid a further push deeper into Ukraine. Few expect that Putin will stop.

Russia has a clear edge in artillery in the battle for Donbas, thanks to a more significant number of heavy howitzers, rocket launchers, and abundant ammunition. The Ukrainians have had to be economical in using their artillery, with the Russians constantly targeting their supply lines.

Moscow's earlier territorial gains in the south, including the Kherson region and a large part of the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region, have prompted Russian officials and their local appointees to ponder plans to fold those areas into Russia or declare them to be independent, like the so-called “people's republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Ukrainian officials and Western analysts voiced concern that Moscow could try to press its offensive into the heavily populated and industrialized Dnipro region farther north, an advance that could potentially slice Ukraine in two and raise a new threat for Kyiv.

Such ambitions all hinge on Moscow's success in the east. A defeat in the Donbas would put Kyiv in a precarious position, with new recruits lacking the skills of battle-hardened soldiers now fighting in the east and supplies of Western weapons insufficient to fend off a potentially deeper Russian push.

Ukrainian officials brushed off such fears, voicing confidence that its military can hold out to stem the Russian advances and even launch a counterattack.

Additional reporting by The Associated Press.

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that more U.S.-Russian prisoner exchanges are possible if Moscow and Washington find a compromise.

Putin spoke a day after Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout was swapped for WNBA star and two-time Olympian Brittney Griner.

Asked after a summit in Kyrgyzstan whether other prisoners could be swapped, Putin replied that "everything is possible," noting that "compromises have been found" that cleared the way for Thursday's exchange of Griner for Bout.

"We aren't refusing to continue this work in the future," the Russian leader said, making his first comments about the closely watched trade.

Despite negotiating for Griner's release, the most high-profile American jailed abroad, the U.S. failed to win freedom for another American, Paul Whelan. The Michigan corporate security executive has been imprisoned in Russia since December 2018 on espionage charges that his family and the U.S. government have said are baseless.

U.S. officials said they did not see an immediate path to bringing about Whelan's release, saying Russia has treated his case differently because of the "sham espionage" charges against him. Still, they said they believe communication channels with the Russians remain open for negotiations about his freedom.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said: "We registered what Mr. Putin said, let's see what he actually does."

Putin said the U.S.-Russia talks that resulted in Thursday's exchange didn't touch on other subjects.

"Whether this could set stage for a dialogue with the U.S. is a separate issue," he said. "We didn't set the task to move from those talks to something else, but they do create a certain atmosphere."

On a similar note, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was Russian and U.S. intelligence agencies that agreed to exchange Bout for Griner and their contacts were focused exclusively on hammering out its specifics.

"It has no impact on the overall state of bilateral ties that looks sad," Peskov said in televised remarks.

Peskov said that "special services may continue their work if necessary," and also noted the role of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in helping broker the swap.

Bout, dubbed the "Merchant of Death" who provided arms for some of the world's worst conflicts and spent over 14 years behind bars in the U.S., was seen in Russia as unjustly imprisoned after an overly aggressive U.S. sting operation.

Russian state media hailed his release, carrying footage of him talking to his family from a private jet following a swap at Abu Dhabi's airport and then embracing his wife and his mother on a snowy tarmac in Moscow.

Speaking in an interview for RT channel with Maria Butina, who also served 18 months in a U.S. prison after being convicted of acting as an unregistered foreign agent in the United States, Bout said he was still struggling to control his emotions after his imprisonment.

He charged that the West's long-held objective was to destroy Russia.

"The West believes that it has failed to finish us off when the Soviet Union began to collapse," Bout said. "And our efforts to live independently, be an independent power, is a shock to them."

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has split the hacking community, sending some of the most recognizable and powerful groups scrambling to pick a side to declare which has their allegiance.

In a tweet, hacking group Anonymous declared "a cyberwar against the Russian government" and has claimed to be responsible for attacks that brought down Russia Today, a state-backed news outlet, and several government websites. It also said it hacked other Russian state-TV channels.

Conti, a ransomware group with possible ties to Russian intelligence that attacked more than 290 American targets last year, declared its "full support of Russian government" and said it would use "all possible resources to strike back" at any adversaries. Cyberthreat intelligence company Orpheus Cyber reported another group united with Russia obtained stolen data from more than 45 Ukrainian government websites, and some of it is up for sale.

Motives that push hacking groups to pick a side range widely. Members of Anonymous have stated that their guiding principle is "anti-oppression," while Russian-aligned attacks may be state-sponsored. Pro-Russia attacks can also come from groups who feel pressured to operate on their behalf by the Kremlin.

"It's not entirely clear what the connection is between the ransomware gangs and the Russian government," said Brett Callow, a threat analyst at Emsisoft. "At best, they are working within a permissive environment. At worst, they are working for certain wings of the Russian government."

"Some of the actions of Russia's government just prior to the war — shutting down the REvil gang or arresting them and shutting down a number of dark web forums and shops — these cybercriminals are afraid that if they don't support the regime, they're going to be next," said Alex Holden, the founder of Hold Security.

Hacking groups may become targets for moving away from their usual financial motives for attacks. After Conti declared support for Russia, an apparent insider who objected to the group's support for Russia leaked a trove of internal chat messages and other files that Holden says "mortally wounded" the gang.

"When we see things like this, we are learning how in 2021, 2022, cybercriminal enterprises operate, so we have [the] ability to detect and deter organizations like this in the future," Holden said.

Moving forward, experts say that any further cyber escalation could spell trouble for those outside the conflict zone, including Americans. Groups like Conti could come back to hit the U.S. as well.

"They are a highly effective ransomware group, albeit one that has terrible operational security," Callow said. "They likely do still have access to certain U.S. networks that they have yet to encrypt, and they could potentially do that any time."

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Amid heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia, lawmakers are looking at the potential implications of the next moves. 

The Pentagon announced it planned to send forces to Poland, Romania and Germany to bolster NATO's eastern flank, while more forces remain on standby. 

The U.S. Helsinki Commission, a commission independent of the federal government, met Wednesday to discuss the developing situation and hear insight into the implications beyond Ukraine and what messages potential U.S. actions send. 

"The Kremlin's threat menaces not only Ukraine, our partners in Georgia, and the wider region but also the long-cherished dream and long-standing bipartisan U.S. policy to work towards a Europe whole and free," said Sen. Ben Cardin, the commission's chairman. 

It comes as Congress debates sanctions on Russia. Ukraine's foreign minister said it's preparing for all possible scenarios, but that active diplomacy works. 

"It puts a lot of pressure on us but it is still insufficient for a large-scale military operation against Ukraine," said Dmytro Kuleba in a video released by the Ukranian Foreign Ministry. 

During the commission hearing, lawmakers heard expert testimony into Ukraine and Russia from high-profile witnesses. Experts told lawmakers unity seen surrounding the conflict may have surprised Putin. 

Former ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor explained it can't be assumed Putin’s bluffing since he’s invaded before, but that he’s looking at unity and the possibility of severe sanctions. Taylor said actions have appeared to deter an invasion for now, but reiterated strong steps until Putin withdraws military force.

Former U.S. National Security Council official Fiona Hill told lawmakers Russia may feel emboldened by developments in Eurasia, and look at the U.S.' role in addressing upheavals.

 

"We should continue to make clear to Moscow we are open to negotiation as Chairman Cardin has said … but not under the current coercive circumstances," said Hill. "We need to reframe this crisis for what it is as the administration has just done in the United Nations. This Is not a proxy conflict, this is not aggression by the United States or NATO, this is not a righteous effort to counter some great historic wrong as President Putin says. This is an act of post-colonial revisionism."

On the Hill, the move to send troops to Europe drew praise, as well as a split reaction between high-profile Republicans. 

Senator Lindsey Graham said he completely supports the decision, while Senator Josh Hawley called it a mistake, pushing for a focus on China instead. Senator Mitch McConnell praised it, but also called for more assistance to Ukraine and sanctions now. 

"Yesterday, I was glad to hear that U.S. forces are finally moving to reinforce our Eastern Flank allies. I urged President Biden to take this step nearly two months ago. I hope this belated action will lead other NATO allies to follow suit," McConnell said.

This story was originally published by Haley Bull of Newsy.