Inflation is at a 40-year high, and Americans are feeling it.A gallon of gas costs about double what it cost in January 2021. Home prices were up a whopping 19.8% year-over-year in February. And, in March, groceries cost 10% more than they did a year earlier.Thankfully some analysts think that the burden could soon ease, and that we've reached an inflationary top.This week, the Federal Reserve will meet and likely announce plans to raise interest rates, a tool used to combat rampant inflation. However, investors fear that accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes could drag the economy into recession.Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, thinks it's likely that inflation has already reached a peak on its own, and that the Fed could start to pull back on interest rates by the second half of the year.The core personal consumption expenditures index, which the Federal Reserve closely watches to measure the price of goods and services, grew by 5.2% in March, excluding food and energy prices, coming in below economists' expectations and falling on a monthly basis for the first time since October 2020. Detrick points to three key economic indicators for that belief: a drop in used car prices, a lack of "sticky" inflation, and a relative easing in supply chain chaos (though China's COVID-related shutdowns could put an end to that).The chip shortage caused by supply chain kinks and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has made getting a new car very difficult, and the prices of used cars and trucks have correspondingly soared. In February, the price of a used car was up about 45% year-over-year, according to the Manheim Used Car Value Index. But it has since come down to about 25%. Two months of declines show that the prices of used cars, which make up 4% of the consumer price index, could finally be reverting back to pre-pandemic levels.The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta breaks inflation into two categories: sticky and flexible. Sticky inflation is a basket of goods that tends to change more slowly and permanently in price, things like the cost of education, public transportation and motor vehicle insurance. Flexible inflation includes items that move up and down in cost more quickly: gas, clothing, milk and cheese.During the stagflation of the 1970s, both sticky and flexible inflation grew. But so far sticky inflation has remained relatively flat compared with flexible inflation, a good sign that this could still be temporary.Of course, it could take some time for sticky inflation to play catch up, but Detrick says he's optimistic. Flexible inflation is like a rubber band, he said, you can stretch it pretty far and it will still snap back.And though shutdowns in China could hurt the global supply chain, it does appear that problems are easing -- at least for now. If businesses can easily obtain more supplies, the prices of materials go down and consumers won't be charged as much for goods and services, said Detrick.Shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles, New York and Rotterdam are down 28% on average from the peak last year, according to LPL Financial's data. Schedule reliability for container ships is also continuing to improve, according to new data from analytics firm Sea-Intelligence. March also marked the third consecutive month of declines in average delays for container ships.The move lower in inflation could be sudden as a result, especially for durable goods, said Detrick. Still, he warned, it's hard to tell if we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel — or an oncoming train.

The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation-related adjective used to be transitory, as in: Inflation is transitory and price increases should be temporary.

That is no longer the case. inflation rates have been increasing sharply since August 2021 and have been out of the normal 2%-to-4% range for a full year. The Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% for the year ending in March, a rate that hadn't been seen since December of 1981.

So the central bank has broken up with "transitory" and set its eyes on a new inflation-modifying term: entrenched.

"It's our job to make sure that inflation of that unpleasant high nature doesn't get entrenched in the economy," said Fed Chair Jerome Powell last Wednesday, just after he announced a half-point interest rate hike to combat inflation.

It's unclear what exactly entrenched inflation looks like or how we'll know if we've reached it. The Fed has given very little guidance in general on how long they predict it will take for their interest hikes to lower inflation. "It's a very difficult environment to try to give forward guidance 60, 90 days in advance," said Powell last week. "There are just so many things that can happen in the economy and around the world."

There's nothing investors hate more than uncertainty and as increasing rates pummel U.S. markets, they want more guidance. Americans, who have been hard-hit by rising gas and food prices also want to know when they can finally feel some relief, especially if the Fed's rate hikes risk dragging the economy into a recession.

Looking back: Looking to the past could offer some insight: Although prices have been relatively stable over the past four decades, large swings were not uncommon before the early 1980s.

History (and Fed data) show that the driver of inflation is important in predicting when rates will finally decrease: Prices grew at very rapid rates during World War I and World War II as a result of war-time constraints, but fell again when peacetime resumed.

In the 1970s, the U.S. experienced its longest stretch of heightened inflation. President Richard Nixon removed the dollar from the gold standard and two surges in oil prices pushed inflation rates to 12.3% by late 1974. The Fed began practicing "stop-go" monetary policy, raising benchmark rates as high as 16% and then quickly dropped them again, leading to a cycle in which increased interest rates weren't sustained for long enough to end inflation or increase growth.

By the late 1970s, Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker took over and ended that policy. He raised rates and kept them high until inflation came down, throwing the U.S. into recession (its second of the decade) but finally permanently lowering inflation rates, where they remained for the next 40 years.

"I have tremendous admiration for [Volcker]," said Powell last week, when asked about his policy changes. "He had the courage to do what he thought was the right thing."

Looking ahead: So will it take nearly 20 years and two recessions to get us back to normal? Powell certainly doesn't think so. The economy is strong and the unemployment data looks nothing like it did in the 1970s, Powell said. Many believe that we've already reached an inflationary peak and numbers are beginning to flatten.

Analysts often speak of the fears of 1970s stagflation and compare our current situations, but today's inflation is caused by a mixture of global crisis, supply chain disruptions and growth in consumer demand after COVID-lockdowns shut down the economy.

"The inflationary period after World War II is likely a better comparison for the current economic situation than the 1970s and suggests that inflation could quickly decline once supply chains are fully online and pent-up demand levels off," wrote the White House Council of Economic Advisers in a recent white paper.

Still, as growth slows and markets drop, the two S phrases — stagflation and sticky inflation — get thrown around with increasing frequency.

Some investors think the answer is in the middle.

"We expect U.S. inflation to slow over the next two years, but the progress will be very uneven," wrote Bank Of America analysts in a recent not. "There is tentative evidence of an easing of supply chain challenges and we expect 'two steps forward, one step back' process in the next year." But this won't be a decade-long struggle, they predict. Prices should begin to ease by 2023.

Andrew White brings his four-legged friends Oliver and Amore to his neighborhood Petco in San Diego for a little take out. 

He's brought the pair to a kibble re-fill station that allows owners to use their own containers. 

"Less waste and it's more affordable for everyone," he said of the arrangement.  

Like many things these days, inflation has hit the price of owning a pet. A report on petfoodindustry.com finds the cost of feeding household animals was up about 6% in March over last year.  

The overall pet category saw a 7.5% increase compared to March of 2021. 

The pet food maker Canidae says its kibble dispenser is one way to save money. Four pounds from a station like the one White uses is $9 cheaper than buying it in a bag. 

"It costs a lot of money to fill my gas tank, so if I can save a few bucks on items like this it's very helpful," he said. 

The American Pet Products Association says a record $123.6 billion was spent in the U.S. last year on pets.  

A pandemic-related ownership surge means 70% of American households now include a pet of some kind. 

In Kansas City, the KC Pet Project is seeing animals surrendered due to financial burdens. That includes rising rents that are squeezing budgets or making it hard to find new places to live that will accept pets. 

"It has just been relentless with the amount of pets coming in through our doors," said KC Pet Project Chief Communications Officer Tori Fugate. "People are calling us every week saying, 'I don't want to give up my animal, but I can't find a place to live with them.'"

One big cost is vet care. The KC Pet Project gave out more than $96,000 last year to help owners with medical bills.  

The Pet Products Association says owners spent about $34.3 billion on medical care for their animals in 2021, which is the second-highest annual expense after food. 

"We found that some practices are charging four, even five times more than their nearby competitors, right? For the exact same procedures. You know, neutering a cat and a dog, lab analysis, teeth cleaning, these types of procedures, five times as much," said Consumers' Checkbook Executive Editor Kevin Brasler. 

Recent findings from Consumers Checkbook showed costs varied widely from veterinarian to veterinarian in seven cities they sampled. So they say if you want to save money, do some checking first.

"If you know that your pets are going to need certain procedures, you can call around and get prices pretty easily," Brasler continued. "You could call around and get prices for teeth clean, for example, it's a snap. I mean, we found no problems doing that."

In Florida, the Tampa Humane Society has expanded its animal pantry so folks can get free food for their dogs and cats. So far, they've given out more than 130,000 pounds of animal food. 

"Hopefully things will get better," said Sherry Silk, CEO of The Humane Society of Tampa Bay. "It's got to get better because the animals really need us."

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SOUTHFIELD, Mich. (WXYZ) — AAA said the average price of a gallon of regular gas hit $4.58 on Thursday, setting a new record high in the U.S. Could prices be headed even higher to more than $6 a gallon? JP Morgan analysts think so.

JP Morgan analysts are warning as global demand for oil surges due to the war in Ukraine, oil companies in the U.S. are selling more gas to other countries.

“Typically, refiners produce more gasoline ahead of the summer road-trip season, building up inventories. But this year, since mid-April, U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen counter seasonally and today sit at the lowest seasonal levels since 2019,” said the JP Morgan Global Commodities Oil Flashnote, published this week.

“If exports persist at this elevated pace and refinery runs — already near the top of the range for reasonable utilization rates — fall within our expectations, gasoline inventories could continue to draw to levels well below 2008 lows and retail gasoline prices could climb to $6/gal or even higher,” the report warned.

Three economics experts weighed in on the report and offered varied opinions.

University of Michigan Economic Forecaster Gabriel Ehrlich is optimistic that prices will not go that high.

“That kind of prediction gets a lot of attention. My prediction is we won’t get that high this summer,” said Ehrlich.

University of Central Florida Economic forecaster Sean Snaith is less optimistic.

“I think $5 is likely and $6 is not out of the question,” said Snaith.

“It is tough to know what to expect,” said Nicholas Juhle, Greenleaf Trust Chief Investment Officer. “It is important to understand that crude oil prices account for about 60% of the cost of a gallon of gas you buy at the pump.”

So what drives crude oil prices? Economists say it is about global supply and demand. There are many unknowns that could impact supply and demand in the coming months.

One of those unknowns is war. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took a lot of supply out of the market.

“We don’t know how the war is going to unfold. Is it going to be prolonged? Will it end soon? Will Russia escalate the war? Certainly, the risks surrounding that are a big part of why prices are so high right now and why there is a risk they could go even higher,” said Ehrlich.

The International Energy Agency says Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer behind the United States and Saudi Arabia. Before the invasion, it was the second-largest crude oil exporter in the world, behind Saudi Arabia.

“If we find ourselves not only in a war but in World War III, with additional participants, additional sanctions go on, the entire European Union bans energy from Russia. You kind of go down a list of how bad it could get,” said Juhle.

Another unknown is just how much an increase in gas prices will decrease demand and increase supply. So far domestic oil companies and OPEC have not ramped up production.

“Two of the swing producers we would typically expect to make up that supply are not responding in a big way right now. OPEC has been very reluctant to increase supply quickly. And normally we would look to them to increase oil supply. And then in the United States shale oil producers have been reluctant to expand drilling activity,” said Ehrlich. “So, one of the reasons it is tough to predict what is going to happen with prices is we haven’t seen the suppliers react to the high prices we already have.”

Ehrlich says the reason is that oil producers have been recently “burned” by a roller coaster of pricing levels. Oil prices plummeted during the pandemic. The higher prices right now are resulting in high profits. Expanding drilling would require investment.

Snaith says the U.S. and other nations have sent a message that fossil fuel is not a long-term solution, given the concerns about climate change. He says this affects confidence in the oil market’s value as companies consider investing to increase supply.

“The harsh rhetoric and some of these policy actions of the Biden administration have some of these drillers hesitant,” said Snaith.

Another unknown is the weather. Will hurricane season be bad?

“If we were to have a massive hurricane down on the gulf coast, which could take our oil platforms and refineries offline, both of those things would have an upward effect on gas prices at the pumps,” said Juhle.

This article was written by Kim Russell for WXYZ.

SALINA, Kan. — Joe Kejr knows wheat.

"Not a real big one. Sometimes, you can see those in Kansas up to 20," said Kejr.

He's been farming it for quite a while.

"I graduated high school in '77 and kind of been farming since. It's kind of hard to believe how many years that's been, " he said.

Quite a while. You could say he knows a little bit about farming, especially wheat. The recent issues with the supply chain can keep him up at night.

I asked him which supply chain issue is most worrisome to him right now.

"Well, that probably changes by the hour, actually," he said.

Supply chain issues have been wreaking havoc on the farming industry for months, if not longer.

"It might be hard to get some of the fertilizers or parts that we need or even a tire that goes out on our air seater. You don't know if you're going to be able to get it," said Kejr.

But there could be an even bigger cloud hanging over the global supply of wheat – and other foods.

"You have 19-20% of the world's population with three times the amount of food that they need," said Jack Buffington.

Buffington is a supply chain economics professor at the University of Denver, and he's talking about China.

From this year's crop, China is expected to have 60% of the world's rice reserves, 51% of wheat, and 69% of corn. That's a lot of food.

"The food market is a global market, and prices are based on global markets, and for us, it translates into higher prices,"

The UN food price tracker reached an all-time high of 159.7 in March and dropped to just 158.5 in April, 30% higher than it was this time last year. That resulted in 5% inflation on a loaf of bread in 2022 in the US.

That's tough for working Americans trying to put food on the table. It's tough for Joe too. He doesn't have a lot of say about the price of wheat.

"We farm so we can help feed the world. You know, we care about people," Kejr said.

E85 is a type of gasoline that is priced significantly lower. In some states, including Kansas and Missouri, you can get it as cheap as $2.67 a gallon.

E85 is 85% ethanol while most other types of gasoline are E10 or 10% ethanol.

Before rushing to the nearest E85 station, mechanics said drivers need to make sure their vehicles can take E85 gas.

At a gas station near Kansas City, several drivers were filling up with the corn-based gasoline.

"We didn't use it for the longest time but once things really started skyrocketing, it's a no-brainer," said Derek Elliott as he filled up his Ford F-150 with E85 gas.

Elliott said he switched over from regular gas about three months ago and said the savings have made a huge difference.

"I'm probably going to put in the ballpark of 20 some odd gallons. You can do that math," Elliott said. "That's $25, $30 every time."

Sister station KMBC talked with mechanics who said the savings might not be that noticeable because E85 won't deliver the same fuel mileage as regular gas.

"Anything you'd save at the pump, you're going to lose driving your car," said John Schupp, of Sci-Tech Automotive.

They also have a warning for drivers who believe they might save a few bucks by using E85 in a car that's not rated for it.

"You'll probably have a tow truck taking it to the shop because, after about two tanks of E85, a car that's not equipped for it probably won't run," Schupp said.

A yellow gas cap is a way to tell if your vehicle can take E85 to prevent a mechanic's bill.

The ethanol Renewable Fuel Association said it is seeing interest explode not only in people filling up with the type of fuel but from stations that will offer it.

"Let's be honest, everybody is looking for another option at the pump and if they have the right vehicle, this fuel provides all the incentive that they need," said Robert White, VP of industry relations for the association.

He said while ethanol does get lower fuel economy, the price difference is so large right now in many parts of the country it will still save most drivers money in the long run.

"If you translate down and calculate down to the dollars per mile E85 will be way ahead of gasoline today," White said.

He also said there's a rising interest nationwide in the fuel and in some parts of the country ethanol will double or triple in growth this year alone.

"We're seeing drastic increases not only in the consumption of E85 at these E85 stations, but also in the interest of retailers wanting to offer the product," White said.

Back at the gas pump near Kansas City, Elliott said he hasn't noticed a big change in his fuel economy but he does see a big change in his bank account with using E85.

"A lot of people have asked me about it because we use it: What does it do to gas mileage?" he said "I just know what it does for me. When I finish fueling up, there's a massive difference."

FRANKLIN, Tenn — Gas prices continue to rise and it's having an impact on those who use their car to help those in need.

The Mid-Cumberland Meals-on-Wheels in Tennessee is experiencing this firsthand. Staff say they already had a volunteer quit because of the rising costs.

Around 10 a.m., volunteers start trickling in to grab the food orders for their routes in Franklin.

Many volunteers like Gail Stark help serve over 300,000 meals annually from 17 meal sites in the region.

"I retired probably 12 years ago, and I thought 'you know I really need to do something to help other people, I feel so blessed with what I have been, how can I give back?' and so I signed up."

Starck has been helping for two years now and calls it one of the most rewarding things that she has ever done in her life.

She helps serve more than 11 million meals to seniors in Middle Tennessee.

Staff say not only is it important these seniors get a nutritious meal but meet people as well.

"It’s very important to our clients here in the area to get a meal because sometimes it is the only interaction that they have with a volunteer or with someone throughout the day," said site manager, Lindsey Burbank.

But with the gas prices climbing, it's driving away the help this organization says it desperately needs.

"I’ve recently just lost a volunteer that can’t deliver right now. She said she’s going to come back as soon as the gas prices go down," Burbank said. "All of our counties especially the ones that go out and the rural areas really do have a hard time when you’re delivering meals miles apart from each other. It’s the first thing that goes, it’s not in their budget."

Mid-Cumberland Meals-on-Wheels is hoping the prices at pump don't continue to turn good help away.

"Gas prices haven't really affected me, I come from Thompson station. So it probably is only a gallon of gas that I use. I know out in some of the rural areas, you know, the folks have to drive a little bit further and use a little bit more but even if gas went up to $20 a gallon, I would still do this because that's how rewarding it is to me," said Starck.

The staff is hopeful they can find more volunteers like Starck.

This story was first reported by Kelsey Gibbs at WTVF in Nashville, Tenn.

Gas prices may be skyrocketing, but Americans still love their RVs despite the fact that they often get 10 mpg — or less.

RV popularity boomed during the pandemic as travelers looked for safe ways to travel while maintaining social distance. Americans continue to turn to RVs even as they've grown increasingly comfortable flying and staying in hotels.

RV production in North America hit an all-time high in 2021, with more than 600,000 vehicles produced, according to RV Industry Association spokeswoman Monika Geraci. The association expects 2022 will be its second-best year of production ever. RVs are especially popular in the South and West.

Related video above: President Joe Biden blames oil companies for high gas prices

Thor Industries, which owns popular RV brands Airstream and Jayco, said this month that its sales were up 34.6% in the latest three months, compared with the same period last year. Thor Industries says it still has a backlog of RV orders worth $13.88 billion.

RV experts say consumers are adjusting to high gas prices by taking shorter trips.

"If you live in Phoenix and were thinking of Yosemite in California, you might do the Grand Canyon instead," said Randall Smalley, who leads marketing and business development at Cruise America, which rents RVs.

Dane Lee and his wife Jenna sold their Dallas home in 2020 and bought an RV as their jobs became remote during the pandemic.

Video above: Rossen Reports: Save 40 cents per gallon with this free gas app

They've crossed the country twice in their RV, but will be staying closer to family in Birmingham, Alabama this year. Lee said their 150-gallon diesel tank can cost close to $900 to fill from empty. But they don't plan to go back to a traditional house.

"We had the house in the suburbs with a pool and a fence and that stuff. It got a little monotonous going to the office and going back home," Lee said. "The flexibility of having a new view every week is awesome. We've found where we want to be."

Jon Gray, CEO of RV Share, an online marketplace for renting RVs, told CNN Business that customers' average trip in May was slightly less than 350 miles, 9% shorter than in May of last year.

RV Share will be giving away $500,000 in gift cards to customers this year to compensate for increased gas prices on trips. Even with the high gas prices, last week RV Share had its biggest day of bookings this year, Gray said.

Jennifer Young, co-founder of the RV marketplace Outdoorsy, said that "near-cations" are a big trend, as many people stay within 100 miles of home. Young said the average nightly cost of an Outdoorsy rental has increased $5 from last year. Outdoorsy's rentals for the 4th of July are up 4% from last year, Young said.

The increased fuel costs of RVs may be more acceptable to travelers due to inflation across the economy, including more expensive airfare. RV costs may not look as daunting when compared to alternatives. RV travelers often bring their own food and cook, helping to manage costs. Many RV travelers drive exclusively on the first and last day of the trip and leave the RV parked the rest of the trip.

"RVs are not gas-powered vacations," Young said. "They look like they are because they have a steering wheel and four wheels."

RV experts say a growing industry trend is having an RV delivered to an RV site for a vacationing family to use.

Gray, the RV Share CEO, said 20% of his rentals involve the RV's owner driving the vehicle to a campground or destination and leaving it there for the renters. That way travelers can drive their own fuel-efficient vehicle to the RV's location. Then they can enjoy the benefits of vacationing in an RV — which can feel like having a hotel room whose door opens to some of the country's most beautiful places, like national parks — without ever having to fuel up the vehicle to drive it long distances. RV Share started offering the service early in the pandemic.

WAXAHACHIE, Tx. — There is a steady race against the clock for Steve Patman and his workers as they work to get a field of hay harvested before sweltering Texas temperatures become too much to work in.

Patman's great-grandfather first started farming the fields in Waxahachie, Texas, after World War I. But in all his 65 years, this lifelong Texan cannot recall ever seeing things so dry.

"See how the bottom leaves are all dried up, you're losing hay," Patman said kneeling down in the middle of a recently harvested hay field.

It's been more than a month since any kind of considerable rain has fallen on this part of Texas. Irrigating the fields is far too expensive for most farmers. So starved for moisture, crops are dying, forcing Patman to harvest both his hay and corn weeks early.

"It makes me debate whether I need to keep going or stop," Patman said.

At the end of the day, farmers like Patman are producing far less than they had hoped. Just to keep up with rising costs, he recently had to take out a $500,000 loan from the bank.

"I've been farming on the same money since I started. This year kicked us in the butt. You're never getting ahead. It's getting too hard I'm getting too old now," Patman added.

Farmers across the country are in extreme or exceptional droughts right now. They are squeezed between poor growing conditions and inflation costs driving up everything from fertilizer to tractor parts.

"It's terrible and it's not just me I've got farmer friends all over the United States and they're all in the same boat we're in," he said.

Ginger Mulkey managed Boyce Feed and Grain in the center of Waxahachie. She knows how hard her neighbors are working to keep Americans fed. But with each new shipment of feed and grain that comes in, she's forced to raise prices.

"At the end of the day, all I do is adjust pricing. If I'm not staying on top of pricing you're giving it away," she remarked.

ROCKVILLE, Md. — It’s what you don’t see on the shelves in this warehouse that gets Dana Marlowe fired up.

“I could do a dance on the shelf; it's so vacant,” she said.

Marlowe is founder and executive director of the nonprofit I Support The Girls.

“We are a nonprofit that focuses on providing basic items around dignity, specifically menstrual hygiene products,” she explained.

The nonprofit distributes those products to homeless and domestic violence shelters. During normal times, the warehouse at their Rockville, Maryland, headquarters would be stocked to the rafters.

These are not normal times.

“The shelves where tampons used to be are now empty,” Marlowe said. “And I think tampons are just one of those unique items that have been economically hit hard because of supply chain issues.”

Since the start of the pandemic in 2020, the words “supply chain issues” have become shorthand for “not available.” However, when someone needs period products, “not available” is not an option.

That’s where I Support The Girls usually comes in to help, but lately, that’s become increasingly difficult.

“We've had a couple hiccups with the supply chain, whether we were trying to receive products that were being donated from manufacturers from overseas or more recently with tampons,” she said.

Now, along with the supply chain, there is another pressure: inflation.

“We saw some prices just in the last few weeks where a typical box of standard, your over-the-counter pharmacy tampons, going for $50, $60, $70,” Marlowe said. “These tampons are not made of gold. These are not tampons that are going to suddenly do your laundry. They're just inflated at such an egregious rate.”

Since 2015, the more than 50 chapters around the country of I Support The Girls donated 19 million products to more than 3,600 social services agencies.

This year is different, though. Donations of period products are down 50% compared to this time last year and down 67% from 2020.

“If there's less being given to us, we can only donate what we receive,” Marlowe said.

Even smaller nonprofits are getting hit hard, too.

“This will last us, most likely, less than a month,” said John Voorhees, with Manna Ministry in Virginia, as he motioned to a mostly empty shelf. “We’re trying to help these women out for 40 days, so the women out there can see there really is not that much there.”

Back at the I Support The Girls warehouse, Dana Marlowe is hoping more donations come in soon, especially as they face back-to-school time and students in need.

“Particularly girls in middle school and high school can continue to get their education,” she said, “and not miss math class or science because they have their period.”

WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation raging near its highest level in four decades, Congress is poised to approve President Joe Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act. Its title raises a tantalizing question: Will the measure actually tame the price spikes that have inflicted hardships on American households?

Economic analyses of the proposal suggest that the answer is likely no — not anytime soon, anyway.

The legislation, which is headed for final approval Friday in the House and will then be signed into law, won't directly address some of the main drivers of surging prices — from gas and food to rents and restaurant meals.

Still, the bill could save money for some Americans by lessening the cost of prescription drugs for the elderly, extending health insurance subsidies and reducing energy prices. It would also modestly cut the government's budget deficit, which might slightly lower inflation by the end of this decade.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded last week that the changes would have a "negligible" impact on inflation this year and next. And the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model concluded that, over the next decade, "the impact on inflation is statistically indistinguishable from zero."

Such forecasts also undercut the arguments that some Republicans, such as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy have made, that the bill would "cause inflation," as McCarthy said in a speech on the House floor last month.

Biden himself, in speaking of the legislation's effect on inflation, has cautiously referred to potentially lower prices in individual categories rather than to lower inflation as a whole. This week, the president said the bill would "bring down the cost of prescription drugs, health insurance premiums and energy costs."

At the same time, the White House has trumpeted a letter signed by more than 120 economists, including several Novel Prize winners and former Treasury secretaries, that asserts that the bill's reduction in the government's budget deficit — by an estimated $300 billion over the next decade, according to the CBO — would put "downward pressure on inflation."

In theory, lower deficits can reduce inflation. That's because lower government spending or higher taxes, which help shrink the deficit, reduce demand in the economy, thereby easing pressure on companies to raise prices.

Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who served as a top economic adviser in the Obama administration, wrote in an opinion column for The Wall Street Journal: "Deficit reduction is almost always inflation-reducing."

Yet Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who was a top economic adviser to President George W. Bush and later a director of the CBO, noted that the lower deficits won't kick in until five years from now and won't be very large over the next decade considering the size of the economy.

"$30 billion a year in a $21 trillion economy isn't going to move the needle," Holtz-Eakin said, referring to the estimated amount of deficit reduction spread over 10 years.

He also noted that Congress has recently passed other legislation to subsidize semiconductor production in the U.S. and expand veterans' health care, and suggested that those laws will spend more than the Inflation Reduction Act will save.

In addition, Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said the bill's health care subsidies could send inflation up. The legislation would spend $70 billion over a decade to extend tax credits to help 13 million Americans pay for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act.

Those subsidies would free up money for recipients to spend elsewhere, potentially increasing inflation, although Smetters said he thought the effect would likely be very small.

While the bill could have the benefit of increasing the savings of millions of households on pharmaceutical and energy costs, it's unlikely to have much effect on overall inflation. Prescription drugs account for only 1% of the spending in the U.S. consumer price index; spending on electricity and natural gas makes up just 3.6%.

Starting in 2025, the act will cap the amount Medicare recipients would pay for their prescription drugs at $2,000 a year. It will authorize Medicare to negotiate the cost of some high-priced pharmaceuticals — a long-sought goal that President Donald Trump had also floated. It would also limit Medicare recipients' out-of-pocket costs for insulin at $35 a month. Insulin prescriptions averaged $54 in 2020, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

"This is a historic change," said Leigh Purvis, director of health care costs at the AARP Public Policy Institute. "This is allowing Medicare to protect beneficiaries from high drug prices in a way that was not there before."

A study by Kaiser found that in 2019, 1.2 million Medicare recipients spent an average of $3,216 on drug prescriptions. Purvis said recipients who use the most expensive drugs can spend as much as $10,000 or $15,000 a year.

The legislation authorizes Medicare to negotiate prices of 10 expensive pharmaceuticals, starting next year, though the results won't take effect until 2026. Up to 60 drugs could be subject to negotiation by 2029.

Holtz-Eakin argued that while the provision may lower the cost of some Medicare drugs, it would discourage the development of new drugs or reduce new venture capital investment in start-up pharmaceutical companies.

The Inflation Reduction Act's energy provisions could also create savings, though the amounts are likely to be much smaller.

The bill will provide a $7,500 tax credit for new purchases of electric vehicles, though most EVs won't qualify because the legislation requires them to include batteries with U.S. materials.

And the legislation also significantly expands a tax credit for homeowners who invest in energy-efficient equipment, from a one-time $500 credit to $1,200 that a homeowner could claim each year. Vincent Barnes, senior vice president for policy at the Alliance to Save Energy, said this would allow homeowners to make new energy-efficient investments over several years.

But for all Americans, including those who aren't homeowners, the impact will likely be limited. The Rhodium Group estimates that by 2030 the bill's provisions will save households an average of up to $112 a year as gas and electricity becomes cheaper as more Americans drive EVs and houses become more energy- efficient.

The federal government is making it easier for farmers to grow food as the nation faces record inflation and supply chain issues.

The USDA is allowing farmers to insure a second crop planted and harvested on the same piece of land — a practice known as double or relay cropping.

One farmer in Iowa started planting a second crop back in 2016.

Until this week, it was illegal to insure his second crop — soybeans.

"That's why we have these meetings to help other farms understand what we're doing. That's why we push so hard with the insurance program. I went on my own without insurance. I could handle that, but I know for other farmers to transition they need that crutch," Loran Steinlage said.

The USDA said the goal is to help avoid a food shortage.

Watch the video above for the full story.

PORTLAND, Maine — For almost two decades Dean's Sweets has been serving the locals and visitors of Portland, Maine, alongside the dozens of people who order online.

"My husband Dean and I started this business just about 18 years ago and we started it in our home kitchen," said Kristin Thalheimer Bingham, the co-owner of Dean's Sweets.

All these years later, they are facing the reality of inflation and many businesses like them are heading into a crucial season for business.

Bingham said about 50% of their revenue is made during the holiday season.

"The supply chain has gotten to be more of an issue recently," said Dean Bingham, the co-owner of Dean's Sweets.

"Especially in this last eight months, nine months, 2022 everything has just kind of shot up and skyrocketed," Thalheimer said. "We were taken a little bit unaware by even just a few months ago. To see that sugar has increased 10% to 15% last spring and then it increased again over the summer, same with chocolate."

That's along with other items like cocoa, butter, cardboard, packaging and shipping materials. It's all making them question if it's time to raise their prices.

"I think we're going to take another good look at it as we head into the holiday season," Thalheimer said.

They say it's not something they want to do.

Thalheimer worries a rise in prices could change that and cause people to skip purchasing that chocolate gift.

"I'm as aware as anybody else about inflation and I hate to be one of the contributors but on the other hand if all of my costs are going up I cannot afford to stay in business if I'm not recouping my costs and making a little money for myself," Dean said.

They've tried to ease the pain in other ways.

"For a long time I thought my mantra was, make more sell more and you sort of make up for the increase in price by volume but we're starting to realize that you can't do that," Dean said. "Volume has costs associated with it too because the more that you sell, the more you need to buy and the more help you need."

Buying that treat is attached to a sense of happiness they don't want to see disappear and a moment of magic they hope a rise in cost won't ruin.

"I've always felt that chocolate was one of those things that you may not buy a pound but you can buy one or two pieces and that's going to help you get through some of the stresses of the other difficult times," Dean said.

"We are always conscious of the fact that we want to be a place where people can come and get a little gift for somebody and find something nice for themselves so we want to keep it that way," said Thalheimer.

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — Inflation has hit the holiday season causing many of shoppers to look even harder for a good sale. But this holiday season, experts are urging people to think local more than ever before.

"Big retailers as well as small retailers are recognizing people are worried about inflation,” said Stephan Weiller, a professor of economics at Colorado State University. "The holiday season is pretty important in terms of the economy. As a country, we are supposed to spend over a trillion dollars on holiday sales. That's 5% of the GDP, or 5% of what we produce is actually sold during the Christmas season, which is pretty unbelievable."

With inflation increasing the price of goods by sometimes 8%, many people are turning toward shopping online and in big chain stores.

"That’s what big box stores are doing; they’re discounting deep and often and that's what people are seeing,” Weiller said.

"The big box stores and Targets and Walmarts are really captivating the toy businesses,” said Richard Skorman, the owner of Little Richard’s Toy Store in Colorado Springs. “They used to have two or three aisles of toys, but now they have 15 or 20. So, it's hard for small business owner small toy store owner to compete sometimes. We have to innovate."

Economists are now trying to inform consumers to consider small privately owned toy shops for their holiday spending.

"If you're shopping for example at big chains all of that money goes away from the community, it goes to corporate headquarters,” Weiller said. “Spending locally keeps dollars flowing in that community.”

"So, Christmas is a big part of our sales,” Skorman said. “It could be up to 60% of our sales for the whole year, so it's really important for us."

Skorman has kept his business alive by carrying things big box stores might not actually carry.

"We've been preparing for this for months and months,” Skorman said. “We weren't sure if the supply chain was going to be hurt this year because last year, toys were hanging out on boats from China, so we bought a lot local, and we have a good full stock right now."

Economists say that it's hard for small businesses to compete with big chain prices, but Skorman believes stores like his can get through inflation by investing in their customer service.

"You'll find that people who work in locally-owned stores are really knowledgeable,” Skorman said. “And in some cases, local stores can talk you into something cheaper than what you were going to get so that could be an inflation buster. If you lose your small businesses in a community, you really lose your sense of character, your sense of place and a fair amount of money that would be invested and that community goes away."

The end of the year is a time to celebrate and reflect, but there are issues that made 2022 exhausting for many people. 

Breanna Dietrich, who lives in West Virginia, spent weeks searching for baby formula for her infant daughter when many shelves were bare nationwide. 

“Knowing where we were at, it still breaks my heart every day," she said.

Dietrich started a social media group earlier this year. It allowed people to post pictures of places they were finding the baby formula.

The formula shortage has improved since the middle of the year, but it's not over.

It's estimated roughly 87% of formula is now in stock.

However, nearly a third of adults with newborns at home said in a recent U.S. Census survey they’re still struggling to find what they need. Formula makers expect some shortages to continue until the spring.

Like the difficulty of finding the right baby formula, skyrocketing food prices is not an issue that will end in 2023.

Caterer Jessica Walks First said the ingredients she uses for her business doubled this year.

“They’ve gotten better in some aspects and in some aspects, they are still the same," she said.

Walks First's catering business specializes in Native American food. Her menu requires specific ingredients to be authentic, like wild rice, which she often buys from native growers on reservations.

In the fall, food and shipping costs were so high, she made 500-mile round trips herself, multiple times a month, to pick up the ingredients herself. Now, as 2022 comes to a close, she says she's in a better place.

“I’m not driving as much. I did find a good source for my wild rice where it now gets shipped to my house in 50-pound bags, so I have that going for me, which saves me 3-4 rides a month," Walks First said.

The USDA expects food prices to continue to rise in 2023 but not at the same rate as in 2022.

Walks First and Dietrich both are hopeful as another new year approaches.

“We get a little better back to the old normalcy," Dietrich said.

“I don’t do this as a job," Walk First stated. "This isn’t work for me. This is my passion, and my life dream, and I give it all I got."

WASHINGTON —

The Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates again on Wednesday. But will it be another half-point hike or just a quarter-point increase? And what about the rest of the year?

The Fed's actions beyond this week's meeting will depend primarily on whether inflation is truly slowing. Investors will get another clue when the January jobs report is released on Friday.

Economists predict that 185,000 jobs were added last month, a slowdown from the gain of 223,000 jobs in December and 263,000 in November. A further deceleration in the labor market would likely please the Fed, as it would show that last year's rate hikes are successfully taking some air out of the economy.

The Fed knows it's in a tough situation. Inflation pressures are partly fueled by wage gains for workers. In an environment where the unemployment rate is at a half-century low of 3.5%, employees have been able to command big increases in pay to keep up with rising prices of consumer goods and services.

Along those lines, average hourly earnings, a measure of wages that is also part of the monthly jobs report, are expected to increase 4.3% year-over year. That's down from 4.6% in December and 5.1% in November.

As wage growth cools, so do price increases. The Fed's favorite measure of inflation — the Personal Consumption Price Index or PCE — rose "just" 5% over the past 12 months through last December, compared to a 5.5% annual increase in November.

That is still uncomfortably high, but the trend is moving in the right direction.

The problem for the Fed, though, is that it may need to keep raising interest rates until there is further evidence that the labor market is cooling off enough to push the rate of inflation even lower.

Recession or soft landing?

Several other job market indicators continue to show that the U.S. economy is in no serious danger of a recession just yet. The number of people filing for weekly jobless claims dipped last week to 186,000, a nine-month low. Investors will get the latest weekly initial claims numbers on Thursday.

The market will also be closely watching reports about private-sector job growth from payroll processor ADP and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Department of Labor this week. The last JOLTS report showed that more jobs were available than expected in November.

Still, some expect that wage growth should continue to fall, which should take pressure off the Fed somewhat.

"Wage growth has been on a slowing trajectory, and we suspect that softer wage growth will be a trend in 2023 as jobs available contract," said Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, a wealth management firm, in a report.

Not everyone agrees with that assessment. Organized labor has been winning bigger pay increases lately in the transportation industry. And more workers at tech and retail giants have been unionizing as of late.

"Workers will be loath to relinquish the bargaining power they perceive to have gained over the past year," said Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist at Putnam, in a report.

Vaillancourt also pointed out that many consumers are still flush with cash that they saved up during the early stages of the pandemic. That could mean that inflation isn't going away anytime soon.

And even though the pace of jobs gains may be slowing, it's not as if economists are starting to predict monthly job losses like the U.S. has had in previous recessions.

"Combine a strong labor market with a still substantial reserve of excess savings, and you have all the components in place to keep the Fed up at night," Vaillancourt said.

So as long as hopes for an economic "soft landing" persist, the Fed will have to keep worrying that inflation is too high. That increases the chances the Fed could go too far with rate hikes and ultimately lead to a recession.

As food costs grew by over 10 percent in 2022, many Americans are saying prices are a big reason they’re unable to eat healthily.

According to a survey released Wednesday by the Cleveland Clinic, 46% of those asked say food prices are the biggest barrier to healthy eating. Ranking as the No. 2 reason, 23% said they don’t have the time to cook healthy meals. One in five respondents say they don’t know how to cook healthy meals.

“A heart-healthy diet is the cornerstone of how we lower the risk of cardiovascular disease,” said Dr. Leslie Cho, a cardiologist for Cleveland Clinic. “It’s really sad that in our economic times people feel that eating heart healthy is more expensive.”

Although the cost of fruits and vegetables jumped in 2022, so did pretty much all other types of food. Cakes and cookies increased 17.1% in 2022, while sweets rose about 12 percent. Fresh fruits and vegetables went up 6.4%, according to the government's consumer price index.

Experts say including fresh fruits and vegetables in a diet does not have to be expensive.

“As long as we eat the rainbow of colors in your fruits and vegetables, that’s good for you and your cardiovascular health,” Cho said.

The survey also found that 71% of those polled believe moderate exercise has a great impact on weight than diet. Research shows that exercise and eating a healthy diet are both important factors in health.

“The best exercise that’s been proven over and over again to make people live longer is walking. Walking really is an important part of our health, not just our cardiovascular health but our mental health too,” she said.

Following a year of persistent high inflation, the consumer price index for January 2023 indicated that inflation eased only slightly to start the year.

According to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the 12-month inflation rate dropped by .1% to 6.4%. For the month of January itself, the consumer price index, the top indicator of inflation in the U.S., rose by .5%.

The consumer price index weighs the costs of goods based on their importance. Items like food, shelter and energy tend to be weighed more.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that increasing shelter prices was the biggest culprit to January’s price increases. The price of shelter in the U.S. is up 7.9% in the last year, according to the government’s data.

Inflation has also been particularly high for food items. Food costs have increased 10.1% in the 12-month period ending in January. In January alone, food costs rose by .7%.

Energy costs also are 8.7% higher than a year ago after a 3.1% increase in January.

While essentials have gone up, commodities such as apparel, electronics and appliances have not seen quite the price jumps. These types of items have gone up by 1.4% in the last year.

The new data also indicate wages have failed to keep up with inflation as hourly wages have increased 4.4% in the last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said both rising wages and inflation will cause the Fed to continue raising interest rates. Powell said the Fed’s goal is to get inflation to an annual increase of 2% yearly.

MILWAUKEE —

Inflation is at its highest point in decades, but there may be some hard-to-spot price hikes in the supermarket aisles, disguised from consumers by creative packaging.

Consumer advocate Edgar Dworsky said "shrinkflation," another term for product downsizing or manufacturers putting less product in a package for the same price, is more common during times of inflation.

"It really does come in waves and, unfortunately, we are in the middle of a big wave right now," said Dworsky, founder of ConsumerWorld.org.

"Prices are going up, and I think companies want to do the most to make sure it looks like they're not the ones raising their prices," Milwaukee shopper Sam Krieg observed.

Dworsky highlighted examples of shrinkflation.

"We always used to buy half-a-gallon of orange juice. Then it went down to 59 ounces. Then it went down to 52 ounces," he said.

Consumers are likely to find fewer sheets in a roll of paper towels, less pet food in a can or maybe an ounce less of cereal in a box.

"That little 1-ounce multiplied by tens of millions is big bucks in their pocket, and out of your pocket," Dworsky said.

He said other manufacturers may change the shape of their package.

"There's now an indent on the bottom of the Skippy jar that's, in essence, dead space. Gatorade came in 32-ounce bottles. They're now 28 ounces. Look for the one that kind of has a waistline on it. That's the one that's 4 ounces shorter," Dworsky said.

Sister station WISN found an example of downsizing on a Milwaukee store's shelf.

The older package for a tube of Crest 3D White toothpaste showed it contained 4.1 ounces, while the newer package listed 3.8 ounces.

Selling for the same price, the newer tube contained 7% less toothpaste.

Crest's parent company, Procter & Gamble sent a statement to WISN 12 saying in part, "P&G takes a holistic view of pricing by product category... Our focus is on delivering superior products with the best performance, ultimately delivering value to our consumers."

The best advice for shoppers may be to check the price per ounce or per unit, which is often posted in smaller print on the store shelf.

But even that may be hard to find because not all states require stores to post a unit price.

Nineteen states require some form of unit pricing, WISN reports.

Dworsky said consumers who don't routinely check unit prices may not be aware when a product has been downsized.

"Manufacturers are counting on consumers not noticing," he said.

But is it an attempt to deceive consumers?

"It certainly is a bit of package trickery, to say the least. Does it cross the line to be illegal? No," Dworsky said.

It's just a cleverly disguised hit to your household budget.

Wholesale prices are up nearly 10% over the past year.

The Labor Department released new numbers for January on Tuesday.

Wholesale prices rose 1% from December to January, but 9.7% from January 2021 to January 2022.

Prices for goods increased more than prices for services.

Final demand energy prices rose 2.5% in January.

Food had an increase of 1.6%.

Supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, other pandemic-related issues have made it difficult for manufacturers to meet demand.

This has contributed a sharp increase in consumer prices.

The new numbers come as the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates in March.

Citi economists expect a 50-basis-point hike.

The pinch of inflation is creating a crunch for some businesses across the country and across industries. 

Businesses around the United States face a new challenge in this pandemic: raising the price of the products they sell. 

"The rent's going up, the labor's going up, the food cost is going up," said Pete Boland, the managing partner of The Galley and Mary Margaret's Olde Irish Tavern in St. Petersburg, Florida. 

Inflation, Boland said, is a real problem.

"The $3 tacos aren't $3 tacos anymore. The days of $3 beer are long gone, too," said Boland. 

In his business, he said he's looking at the price of things like to-go boxes, fry oil, chicken breasts. Like others, his operating expenses fluctuate with the market. 

"So we're trying to be creative with things like portion control, making sure we're watching people's hours and labor, making sure that if there's a way to increase price that there's a good perception of value," he said. 

They're not alone.

The PwC Pulse Survey of executive views found more than 60% of business leaders surveyed believed they'd likely have to increase the prices of goods and services this year, and more than two-thirds expected inflation to remain high this year. 

"If you think about the continued supply chain difficulties with imports still sitting in containers in major points in the country and the reality that we are living in one of the lowest inventory-to-sales ratios that we've seen probably since World War II, you realize that this inflation, while we had hoped it would be fleeting, is probably here for at least 18-24 months," said Byron Carlock, Jr., the national leader of PwC's U.S. real estate practice. 

Carlock said the adjustments upwards appear prevalent in most industries. 

"I think the fed is going to continue to show us their strength in moderating inflation," he said.

"I think all efforts will be to contain the inflation and hope that once the supply chain levels out again we will see prices begin to stabilize."

Experts say for many managers, it's the first time they've experienced inflation like this. 

"This is the first rodeo of severe price inflation for many businesses and for many managers," said John Quelch, dean of the Miami Herbert Business School.

"It's important they adjust their prices in sync with the cost input adjustments they're having to bear on raw materials, on wages, so forth."

Quelch's advice is to buy early and buy often.

"Even though the supply chain problems were and are still part of the inflation equation, they are not such a large part of it that once they're fixed inflation is going to go away," he said. 

At The Galley, Boland said the digital menu makes it easier for them to adjust their prices.

Right now, customers will find a $4 increase in the wings since September. But Boland explained they have a loyal following. 

"You know the economy's raging here so people are a lot less price-conscious than they used to be, and they are understanding that the world has changed," he said.

This story was first reported by Haley Bull and Lindsay Tuchman at Newsy.

WASHINGTON — After several bad months of economic reports showing high inflation, President Joe Biden received some welcome economic news at the White House Thursday.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate of 6.9% to close out 2021.

Those numbers represent the fourth quarter of 2021, which encompasses the holiday shopping season. For comparison, the third quarter of last year only saw growth of around 2.3%.

The country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 5.7% in 2021, marking the first time since the mid-1980s that the U.S. GDP has grown that much in a single year.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

White House officials said Thursday's report is proof that the U.S. is recovering well from the COVID-19 recession.

"This GDP growth was spectacular, and what it really reflects is the recovery from the pandemic," said Dr. Cecilia Rouse, the chairwoman of Biden's economic advisers. "We are seeing economic activity pick up."

Of course, a looming issue is the inflation rate, which continues to be at a 40-year high. So, when will the positive economic numbers translate into improved prices at the grocery store?

"Most outside forecasters are expecting that inflation will be about half that it is today by this time next year," Rouse said. "We expect to see over the course of the coming months that price increases will start to moderate, and we will some relief."

President Joe Biden attended the second White House Competition Council meeting on Monday.

Biden established the council in 2021 with an executive order in an effort to lower prices for American consumers.

The council is responsible for monitoring the government's approach to increasing competition in the private sector and reducing the trend of corporate consolidation. Biden believes that will drive down prices for Americans.

The administration is trying to combat inflation. The consumer price index rose 7% in 2021, the largest 12-month gain since June 1982, according to Labor Department.

The council is made up of high-level officials from the Biden administration including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.

The price at the pump and in stores is higher these days. The Consumer Price Index, from the end of 2021, shows inflation rose 7% from December 2020 to December 2021, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“The two most important numbers are the headline number and that came in at 7% for the year 2021, the highest number since the early 80s. And the core inflation, the piece excluding food and energy, came at about 5.5%,” Nikolai Roussanov, a finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said.

In the same year, Americans saw a 49.6% price increase in gas and a 12.5% increase in meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economists say pandemic stimulus money contributed to some of the inflation, but is only partly to blame.

“When you have this tremendous amount of money coming into the economy, it stimulates aggregate demand. So that’s half of the story here. At the same time, the pandemic completely disrupted this incredibly complex and finely tuned machine we call the supply chain,” Connel Fullenkamp, an economics professor at Duke University, said.

Fullenkamp said inflation has been focused on goods rather than services.

“We have seen wages go up in the past year, but inflation has gone up so much it has eaten up all of those gains,” he said.

“Nobody wants to raise prices, so when you see food prices coming up in the supermarket, it is almost surely some function of rising input costs which are being passed on to consumers as minimally as possible,” Ricky Volpe, an associate professor in the Cal Poly San Luis Obispo Agribusiness department, said.

Volpe, who used to conduct food price research for the USDA, said it’s also important to look at the context of the numbers.

“Retail food prices today still remain lower in real terms than where they were a generation or two ago. Food prices have not skyrocketed relative to the U.S. dollar,” Volpe explained. “A lot of the major price increases that we’ve seen in the supermarkets pertain to more value added processed, ready-to-eat foods.”

People may want to consider what food prices are being compared to.

“Gas prices plummeted early in the pandemic. So for that reason, we should caveat some of the gas price inflation numbers saying that prices fell artificially at the start of the pandemic because of low demand,” Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at gas price app GasBuddy, said. “We’ve never seen gas prices plummet so far and then jump so much in the course of a year and a half or so. But of course we’ve never lived through a pandemic and that's what's driving these price differences.”

Americans can expect to spend more of their money as demand and supply level out. Experts say it could take a while, depending on the commodity.

“I see it as lasting until the end of this year before things really start to get back to normal and those shipping costs and supply chain issues start to get really resolved. That's going to keep inflation higher than normal,” Fullenkamp said.

“The spring could be a very busy time, prices could surge, but then we do see some relief towards the end of the year as things slowly normalize back to where we were pre-pandemic in terms of oil production,” De Haan said.