How much money do you plan on spending this holiday season?

A forecast released Thursday by the National Retail Federation expects to see a 6 to 8 percent growth in holiday spending over 2021.

“The overall outlook from those consumer fundamentals are very positive and support what we believe is a fairly good forecast,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist of the National Retail Federation.

Keep in mind this does not include vehicles, gas, or food services. Just retail more broadly. The National Retail Federation said a few factors are at play here.

“Strong job and income growth has been important,” Kleinhenz said. “More jobs means more income, more spending.”

A jobs report released Friday shows the payroll grew by 261,000 in October, according to the Labor Department.

Kleinhenz said consumers also have a good bit of savings to spend from when everyone was saving during the pandemic.

“We can't minimize the importance of the ability for people to tap into their savings in many cases,” he said.

Kleinhenz said credit is also a factor. “Credit availability has supported spending.”

However, this forecast is not adjusted for inflation. The Consumer Price Index has climbed over 8 percent in the past year. If you take out food and energy, that number is around 6.5%. CPI is weighted toward essentials, but things like electronics and clothing aren’t going up at the same rate.

Some forecasts are not so optimistic.

Consulting firm McKinsey & Company said consumer demand has softened and inventory levels are high in an October holiday shopping report. They also mentioned many consumers are eager to spend and splurge.

International shipping company Maersk wrote in their Q3 report released Wednesday:

“With the war in Ukraine, an energy crisis in Europe, high inflation, and a looming global recession there are plenty of dark clouds on the horizon. This weighs on consumer purchasing power which in turn impacts global transportation and logistics demand.”

They did see an increase in revenue in the third quarter. Maersk is the world’s largest container and shipping company.

Whether you decide to save or splurge this year, experts seem to be at odds with spending habits this holiday season.

The Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade is still more than two weeks away, but the preps are long underway.

The parade's balloons were put through the paces at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium on Saturday.

The airborne floats were inflated and prepped before a test flight to gauge real-world conditions.

Some of the balloons are as tall as a five-story building.

This year's balloon lineup includes Bluey from the popular animated series, Sinclair's Dino, Stuart the Minion, and astronaut Snoopy.

The Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade has been a holiday tradition for nearly 100 years.

Whether it’s real or artificial, the cost of your Christmas tree could go up this year.

“Like all areas of agriculture, real Christmas tree reproduction, the costs are up,” said Marsha Gray, the executive director of the Real Christmas Tree Board. The organization represents companies that produce real Christmas trees grown in the U.S., and those that are imported.

Gray said input costs for these companies are up 11 to 20 percent. This includes things like fuel, fertilizer, and labor. The wholesale price of a tree will go up 5 to 15 percent, according to a survey of wholesalers by the Real Christmas Tree Board. That doesn’t necessarily mean that cost will be passed on to the consumer.

“Some of those costs are probably absorbing, but a certain amount of it they are passing on to those retailers who then, in turn, need to decide what retail price they’re going to charge,” she said.

According to a survey by the Real Christmas Tree Board, consumers expect inflation to impact real Christmas tree costs by approximately $4 to $12 per tree compared to last year.

“Prices, of course, to move everything are up, so that's one of those things that we consider an input cost but we’re really not expecting any real supply chain problems,” Gray said.

She explained that supply shouldn’t be an issue this year.

“We do have a tighter supply and have had a tighter supply for about 5 to 7 years. Not a big surprise because it takes us 10 years to produce that tree and turn it around. We can't change on a dime,” she said.

What about artificial trees? Last year, the industry was disrupted by supply chain problems.

“Last year, in 2021, the artificial Christmas tree industry had a really tough time because, with the supply chain delays, still many of us got our product late. At Balsam Hill we had 500 containers of Christmas trees and holiday decor come after Christmas,” said Mac Harman, the founder and CEO of Balsam Hill.

During the last holiday season, stores and companies didn’t have enough goods. Harman said for this year’s supply, companies put in orders for less stock. However, this was all purchased during a time when international cargo freight prices were at a high, which could be reflected in the prices consumers see this season.

Experts are still waiting to see if there will be a shortage of artificial trees this year. For now, stores have the stock they need, but prices could fluctuate, according to Harman.

There are some ways you can save regardless.

“Any time you're looking for an artificial Christmas tree, you want to shop early, especially this year,” said Harman. “What we’re seeing this year is that consumers are shopping later for their artificial Christmas trees and their holiday decor.”

Balsam Hill estimates people keep artificial trees for about 10 years.

The turbulence we’ve seen in pricing and supply is more likely to level out next year. “We expect that prices will come down next year because the supply chain costs are down and also raw material costs are down. But everything that was purchased this year was purchased so long ago, prices are up,” Harman said.

If you are purchasing a real Christmas tree, know specific details about height and species before you go pick one out. “Make sure you measure ahead,” Gray said.

She said most tree sellers have websites where you can see what they have and pricing beforehand.

Millions of families will gather for Thanksgiving. It's a significant shift from the height of the pandemic when families remained isolated out of fear of spreading COVID-19.

The virus has not gone away. However, Americans are more protected than ever due to vaccines and prior infections.

The Centers for Disease Control reports about 289,000 weekly cases of COVID-19. At the same time last year, that number was more than double. Hospitalizations are also down dramatically this year compared to 2021.

Health officials still recommend getting vaccinated or boosted to protect against the virus. In addition, they are warning about the spread of flu and RSV. There is a vaccine to protect against the flu, but there is no vaccine for RSV.

To avoid spreading potentially-dangerous germs, the CDC recommends:

• Cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue or your upper shirt sleeve, not your hands
• Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds
• Avoid close contact, such as kissing, shaking hands, and sharing cups and eating utensils, with others
• Clean frequently touched surfaces such as doorknobs and mobile devices

Germs from other people aren't the only things to worry about on Thanksgiving. The USDA says people should follow basic steps
to protect against foodborne illnesses.

• Clean and sanitize
• Avoid cross-contamination
• Thaw the turkey safely (Never thaw your turkey in hot water or leave it on a countertop.)
• Cook food thoroughly
• Avoid stuffing turkey as it often leads to bacteria growth
• Don’t leave your food sitting out too long (Refrigerate all perishable foods sitting out at room temperature within two hours of being cooked, or one hour if the temperature is 90 F or above.)

A recall of alfalfa sprouts has been expanded to include products sold with best buy dates through Jan. 7, 2023.

Four lots, 4211, 5211, 3212, and 4212, are now included in the recall which was initiated due to possible salmonella contamination.

The original recall included two lots with expiration dates through Dec. 27, 2022. They were sold at grocery stores in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa.

According to health officials in Nebraska, 16 people fell ill after eating the alfalfa sprouts in December.

The Food and Drug Administration warns that salmonella infection can lead to diarrhea, nausea, vomiting and abdominal pain. In rare cases, the infection can become serious and potentially fatal.

Federal officials estimate that over 25,000 people are hospitalized each year from salmonella infections. Around 450 people die from the infection each year.

What's supposed to be the happiest time of year can quickly turn into a stressful flurry of holiday activities and endless shopping lists, even in the best of times.

Many people spread themselves too thin trying to make this time of year perfect, which can lead to burnout. And in a pandemic? It's asking the impossible.

It's not easy to switch gears, but it really doesn't have to be this way. Here's how to relax as the season comes to a close and the new year begins.

Prioritize your tasks

Some people may think they need to do everything to have a happy holiday season, but that isn't the case, said Sarah Clark, a research scientist in the department of pediatrics at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Families should communicate with each other what the most important activities are so they know what traditions can be cut, she said.

"You don't have to do it all, but you can't expect to read everybody's minds," Clark said.

Baking to connect with others

Baking can be a therapeutic activity that brings people together, said baker Eric Pallant, author of "Sourdough Culture: A History of Bread Making From Ancient to Modern Bakers."

His specialty, sourdough bread, takes plenty of love and care for a great loaf. It also allows people to take a break from the hustle and bustle of life and reconnect with each other, he said.

"That you've taken the time to make it and make it with your hands and share it with somebody else, what could be more wonderful?" Pallant said.

Running out of ingredients because of supply chain issues? Try these easy baking hacks to substitute ingredients.

Take a walk

Walking is a great way to reduce anxiety and lower stress, especially outside in nature.

It can also help increase your energy levels, giving you more stamina to complete the tasks on your list or having fun with loved ones.

Other forms of exercise will certainly offer similar health benefits, but walking is a great option for those not accustomed to exercise, said Evan Matthews, associate professor of exercise science and physical education at New Jersey's Montclair State University.

"It is likely a familiar movement, removing the learning curve that occurs with a new form of physical activity and the intimidation factor many feel when starting out," he said.

Put the phone away

Scrolling through hundreds of social media posts is one way people take a break during a busy day, but it actually increases stress, said Vaile Wright, senior director of health care innovation at the American Psychological Association.

"It's probably reflective of individuals that are not establishing boundaries as well as they could be," she said.

Wright recommended blocking out times during the day where you turn your notifications off. If you need someone else to hold you accountable, take a walk with them without any electronics (including a smart watch).

Take a power nap

With all the activities going on, getting enough sleep is often one of the first things that is cut, despite it being one of the most important parts of your health. While adults should get at least seven hours each night, a quick nap might be a holiday solution.

Taking a short afternoon nap can leave you feeling refreshed and ready to take on the rest of the day, according to Dr. Rajkumar Dasgupta, associate professor of clinical medicine at the Keck School of Medicine of USC in Los Angeles.

The nap length should not exceed 20 minutes because anything longer could put your body into a deeper stage of sleep, he said.

If you sleep for longer than that, you could wake up feeling more tired than when you went to bed, which is called sleep inertia, Dasgupta said.

Call a loved one

It's easy to feel out of control when you're overwhelmed and stressed, but a short call to a trusted family or friend can remedy that, according to research published earlier this year in JAMA Psychiatry.

Talking for only 10 minutes on the phone with a loved one can make you feel less lonely, said Maninder "Mini" Kahlon, associate professor of population health and executive director of Factor Health at The University of Texas at Austin's Dell Medical School.

The key is to make sure the person on the other end of the call is an empathic, active listener, she said.

Other people in your life may need a good listener during this time, so reach out to loved ones and be that listener for them, too.

"Prioritize just listening to them in their words and where they prioritize their interests," Kahlon said.

These simple but meaningful activities can go a long way in helping you de-stress, so take some time to incorporate a few of them into your routine.

Sunday marks the start of Kwanzaa and one woman is turning to education to celebrate the special tradition.

It's a seven-day, non-religious holiday observed in the United States. Kwanzaa is meant to honor African Americans' ancestral roots.

"It’s so important to convey this tradition because it’s ancient. It’s not new, it’s old, and it brings us together," Doris Fields, who celebrates Kwanzaa, said.

The tradition often involves symbolic items like a candle holder (Kinara), unity cup (Kikombe cha Umoja), placemat (Mkeka), crops (Mazao), corn (Muhindi) and gifts (Zawadi).

Fields has celebrated the holiday for over 35 years, from paying homage to ancestors to sharing hopes for the new year.

"Usually there are people in their 90s [who attend], and they have so much wisdom," Fields said. "They have so much to offer to us."

While Fields' annual events may look smaller due to the coronavirus pandemic, she said she doesn't stop the opportunity to teach.

On Sunday, her home was a haven for a small group of friends, eager to learn more about the tradition.

"There were people here who had not had Kwanzaa with us before, so it's very nice to be able to share our thoughts," Fields said.

The holiday involves seven principles, represented by candles: unity, self-determination, collective work and responsibility, cooperative economics, purpose, creativity and faith.

"I’ve been celebrating Kwanzaa with my family. probably for the last like 10 or 15 years," Markella Clinton, who also celebrates Kwanzaa, said. "It’s something I look forward to every year. It’s a great family excuse. It’s a great community motivator as well because you don’t just have to be family to be able to come and enjoy."

According to UCHealth, a not-for-profit health care system, Kwanzaa is the fastest-growing holiday in the world.

As popularity increases, Clinton said it's important to ask important questions.

"Don’t be afraid to ask questions. Don’t be afraid to look for information," Clinton said. "Educate yourself, because it’s not a religious holiday. It’s about community engagement and having faith in yourself and having faith in your community."

The celebration lasts until Jan. 1.

You're racing around town, trying to purchase a present for everyone on your list. The past week has been filled with evenings of chauffeuring your family to holiday parties and visits with Santa, leaving everyone exhausted.

The most wonderful time of the year can also be the most stressful.

One in five parents admitted their stress likely negatively impacts their children's enjoyment of the holidays, according to a C.S. Mott Children's Hospital National Poll on Children's Health at University of Michigan Health.

Parents can set unrealistic expectations of how the holiday season should be, said poll author Sarah Clark, a research scientist in the department of pediatrics at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. She is also co-director of the C.S. Mott poll.

Adults often try and fit in many holiday traditions like wearing matching outfits for the Christmas card or attending annual parties, she said, at times so many that it can cause palpable tension and stress in a household.

"Something parents should keep in mind is that adhering to traditions is not always what is most important to the kids and definitely adds to that holiday stress," Clark said.

Clark recommended parents sit down with their children to find out what their expectations are rather than assuming anything.

Parents should ask open-ended questions such as "What did you like best?" or "What do you remember from other holiday seasons?" she said. This will help parents prioritize what is important to the family, which in turn decreases the long to-do lists many households have this time of year, Clark explained.

Another strategy to tackle those long lists is to set aside more time than you think you need to do them and start completing tasks sooner, said CNN contributor John Duffy, clinical psychologist in Chicago and author of "Parenting the New Teen in the Age of Anxiety."

"Parents allow themselves to get into the holiday spirit earlier in the season," Duffy said. "By taking their time, they also regulate their stress levels far better than they would otherwise."

Parents also feel the pressure

One in four parents said they set high expectations for themselves during the holidays, which detracts from their enjoyment of the season too.

Of the 2,020 parents polled in October, one in six said they have high-stress levels during the holidays, with almost twice as many mothers reporting they feel stress than fathers.

Traditional gender roles likely come into play here, with mothers taking on many of the chores and shopping tasks of the season, Clark said.

"Other members of the family might say, 'Who cares if we do holiday cards this year?' But if it's important to the mother, that will get put on her plate and be more stressful to her," she said.

Mothers are more likely to find stress relief when other family members pitch in to help compared to fathers, the poll found. However, it can be difficult for some mothers to accept help because they have a specific vision of how the holidays should go, Clark said.

The key is to accept the help for what it is and let go of some of the expectations, she said.

Fathers, on the other hand, are more likely to throw themselves into work to handle the stress, according to the poll.

"This choice certainly protects men from the many stressors that the holidays can bring, but far too often, they often miss some of the joy of those tasks," Duffy said.

Practicing good mental hygiene

The holidays are a great opportunity that is often overlooked for how to set an example of practicing positive mental health, Clark said.

When parents are feeling stressed, they should articulate it to their children and talk about the action they are going to take to destress, she said.

"It could be, 'We are not going to go to the neighborhood holiday event this year because everybody feels tired. We're just going to get in our pajamas early and stay home and eat popcorn and watch a movie,'" Clark said.

Duffy recommended parents take frequent breaks to watch an episode of their favorite television show, go for a walk or step aside and take a moment to breathe. To avoid holiday burnout, he also suggested parents take a day or two off work to rest and rejuvenate if possible.

Parents should also be aware of how certain holiday activities can trigger their stress because it is likely to affect the entire family unit, Duffy said.

His family often gets invited to many holiday events, but he said he would prefer to go to one or two. To feel energized for the evening holiday activities, he said he takes extra time for himself on those days so he can be fully present.

Keeping a routine

With school out of session for the break, the poll found many parents relax household rules. Around 20% of parents said they relaxed screen time rules, and 19% said they were less strict on bedtimes.

"There's a famous Christmas song that says, 'Mom and Dad can hardly wait for school to start again,' so I think parents need to be realistic that school is the natural scheduler for a lot of families," Clark said.

In lieu of a school schedule, Clark recommended parents create a schedule that prioritizes children getting enough sleep and good nutrition.

With regular sleep, children are less likely to be cranky and have an emotional outburst, which may negatively affect the entire family, Duffy said.

Back in the spring, Pauline Criel and her cousins talked about reuniting for Thanksgiving at her home near Detroit after many painful months of seclusion because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But the virus had a different plan. Michigan is now the nation's hot spot. Hospitals there are teeming with patients, and schools are scaling back in-person learning. A resurgent virus has pushed new infections in the U.S. to 95,000 daily, hospitals in Minnesota, Colorado and Arizona are also under pressure, and health officials are pleading with unvaccinated people not to travel.

Criel's big family feast was put on hold. She is roasting a turkey and whipping together a pistachio fluff salad — an annual tradition — but only for her, her husband and two grown boys.

“I’m going to wear my stretchy pants and eat too much — and no one’s going to care," she said.

Her story reflects the Thanksgiving dilemma that families across America are facing as the gatherings become burdened with the same political and coronavirus debates consuming other arenas.

As they gather for turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes and pie, they are confronted with a list of questions: Can they once again hold big get-togethers? Can they gather at all? Should they invite unvaccinated family members? Should they demand a negative test before a guest is allowed at the dinner table or a spot on the sofa for an afternoon of football?

“I know that it might be overkill that we’re not sharing Thanksgiving here with my cousins, but better be safe than sorry, right?” said Criel, a 58-year-old data administrator for a finance company.

Jocelyn Ragusin, an accountant from Littleton, Colorado, is taking a different approach by prioritizing family time over COVID-19 concerns even as rising case counts and overwhelmed hospitals triggered new mask mandates in the Denver area this week. Ragusin, whose husband contracted the virus and spent four days in the intensive care unit in October 2020, said she is willing to accept a certain level of risk to have a sense of community back.

She said about seven or eight family members would be gathering for the holiday and that the group had not discussed one another's vaccination status beforehand, in part because they “kind of know” already who got the shots and who has had the virus already.

“Getting together is worth it. And getting together and sharing meals, and sharing life," Ragusin said while picking up her mother at the airport in Denver. "We’re just not made to live in isolation.”

The desire to bring family and friends back together for Thanksgiving was evident Wednesday in San Francisco, where the line at one grocery store stretched out the door and around the corner.

Mari Arreola was in line to buy ingredients to make tamales for a meal that will also feature salsa, ham, mashed potatoes and gravy. She sees the gathering of 12 family members this year as a symbol of hope that things are getting better. A year ago, she spent Thanksgiving only with her husband, mom and one daughter.

“We felt really disconnected, and we were all living our lives based on fear, and it looked like an apocalypse scene outside every time you left your house," the San Francisco tech consultant said of last year. “It was really scary, but now things are different.”

Even in better times, Thanksgiving has always been a trying occasion for Nadia Brown, a political science professor at Georgetown University, who loathes the awkward and divisive conversations about politics, race and other hot-button issues. COVID-19 has only made the holiday worse.

She and her husband were hoping to have a big family gathering for Thanksgiving at their home near Silver Spring, Maryland, but the start of a winter surge and lingering concerns about breakthrough cases scuttled those plans. She recently told her father and his family — even if they are vaccinated — that they must be tested to prove they are virus-free or sit out Thanksgiving dinner.

With two of Brown’s three daughters, 2 and 4, unable to get vaccinated, she doesn’t want to take any chances — “because we don’t know the long term impacts of COVID on children,” she explained.

Her decision means her father, Dr. Joseph Brown, won't be coming from his home about three hours away in New Brunswick, New Jersey. The dentist is vaccinated, but said he didn't have time to get tested.

“It hurts me a lot. I want to see my grandkids,” said Joseph Brown, while adding, “I understand her situation. I really do."

Riva Letchinger, who has seen the ravages of the pandemic firsthand as a medical student, set aside her worries to travel from her home in New York City to Washington to resume Thanksgiving festivities with her family. They skipped the gathering last year.

She said she has been reassured that everyone there has been vaccinated and received booster shots, but she is also worried about her own virus status, even though she is fully vaccinated.

“I have this consistent fear of hurting someone in my family or getting them sick because I see so many COVID patients every day,” she said.

Despite her trepidations, Letchinger is looking forward to the annual family ritual, which includes a generous complement of Jewish favorites — like the golumpkis, or stuffed cabbage, that her late aunt Susie used to bring to the Thanksgiving feast.

But the celebration will have somber undertones as well. The family lost two loved ones, both Holocaust survivors, after bouts with COVID-19 last year.

___

Associated Press writer Olga R. Rodriguez contributed to this report from San Francisco.

EMMETT, Idaho — The holiday season is fast approaching, serving as a reminder that Santa's helpers are everywhere.

In Idaho, one young boy is making sure no kid is forgotten by raising money and delivering good cheer by the dozen.

While taking care of his chickens several months ago, 7-year-old Jayden Gabbard decided he wanted to give back to his community.

Jayden is donating eggs from his family farm to help buy toys for other kids.

"He kind of came in and said, 'Hey, I was going to sell my eggs' for his PS5, is what he wanted to save money for, and it kind of turned into, 'Can I give it to Toys for Tots?'" Jayden's dad, Mike Gabbard, said.

Earlier this year, father and son put up banners and spread the word on Facebook.

The project hasn't been without its challenges — including run-ins with predators.

"We had a fox that hit us right at the beginning of June and it wiped out 10 to 12 of our laying stock." Mike Gabbard said.

"I was, felt a little sad when my turkey died and all of my 10 chickens died," Jayden said.

Even with the setback, Jayden didn't slow down — and his cystic fibrosis couldn't slow him down either. The genetic illness damages the lungs and digestive system.

"He takes an ungodly number of pills every day," Jayden's dad said.

Gabbard says he knew even before his son was born that they would face the challenge together. They do that by bonding together on the farm, taking care of the animals, and helping those who need it.

If you would like to help Jayden and Toys for Tots this holiday season, click here.

This story was originally published by Kristen Skovira on Scripps station KIVI in Boise, Idaho.

COVID-19 infections in the U.S. are on the rise.

During a virtual meeting of the White House COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky say the seven-day rolling for COVID-19 infection is 92,000. That's an increase of about 18% from the week prior.

"Infections among the unvaccinated continue to drive this pandemic," Dr. Walenksy said.

The uptick comes as millions of Americans gather for the holidays. Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Walensky reiterated, however, that vaccinated Americans should feel comfortable being around their loved ones this year.

"We certainly want families to gather and we certainly don't want these issues to create wedges in families," Dr. Walensky said.

On Friday, the U.S. expanded eligibility to booster shots for all Americans. Adults 18 and over can now get a Moderna or Pfizer booster shot six months after their first series. Adults can also get the Johnson & Johnson booster two months after receiving their first dose.

"Not only do boosters work, they work even better than the peak dose, the peak response after the second dose," Dr. Fauci said.

Fauci added that they don't have the data yet to show when Americans may need a fourth shot. He said he's hopeful that will remain highly effective for longer than the first two shots.

It takes a lot of work to grow a Christmas tree.

“We are growing a crop that takes seven to 10 years until you can harvest it,” said Beth Bossio at Quarter Pine Tree Farm in Pennsylvania. “Every year, it grows about a foot, so that’s why it does take a long time.”

Quarter Pine Tree Farm is preparing for the busiest part of the year.

“We are a choose and cut tree farm,” Bossio said.

This time of year is spent tagging, cutting and hanging trees. It's not an inexpensive process.

“Prices are going up across the board with everything. We sold our trees two years ago for $60 and we raised them $5 last year, $5 this year so we’re selling our trees for $70 and I think that is comparable to what we’re seeing across the nation,” Bossio said.

“It creates a lot of difficulty in terms of managing the supply chain just because the lead times are long, lots of things can go wrong,” said Prakash Mirchandani, director of the Center for Supply Chain Management at the University of Pittsburgh.

Mirchandani said Christmas trees are a unique product with a short life cycle and a short period of demand. However, they also take a long time to grow, or for artificial trees, to create.

“The supply chains for both of these types of trees has gotten affected,” he said.

The main problem has to do with transportation, Mirchandani added.

“As far as artificial trees are concerned, almost all are imported," Mirchandani said. "Eighty percent come from China.”

“Big retailers haven't been able to bring all their trees in and get them through the ports,” said Mac Harman, CEO of Balsam Hill.

Balsam Hill is an artificial Christmas tree and decoration retailer. Harman is also one of the founders of the American Christmas Tree Association, a nonprofit organization.

He said they’ve had to raise their prices at Balsam Hill around 22 percent on average to help offset transportation costs.

“If you're buying a tree that's been trucked to you or if you're buying an artificial tree there's no question that the prices are going to go up,” he said.

And for states that grow a lot of real trees, getting them to other parts of the U.S. could also be impacted.

“The availability of transportation is certainly going to affect sending the trees from Pennsylvania to other locations,” Mirchandani said.

But farmers across the country are adding to their supply for future years. It’s something Quarter Pine Tree Farm sees firsthand.

Beth Bossio’s stepfather Jim Rockis opened Quarter Pine Tree Farm in the 1990s, but it’s more than just a tree farm. They operate a Christmas tree seed orchard too -- and they are one of a few to do it.

“There’s probably five of us in the country that do it in an industrial way -- that do Christmas trees,” Rockis said. The seedlings that grow from these seeds are distributed to over 300 farms in the Northeast -- and Bossio sees them ramping up their supply.

“In the last four years farmers are planting more and more trees,” she said. “It used to be that we would start taking orders and I’d still be taking orders in February of the following year. We’re already sold out and that's because farmers are ramping up their numbers.”

While Christmas trees may have a higher price tag this season, industry experts say there will be a tree available for people to put gifts under.

“You just need to shop early,” Bossio said. “Yes supply chain issues across the board with a lot of things, but we’re never going to run out of trees. It’s just you might not find the size tree you're looking for. It may be a 7 foot instead of an 8 foot, and that tree is still going to provide the scent and the experience you want no matter what.”

KANSAS CITY, Mo. —

The upcoming Thanksgiving weekend is expected to be the busiest travel holiday in more than two years. Experts, like travel insurance expert Omar Kaywan, say travelers need to plan ahead.

“This particular Thanksgiving weekend we are expecting about 80 to 90% pre-COVID traffic,” Kaywan said.

As things start to get back to normal, the travel expert says it will be some time before airline travel gets there.

“The last couple of weeks we’ve seen thousands of people stranded in airports and not know what to do,” Kaywan said.

He says airlines are doing all they can to handle the return to normal levels, but it’s been a struggle.

“Flights are getting delayed. Airlines are dealing with a lot of different issues, shortage of staff is just one of them. The vaccination mandate, although it has been delayed until January 1, it’s still out there and still a problem for them to be dealing with,” Kaywan said.

He says travel insurance makes more sense now than ever.

“One thing that COVID has been teaching us more so than ever before is that you need to travel with travel insurance,” Kaywan said.

Kaywan says insurance can get you rooms in local hotels if flights are canceled. It can also get refunds you might not get from the airline.

“We also recommend using a flight tracker or Flight Aware so you know exactly where the origin of your flight is,” Kaywan said.

The expert says this year, if possible, travel a day before or a day after the peak on Thanksgiving weekend. He says the most important thing is to stay patient before the flight.

Kaywan says the best bet is just to download a travel insurance app and use it as you need it.

TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) — Christmas came early for a 77-year-old woman in Tucson when a group of high school students made her one wish come true.

Christmas is Nancy Mattern’s favorite holiday.

“It just brings out the part of people that you don’t see the rest of the year,” she said.

She’s been collecting Christmas decorations for 40 years. But ever since she got COVID, she hasn't been able to put them up.

“It put me in this position, it affected my heart and my lungs," Mattern said. "And to be able to do the little things now is really hard.”

Nancy’s daughter, Trina Mattern, has a work injury that also makes it difficult to decorate.

“It's been very heartbreaking to see her so sad during the holidays because we couldn’t put up any decorations for her,” Trina Mattern said.

This year, eight of Santa’s helpers wanted to change that. They’re all a part of University High School’s Dreamcatchers. The group grants wishes for patients in hospice care.

“Working together to create each dream has been a really special experience to me,” said Kristin Jung, a Dreamcatcher at University High School.

The group put up all of Mattern's indoor and outdoor decorations.

“It's what Christmas is about, it's about giving," she said. "And to be able to have my Christmas decorations up is something I thought was over and done with, but these kids, with their big hearts, are making it happen.”

This story was originally reported by Perla Shaheen on kgun9.com.

CINCINNATI — The Greater Cincinnati Holiday Market is back in person this weekend after going virtual last year due to COVID-19.

Venita Allen, who owns skincare business lahVdah, has held a booth for 18 years. She’s one of more than 300 vendors taking part this year. Many are local to the Tri-State.

“I went from one small spot to eight big spots,” she said. “Holiday Market kind of put me on the map as people taking me serious as a stay-at-home small business that ended up opening a brick-and-mortar. I would have never had the customer base had I not got my start here.”

Losing the in-person show last year left its mark on vendors.

“We were all just devastated, because this is a huge, it's a big part of our annual holiday business, which for a retail store, the holidays are like 75% of what you do all year,” said Debra Campbell, co-owner of Fleurish Home.

Vendors said it’s about more than making sales.

“You do form this, like, family relationship with the vendors and the customers that come and it just means so much,” said Sarah Cox, who owns local woodworking company Rustic Grains.

The event is being held at the Duke Energy Convention Center from Nov. 12 through Nov. 14. General admission tickets start at $8 when purchased online. Children (ages 12 and under) can enter for free.

“They build up to this all year long,” said Kelly Scott, assistant show manager. “They're restocked, they're ready to go. But it's one of their biggest events of the year.”

You can buy tickets here.

As St. Vincent de Paul collects coats to hand out this winter, one donor stands above the rest.

For more than a decade, Poul Lemasters has been giving the gift of warmth during the holidays.

This year, he's taking some inspiration from his pandemic hobby to bring in more money and more coats.

From behind a bar, Lemasters is serving up cocktails for coats.

"I'm naïve in many ways and when we first did this and started you know they got more and more and I thought we're going to run out of people to give coats to and you don't because every year somebody needs a new coat," Lemasters said.

Twelve years ago he started a nonprofit collecting coats.

Though it's grown into quite the operation, donating 5,000 new coats to St. Vincent de Paul most recently, when it started it was just a family affair.

"This started off with teaching my kids the art of giving back. We did four coats one year. Four coats. We bought new coats. Took them to St. Vincent de Paul. I wanted my kids to see what that was like," Lemasters said.

And it stuck. He didn't expect the reaction one year later.

"The next year my kids kinda threw it back at me and said, 'Hey are we giving more coats this year?' So do you say no? Of course you say, 'Yeah, and we're going to give a little bit more.' So it's been a great feeling because not only have we grown it within our family, it's grown bigger than us," Lemasters said.

This year he's going old-fashioned with a 24-hour telethon.

You can watch on his Facebook or YouTube.

While he collects cash, he's serving up 50 cocktails from Saturday to Sunday night.

It's a fun twist on what he's found is a real necessity for so many.

"I know the demand. We get calls from schools and local organizations asking can you bring us 50 coats? 100 coats? And I'm humbled to be able to say yes we can," Lemasters said.

Click here to donate.

Can at-home COVID-19 tests make holiday gatherings safer?

Yes, combined with vaccination, home test kits for COVID-19 can add a layer of safety and reassurance by providing on-the-spot results during this second year of pandemic holidays.

"We will be using rapid tests to double check everybody before we gather together," says Dr. Emily Volk, president of the College of American Pathologists, who is planning a holiday meal with six vaccinated family members. "We'll be doing it as they come in the door."

Home kits are not as accurate as the PCR tests done in hospitals and at testing sites, Volk says. But they have the advantage of giving results within minutes instead of days.

Testing kits are available at drugstores without a prescription, and a box with two tests typically costs about $25. Swabs, testing solution and instructions are included.

Adults and teens can test themselves. An adult can test a child as young as 2. How-to videos on product websites can be helpful.

Most tests require swabbing about a half inch inside both nostrils, so it may tickle but doesn't hurt. You will get a positive result if the test detects a viral protein in your sample.

Home tests will miss some infections and in rare cases mistakenly indicate an infection. One popular test misses around 15 out of 100 infections — these are called "false negatives" — and gives a false positive result in about 1 in 100 people who aren't infected.

Test shortages were widely reported during the last COVID-19 surge, but new options have recently hit the market and major manufacturers such as Abbott Laboratories have ramped up production.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offers other tips on ways to enjoy the holidays safely. Vaccination remains the best way to protect against the coronavirus.

Video above: Why some parents skipped The Elf on the Shelf tradition last year

The Elf on the Shelf — a popular elf doll that parents place around their home in the runup to Christmas to "monitor" if the kids are being naughty or nice — has been showing up in many American households in the days after Thanksgiving for more than 15 years now. But this year the elves' journeys to stores and homes have been more complicated.

All kinds of businesses across the globe have been scrambling to try to manage a stalled supply chain that's created a serious backlog of inventory at major ports and a shortage of workers to deliver it. But the problem feels particularly harrowing for companies that make a highly seasonal product with a tight sales window, like The Elf on the Shelf.

The Lumistella Company, the business behind The Elf on the Shelf storybook and doll brand, makes the elves in China, then — ideally, at least — gets them to the warehouses for retailers like Walmart, Target and Amazon weeks in advance of Thanksgiving. Since the product loses its relevancy after Christmas, there's always a ticking clock. Logistics like these are never easy, but this year has brought with it a number of new challenges for the company to work out.

Christa Pitts, co-CEO of The Lumistella Company, told CNN Business recently that she saw the writing on the wall as early as January and didn't want to risk waiting to see if the supply chain issues would ease up — or maybe become worse.

The company typically places production orders with its manufacturer in April. She decided to move orders up by two months into February. As she did that, she was confronted by a host of challenges -- not only were manufacturers in Asia facing labor and raw materials shortages that made production for many companies more difficult, but prices for shipping containers were rapidly climbing and fully-loaded ships were getting delayed.

And once products finally made it onto ships, she said, the typical time at sea had gone up.

Meanwhile, the domestic ground transportation that's vital to moving imported goods across the United States was struggling too, hit by problems including shortages of the trailers used to transport shipping containers and of truck drivers.

"All kinds of supply chain hurdles were coming together in a way that no one could have predicted," said Pitts.

Realizing that would create new problems once she actually got her products to the U.S., Pitt did something she'd never done before — transporting some of the elves and other holiday inventory from China by air.

For the first time, the company put some shipments on planes in June, using five cargo planes for about 100,000 units in total.

Overall, Pitts estimated, 10% to 15% of her company's holiday inventory this year will have arrived via plane and the remainder by ship.

"It was extraordinarily expensive," she said. "But backordering and missing Christmas were not options for us. The Lumistella Company is Christmas, so we had to deliver."

Struggling to make it into stores

Getting the elves that had arrived via ships onto land was another problem.

Pitts knew that West Coast ports in the United States were clogged with thousands of containers waiting to be unloaded. So the company decided to bypass those ports, which it was lucky enough to only use for some of its shipping in the first place, and have its products arrive at the less congested East Coast ports at Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Both of these ports were also closer to Lumistella's headquarters in Atlanta.

Luckily for Pitts, the early mitigation strategies enabled the company to get all of its holiday inventory into the U.S. by the end of September, with none of it still stuck on ships.

The elves have all made it to warehouses, where many are awaiting transport to distribution centers operated by retailers.

But the elves' complicated journey is still not over.

Now, Pitts has been faced with figuring out how to get the pallets of products out of the warehouses, on the road and to retailers. Those warehouses, which are run by third-party providers, are getting overloaded and there's been no way to quickly clear them because of the ongoing trucker shortage, she said.

"I had one partner who is 141% above capacity at one warehouse," said Pitts. Trucks are needed every step of the way on the land transportation of the products.

For instance, if the goods do make it out, they are first sent to retailers' large distribution centers on long-distance freight trucks. From there, products are typically earmarked for delivery to individual stores, again on trucks. "It's enormously frustrating," said Pitts.

She's thought about using planes again to transport products from the warehouses to retailers' distribution centers. But that won't work, she noted, because it's not as if the planes can be flown right up to a distribution center — a truck is still necessary at some point.

About 70% of the inventory has made it to retailers so far, said Pitts. That number is typically closer to 100% by now. She anticipates the remaining 30% will get to retailers in time for the holidays, although exactly when is unclear.

DENVER, Co. — Sean Holland has driven the same route for work every day for more than 20 years. He says it hasn't gotten boring yet.

"It's not your 9 to 5 job," Holland said. "If that's what you're looking for, this isn't it."

Holland is a UPS driver in suburban Denver. He took the job in the early '90s, and since 1995, he's been driving the same truck: Bertha.

"I've had her, next month, it will be 26 years," Holland said. "The old girl, she comes out full to the gills every day. I get rid of all that, and then we do another pickup run in the afternoon and fill it back up. There's a sense of accomplishment that goes along with that."

Holland and delivery drivers across the country were deemed essential workers at the height of the pandemic. Stay-at-home orders forced people to use delivery services at a higher rate. U.S. parcel volume went up 37% from 2019 to 2020.

UPS is hiring 100,000 seasonal workers this year to keep up with the demand as the holidays approach. But they are competing with other major companies in nearly every industry.

"We have a very robust recruiting approach," said Jeff Bloedorn, director of human resources at UPS. "We are heavily into the social media and making people aware of what UPS offers."

The company is starting some new hires at $23 an hour, with a $2,000 signing bonus. Bloedorn says there are other incentives, many of which can't be measured with dollars and cents.

"It’s a great teamwork atmosphere," Bloedorn said. "[People] like the hustle and bustle of moving all the packages... It’s a career that allows a person to take care of themselves and their family."

The pandemic has shifted a younger generation's opinion of work. A UPS survey found 9 in 10 millennials are "more open" to the types of jobs they'd accept.

But experts warn the life of a truck driver is still a difficult sell.

"I always ask my students this," said Dr. Robert Novack, a professor at Penn State University. "'How many of you would like to grow up and be a truck driver?' None of 'em."

Dr. Novack says the under-35 crowd is looking for fulfillment and purpose from a potential career. That can be tough to find from the driver's seat of a delivery truck.

"You see the rigs on the road, and as a car driver, they're an annoyance because they're big, they get in the way," Dr. Novack said. "We're working with some companies on trying to make the job of being a driver a little bit more suited to their needs. You know, treating them almost like an asset."

Holland agrees that the job can be tough.

"It's long hours, but like I said, it's rewarding," he said.

"I actually met my wife on my route out here," Holland said. "She was one of my customers for a couple years before we started dating, and ultimately got married, and now we’re married 21 years. You know, I've had dead-end jobs. And, yeah, I've been doing the same thing for almost 29 years now."

Holland smiled.

"But I love it."

With holidays approaching, health experts said some festivities can start to return to a sense of normalcy — but they also warned that COVID-19 isn't defeated yet.

Experts said Sunday that outdoor trick-or-treating — particularly for children who are vaccinated — should be fine this year.

"It's a good time to reflect on why it's important to get vaccinated. But go out there and enjoy Halloween as well as the other holidays that will be coming up," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN Sunday.

Dr. Megan Ranney, associate dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University, cautioned against indoor Halloween parties for children too young to be vaccinated and encouraged parents in areas with high virus transmission to mask their children, but agreed that Halloween fun could go on this year.

The big picture for COVID-19 in the U.S. is looking a little brighter as new infections and hospitalizations decline. The average rate of daily new cases has dropped below 100,000, to 93,814 as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Fauci said he would like to see new daily cases well below 10,000, but the decline is a start. "Hopefully it's going to continue to go in that trajectory downward," he said.

While conditions are improving and the sense of normalcy is expanding, Fauci warned that the fight against the pandemic is not over.

"We have to just be careful that we don't prematurely declare victory in many respects. We still have around 68 million people who are eligible to be vaccinated that have not yet gotten vaccinated," Fauci said.

About 56.4% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Although experts don't know the exact percentage of vaccination coverage needed to control the spread of the virus, Fauci has said the "vast majority" of the population will need to get vaccinated.

"We're not there yet," Dr. William Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said. "This virus can continue in those places where vaccination rates are low."

The potential for spread is especially concerning as winter holidays — often accompanied by gatherings and travel — approach.

Health experts have promoted vaccination requirements for air travel this holiday season; and while Fauci declined to offer his stance on the matter Sunday, Professor of Emergency Medicine at Oregon Health & Science University Dr. Esther Choo weighed in.

"Now is the time for mandates for airlines," Choo said. "It should happen quickly because people are making plans right now for our fall and winter holidays."

Death isn't the only terrible outcome with COVID-19

It's important for people to understand "not dying from COVID is a great thing, but that isn't the only metric we should be using," Michigan emergency room physician Dr. Rob Davidson said Saturday.

He said at his hospital, some COVID-19 patients have been on a ventilator for more than a month, and some have endured invasive procedures to stay alive.

Even if they recover physically, some COVID-19 survivors end up suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD, due to time spent in the ICU, Davidson said.

A study published in February found 30% of COVID-19 survivors experienced PTSD, which is a psychological illness that usually occurs after someone has a life-threatening experience.

The virus can also have negative effects on pregnant people infected during their third trimester and their babies, research shows.

Between March and September of last year, symptomatic pregnant people at one Israeli hospital had higher rates of gestational diabetes, a lower white blood cell count, and experienced heavier bleeding during their delivery. Their babies also experienced more breathing problems, a research team reported in the Journal of Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine.

The study has limitations since it only looked at women in one hospital, so its findings may not be true for all people who are pregnant.

Then there is long COVID-19 — when symptoms can last months after infection.

A large study published last month showed more than one-third of COVID-19 patients suffered symptoms three to six months after getting infected. Some had multiple, long-lasting complications.

Breathing problems, abdominal symptoms such as abdominal pain, diarrhea, fatigue, pain, anxiety and depression were among the most common issues reported.

Accompanying data showed as many as 46% of children and young adults between the ages of 10 and 22 had experienced at least one symptom in the six months after recovering.

Vaccines for kids under 5 may not come until next year

The Food and Drug Administration is considering a proposal to expand vaccines to children as young as 5, and those younger may not have a dose authorized for them until early next year, former FDA commissioner, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, said Sunday.

The FDA is likely to ask for more data and perhaps for studies involving more children, because it is a new vaccine and a new virus, Gottlieb told CBS.

"And that could push it into 2022. Previously we had talked about trying to have that data available before the end of this year, which could have prompted an authorization perhaps by the end of the year, at least in kids ages 2-4. I think that it's more likely that it slips into the first quarter of next year at the very least, but not too far into next year," said Gottlieb, who is also on Pfizer's board.

The FDA has called a meeting of its independent vaccine advisers, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC), for Oct. 26 to discuss pediatric vaccines. Pfizer has submitted data and a formal request for authorization for its one-third dose vaccine for use in children 5-11. But Gottlieb said he expects VRBPAC to also discuss what might be needed for authorization for the youngest children.

Having more information to consider can raise public confidence in the vaccines, Gottlieb said. He is already confident and plans to vaccinate his own young daughters.

"There's a lot of parents like me that, as soon as the vaccines available for their children, are going to go out and get their kids vaccinated, that see the benefits of vaccination," he said. "There's a lot of parents who still have a lot of questions around vaccination. I think for them, they should have a conversation with their pediatrician to try to get comfortable with the idea of vaccinating kids."

Gottlieb said he thinks it will be years before the CDC recommends making COVID-19 vaccines part of the regular childhood vaccination schedule, which would open the door to school districts mandating them.

"I think it's a very long way off. Certainly, CDC's going to look at children ages 12-17 differently than 5-11," he said.

Weary retailers continue to battle pandemic uncertainty as the delta variant causes new spikes in coronavirus infections. But for now, at least, expectations for a merry holiday season remain intact.

What's happening: Data published Thursday is expected to confirm that U.S. retail sales declined for the second straight month in August.

But new forecasts from Deloitte, Bain & Company and Mastercard predict a huge sales boom in the coming months, the most important time of the year for retailers.

Deloitte estimates that holiday sales will increase between 7% and 9% in 2021 as vaccinations help shoppers feel more comfortable venturing out to spend some of the cash they've been hoarding.

"A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

The consulting firm expects online sales to jump between 11% and 15% year-over-year, reaching up to $218 billion.

Mastercard, for its part, sees U.S. retail sales rising 7.4%. While online shopping could rally 7.6%, in-store shopping is expected to increase by 6.6% compared to 2020. Bain & Company is also calling for a 7% sales growth rate in November and December.

"The pandemic has impacted nearly every inch of the retail industry," said Aaron Cheris, the head of Bain & Company's Americas Retail practice. "However, heading into this holiday season, we also see important tailwinds for nominal retail growth, including boosts from inflation, rebounding employment, healthy savings rates and wage growth."

But wait: Supply chains remain badly tangled, causing shipping costs to soar. Some companies worry that empty shelves and shortages of in-demand products could dampen the mood.

"The demand is going to be there," MGA Entertainment CEO Isaac Larian told CNN Business late last month. "What is not going to be there is the product to fill the demand."

Mastercard thinks retailers will try to get around supply chain concerns, as well as persistent difficulties in hiring workers, by offering earlier holiday promotions in stores and online — particularly for electronics and clothing items.

"This holiday season will be defined by early shopping," Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard, said in a statement.

Investor insight: A spending surge would be good news for retail stocks, which shot up earlier this year but have been caught in a holding pattern in recent months. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF is up 45% year-to-date, but has shed 4.4% in the third quarter.

U.S. retail sales for August will provide a crucial look at how spending amidst the delta variant is holding up in advance of the holiday season. A consensus estimate from Briefing.com predicts retail sales dropped 0.7% after declining 1.1% in July.

Data released earlier this week from China showed that retail sales struggled in August, increasing just 2.5% compared to a year earlier. That was much weaker than expected and a dramatic slowdown from the 8.5% uptick recorded in July.

The makers of some of the most popular toys in the United States sounded the alarm this week about the global shipping crisis and labor shortages limiting their ability to keep stores stocked throughout the fall holiday shopping season.

Two leading toy company CEOs who recently spoke with CNN Business said they fear their supply chain woes and the resulting inflated prices will mean many children won't get the toys they want for Christmas. That's why they're warning parents to get their holiday shopping done early.

"There is going to be a major shortage of toy products this year," MGA Entertainment CEO Isaac Larian told CNN Business. "The demand is going to be there. What is not going to be there is the product to fill the demand."

Larian's privately held company owns and distributes Little Tikes, Rainbow High dolls, Bratz dolls and LOL Surprise!, one of the hottest toy brands of the last few years and the top toy of 2020, according to NPD Group, a leading market research company.

He admitted to being "very frustrated" this week with shipping container companies such as Maersk, who he and other toy industry insiders accused of taking advantage of the global shortage on freight containers by dramatically raising their prices.

"The container that cost $3,200 last year is now $22,000," Larian said. "The installation of raw material and labor has gone up exponentially. We've seen a 23% increase in cost of product in China without the logistics. That is going to translate to higher prices with retail."

Even after paying more to get his products to U.S. shores, Larian said a trucker shortage is preventing him from getting his toys into warehouses and ultimately onto store shelves.

"We've had hundreds of containers on 46 ships sitting in the ocean at the port of LA and Long Beach for the past 30 days," he said. "There are people to unload it, but there are not enough trucks to pick it up."

Basic Fun CEO Jay Foreman expressed a similar frustration this week. Foreman's privately held company owns and distributes Fisher Price toys, Tonka trucks, K'nex and Care Bears among other brands. He said some of his products have been stuck on shipping containers "when those containers can be found." Other Basic Fun toys, he said, are "stacking up" in factories in China, making it harder for him to keep stores stocked in the coming weeks.

"You're going to find various times during the holiday season where the store shelves are going to have empty holes in them," Foreman told CNN Business. "You're going to see constant outages of the key products that consumers are looking for."

A problem, big and small

Executives at Hasbro and Mattel, two of the three largest toymakers in the world along with Lego, told analysts in late July that their companies have secured enough shipping containers to keep up with demand this holiday season, even though they'll have to raise prices to compensate for higher shipping costs.

Consumers can expect price increases of 5% to 10%, according to Jim Silver, CEO of trade publication "Toys, Tots, Pets & More."

"We have the inventories to meet the demand that we need for the second half of the year," Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner said during the company's latest earnings call. "It's a little different than past years where direct import could play a bigger role than it has in the past. But again, working with our retailers around the world, we feel, most importantly, we want to meet the high demand."

The toy industry landscape is yet another example of the largest companies winning big and smaller companies losing out during the pandemic recovery, according to industry analyst Neil Saunders, managing director of the retail segment for GlobalData. Saunders said shipping companies cater more to their largest clients, including toymakers Hasbro and Mattel and retail giants Walmart, Target and Amazon.

"The bigger companies that have more money, more economic clout because they place more orders, definitely have more scope to mitigate [supply chain constraints]," Saunders told CNN Business. "Smaller chains just don't have that economic power."

Both Foreman and Larian expressed doubt that even the largest toy makers can keep up with holiday season demand this year due to supply chain limitations.

"Whoever is telling you it's only the small toy companies' problem is full of it," Larian said. "MGA is the fourth-largest toy company. We are not small. The beauty of MGA is we are private, so I can talk to you openly."

Toy sales have continued to flourish throughout the pandemic as parents turn to dolls, Legos and board games to keep their kids entertained while many have been forced to spend more time at home. Pandemic conditions and stimulus money from the federal government resulted in a holiday sales boom last year. James Zahn, senior editor of "Toy Insider," a leading trade publication, said he expects similar success this year provided the Delta variant doesn't force retailers to shutter and stores can keep toys stocked.

"Families have money to spend, and if the toys are available, they're going to buy them," Zahn told CNN Business. "No matter what, kids will still play and parents will do whatever they can to do right by their kids."

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Massive spring break crowds, states ending mask mandates, and the loosening of other COVID-19-related restrictions: all are playing a part in the country’s latest climb in COVID-19 cases.

“In fact, we have settled at a very high level of daily deaths, nearly 1,000, and now, we're starting to see cases go up again and starting to see hospital admissions go up again,” said Dr. Vivek Murthy. “This is deeply concerning because every time we've seen it in the past, it's led to another surge."

More than 30 million people in the U.S. have been diagnosed with COVID-19 since the pandemic began last year. After cases declined in February, just in the past two weeks, there was a 20 percent jump in the daily number of COVID-19 cases, an average of 66,000 new cases every day.

“A fourth wave may be imminent,” said George Washington University’s Dr. Amanda Castel, who is an infectious disease epidemiologist.

Dr. Castel said spring break revelers, as well as gatherings and travel from the Easter and Passover holidays, could be tough on the nation’s COVID-19 response in the next few weeks, potentially spreading more mutations of the virus, known as variants.

“It's really important to note that we also do very limited surveillance for the variants in the United States. So, what we're seeing is really just the tip of the iceberg,” Dr. Castel said. “And we know that certain variants, like the U.K. variant, are more easily spread from person to person and may potentially lead to more severe infections.”

Beyond April looms another holiday, Memorial Day, that Dr. Castel says could lead to a potential uptick in COVID-19 cases and a possible fifth wave. She said what happens will depend on how many people get vaccinated by then.

“That's why it's so critical that we need to encourage people to get vaccinated as soon as possible, because we really are in a race, essentially, between the variants and vaccination," Dr. Castel explained.

It’s a race where the finish line hasn’t been crossed yet.