SALINA, Kan. — Joe Kejr knows wheat.

"Not a real big one. Sometimes, you can see those in Kansas up to 20," said Kejr.

He's been farming it for quite a while.

"I graduated high school in '77 and kind of been farming since. It's kind of hard to believe how many years that's been, " he said.

Quite a while. You could say he knows a little bit about farming, especially wheat. The recent issues with the supply chain can keep him up at night.

I asked him which supply chain issue is most worrisome to him right now.

"Well, that probably changes by the hour, actually," he said.

Supply chain issues have been wreaking havoc on the farming industry for months, if not longer.

"It might be hard to get some of the fertilizers or parts that we need or even a tire that goes out on our air seater. You don't know if you're going to be able to get it," said Kejr.

But there could be an even bigger cloud hanging over the global supply of wheat – and other foods.

"You have 19-20% of the world's population with three times the amount of food that they need," said Jack Buffington.

Buffington is a supply chain economics professor at the University of Denver, and he's talking about China.

From this year's crop, China is expected to have 60% of the world's rice reserves, 51% of wheat, and 69% of corn. That's a lot of food.

"The food market is a global market, and prices are based on global markets, and for us, it translates into higher prices,"

The UN food price tracker reached an all-time high of 159.7 in March and dropped to just 158.5 in April, 30% higher than it was this time last year. That resulted in 5% inflation on a loaf of bread in 2022 in the US.

That's tough for working Americans trying to put food on the table. It's tough for Joe too. He doesn't have a lot of say about the price of wheat.

"We farm so we can help feed the world. You know, we care about people," Kejr said.

Demand for U.S.-made goods is surging. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting a record $157 billion in farm exports during the fiscal year 2021.

“In 2020, beef exports equated to roughly $270 per head. In 2021, taken at USDA’s number, it equates to more like $280 to $300 per head,” said Billy Schmitz, who works as a risk manager at a feedlot in Colorado.

The lot where Schmitz works, Five Rivers Cattle Feed, cares for 80,000 cattle. Based on his projections, the increase in exports could mean anywhere from $800,000 to $2.4 million of extra in revenue this year.

“Things have very much improved [since COVID first began],” he said.

Experts say much of the bump comes from China’s involvement in the U.S. market. In 2018, China only committed to purchasing $9.1 billion in exports from the United States, but this year, they have committed $38 billion after former President Donald Trump signed a phase one trade deal with the country in January of 2020.

“We kind of had these adverse conditions [because of COVID] that led to government support,” said the USDA’s chief economist, Seth Meyer. “[We’re] exchanging those for market-based dollars.”

Exports affect multiple parts of the economy. Not only does it contribute to the Gross Domestic Product, but it increases spending among consumers: helpful to small businesses that endured hardships throughout the pandemic.

“It provides us with a bit of relief, not only as cattle producers, but as farm and ranch families, too,” said Schmitz.

2021’s projection marks a steep increase from years of fluctuating export numbers, as well as the highest surplus since 2017.

In 2015, the USDA reported $139.8 billion in exports, $129.6 billion in 2016, $140.2 billion in 2017, $143.4 billion in 2018, $135.5 billion in 2019, and $135.7 billion in 2020.