What is the 'great replacement' theory & how is it connected to the Buffalo shooting?

Updated: 11:57 PM EDT May 16, 2022

Following Saturday's deadly shooting rampage in Buffalo, N.Y., a 180-page purported manifesto attributed to the suspect has surfaced, which outlines the shooter's motives, details how he had been radicalized and how he "planned to kill as many Blacks as possible," according to officials. The manifesto's author also wrote about something called the "Great Replacement."Sister station KCRA 3 's Brittany Johnson 'Gets the Facts' on what this theory is all about.What is the theory about?The theory has different iterations but in a nutshell, the "great replacement" theory, which is sometimes called "replacement theory," is the belief that your group is being replaced or extinct because another group is growing in number and you see this other group as a threat to your group's existence.The theory goes back centuriesAccording to the Anti-Defamation League, the theory goes back centuries but was popularized by French Author Renaud Camus when he published an essay titled, "Le Grand Remplacement" or "The Great Replacement" in 2011. The term was coined when Camus warned of "reverse colonization" and explained native White Europeans are being replaced by non-White immigrants from Africa and the Middle East. He believes this trend will lead to the "ethnic and civilizational substitution" of the White race in Europe and the West.Great Replacement Theory linked to Buffalo shooting The shooting in Buffalo, NY has been connected to this theory because it was repeatedly referenced in a 180-page document linked to the reported shooter. The author used racist, anti-immigrant and anti-semitic beliefs, and wrote about how he planned to "kill as many blacks as possible," according to NBC News.Great Replacement theory linked to previous mass shootings and terrorist attacks, here are a few:In 2019, a suspect investigators said subscribed to the great replacement theory killed 51 people at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. That same year the man suspected of targeting Latinos in an El Paso Walmart and who is on trial for killing 23 people, who authorities attribute a four-page racist screed that decried a Hispanic "invasion" of Texas and the U.S., and called for ethnic and racial segregation, also subscribed to the great replacement theory. The suspect in the 2018 shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue "made statements regarding genocide and his desire to kill Jewish people" during the attack, according to prosecutors. Eleven people were killed in the shooting in what the ADL has said is the "deadliest attack on the Jewish community in the U.S."Sister station KCRA 3 spoke with Assistant Professor Milan Obaidi of the University of Oslo in Norway, where he said the great replacement theory has also been used to carry out the 2011 Norway attacks. Obaidi researches violent extremism and radicalization. Sister station KCRA 3 spoke with Obaidi about a recent publication he authored with three other professors titled "The Great Replacement Conspiracy: How the Perceived Ousting of Whites Can Evoke Violent Extremism and Islamophobia."Q: What did you study in relation to this publication?Obaidi: In these studies, we looked at intentions to commit acts of violence toward another group. We didn't look at an actual act of violence, you know that is it clearly and practically impossible. In psychology we usually rely on attitudes, measuring people's attitudes and intentions. So yes, in these studies, we persistently found a link between the idea that your group is being replaced, and people's willingness to support or express extreme attitudes toward other groups. ... The implication of this theory is that it may legitimize violence, because it specifically portrays one group as being a victim of, of being under existential threat, and then it justifies violence as a necessary means to actually avert such threats. It {the theory} justifies the use of violence, because one group is being seen as a victim of being extinct by another or being replaced, and then violence becomes a means to actually prevent this. So, people who believe in this theory, do believe that they will be extinct and then they use violence to justify this or to avert this from happening.Obaidi: These studies were conducted in the Scandinavian context in Norway in Denmark. So, we basically looked at these in these studies, whether the perception that your group is being replaced by another group. With most of it, people also express negative attitudes, but also extreme intentions toward the group that they perceived as replacing their group. We used experiments, but also we run three surveys in these experiments. People are shown video clips of Norwegian TV where they were shown that in Norway in 20 years there will be a large number of this particular group of people and they will actually exceed the number of living Norwegians in certain areas in 20 years and then we were looking at how people would respond to this idea that their group will be shrinking and another group will be increasing in size. We found that the people who were in these replacement, treatment, or conditions also expressed more Islamophobic attitudes toward Muslim minorities in the regional context.Q: Is there always a direct link between believing in this theory and then carrying out an act of violence?Obaidi: It's also important to emphasize I think, that yes, maybe a lot of people believe in this theory, but not everyone would actually do something like, go and shoot other people. So there's not a not always direct link, because then we would probably have a lot of people going around shooting people. I think there are a large number of people who do believe and I mean, we know that the public, mainstream politicians, and media personalities, have touted these kinds of ideas. But it is so important to say that not every person who believes in it would do something such as going and shooting other people. Q: What is the discussion we should be having about this?Obaidi: A discussion would probably whether we see more of these kinds of attacks. Based on previous attacks, we know that there have been a lot of some of these attacks, they've been just copycatting other attackers, and they've been quite heavily inspired by previous attacks. And some of the tactics are quite similar. For example, the Christchurch attack, he was live-streaming his attack. And the same thing happened with the Norwegian attempt terror attack a couple of years ago in Norway, and we saw it Saturday in Buffalo. So there's clearly this group of young, certainly young people who are inspired by each other. My worry is probably, or maybe, a lot of people, whether we will see something similar because it is inspiring other people because this is what happened in recent years. I think that is probably something that most people are worried about these days.

Twitter has permanently suspended President Donald Trump's account two days after five people died following violent protests at the U.S. Capitol Building.

"After a close review of recent Tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account and the context around them we have permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence," Twitter said.

When it comes to the White House and POTUS accounts, Twitter said in an email to EW Scripps Friday evening that they won't suspend those two accounts, but "will take action to limit their use."

"As we’ve said, using another account to try to evade a suspension is against our rules," Twitter said in a statement. "We have taken steps to enforce this with regard to recent Tweets from the @POTUS account. For government accounts, such as @POTUS and @WhiteHouse, we will not suspend those accounts permanently but will take action to limit their use."

On Friday, Twitter also suspended accounts they say are “solely dedicated to sharing QAnon content.”

The accounts included General Michael Flynn, Trump attorney Sidney Powell, and 8kun co-owner Ron Watkins.

QAnon is a group of loosely connected conspiracy theories associated with the far-right on the political spectrum. The president has retweeted some of these baseless conspiracies.

In a statement to NBC and Buzzfeed News, Twitter said “the account(s) has/have been suspended in line with our policy on Coordinated Harmful Activity. We’ve been clear that we will take strong enforcement action on behavior that has the potential to lead to offline harm, and given the renewed potential for violence surrounding this type of behavior in the coming days, we will permanently suspend accounts that are solely dedicated to sharing QAnon content.”

Flynn is Trump’s former National Security Advisor who pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI. He was recently pardoned by President Trump. In a video posted to Twitter in July, Flynn took an oath to QAnon.

Powell was his attorney, as well as working with Trump and the Trump campaign. Both Flynn and Powell are active within the QAnon online community.

Watkins is the administrator of the website 8Kun, formerly known as 8chan, according to Buzzfeed News.

Last summer, Twitter removed thousands of accounts associated with QAnon and blocked trends on the social media site relating to the conspiracies.

According to The Verge and Axios, Reddit banned the Donald Trump subreddit on Friday "for encouraging and glorifying violence" after a violent riot erupted at the US Capitol on Wednesday.

President Trump issued a statement from the now-suspended Team Trump account, stating that in the wake of being banned from Twitter, he will be "building out" his own social media platform.

The Department of Homeland Security warned state and local authorities Friday about an increase in calls for violence online tied to election-related conspiracy theories, according to a law enforcement source.

In an effort to prevent online threats from manifesting in violent acts, DHS issued a public safety notification to reach law enforcement throughout the United States.

"[D]HS is providing awareness of reports regarding an increasing but modest level of activity online calling for violence in response to unsubstantiated claims of fraud related to the 2020 election and the alleged 'reinstatement' of former President Trump," the public safety notification said, according to the source.

The notification was first reported by ABC News.

The warning, which does not contain a specific threat, comes amid a resurgence of false claims about the 2020 election, pushed in part by Mike Lindell, MyPillow CEO and a close ally of former President Donald Trump, who has emerged as one of the most vocal proponents of these conspiracy theories.

"As public visibility of the narratives increases, we are concerned about more calls to violence. Reporting indicates that the timing of these actives may occur during August 2021, although we lack information on specific plots or planned actions," the notification says, according to the source.

For weeks, the federal government has been aware of online narratives focused on reinstatement, particularly on platforms associated with promoting conspiracy theories, like QAnon, and forums where extremists tend to engage, the source said.

While "modest," there is a concern that those conspiracy theories are being "woven into calls for violence," the source added, pointing to the need for greater awareness of the issue throughout the U.S.

In the current threat environment, DHS is especially concerned that lone offenders and small groups of individuals would potentially view these narratives as justification to act out violently, according to the source.

Some of the online rhetoric directly references Jan. 6. There are also calls for violence in Washington, D.C., and state capitols across the country, the source said.

In additional to the Lindell-backed false claims, another conspiracy theory relates to the upcoming FEMA test of the nationwide emergency alert system, according to the source, with some viewing it as a so-called "go code."

The notification is based on the department's "assessment of the current threat environment in its similarity to situations to 2020 and 2021 that manifested in acts of violence and destructive behavior by individuals and groups, including the 6 January 2021 breach of the US Capitol," according to the source.

Dissemination of the notification will be followed up with additional meetings between the FBI, DHS and state and local law enforcement to evaluate the threat and assess whether more is needed to mitigate the risk, the source said.

2 charged with plotting to blow up Democratic headquarters in California

Updated: 4:18 AM EDT Jul 16, 2021

Two California men have been charged with plotting to blow up the Democratic Party's headquarters in the state capital, a bombing they hoped would be the first in a series of politically-motivated attacks, federal prosecutors said Thursday. The pair used multiple messaging apps to plan to attack targets they associated with Democrats after the November 2020 presidential election, the U.S. Attorney's Office said in a statement. Their first intended target was the John L. Burton Democratic Headquarters in Sacramento, prosecutors said."According to the indictment, the defendants planned to use incendiary devices to attack their targets and hoped their attacks would prompt a movement," the statement said. Ian Benjamin Rogers, 45, and Jarrod Copeland, 37, each face multiple charges including conspiracy to destroy by fire or explosive a building used or in affecting interstate commerce, prosecutors said. Rogers, of Napa, is charged with additional weapons violations, including one count of possession of unregistered destructive devices, and three counts of possession of machine guns. Copeland, of Vallejo, is charged with an additional count of destruction of records.It wasn't known Thursday evening if the men have attorneys who could speak on their behalf. "I want to blow up a democrat building bad," Rogers wrote, according to the indictment unsealed Thursday in San Francisco federal court. Copeland responded, "I agree" and "Plan attack," the indictment says. In late December 2020, Copeland told Rogers he contacted an anti-government militia group to gather support for their movement, according to court documents. In one exchange, Rogers wrote to Copeland, "after the 20th we go to war," meaning that they would initiate acts of violence after Joe Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021, the court papers say.On Jan. 15, law enforcement officers searched Rogers's home and seized a cache of weapons, including 45 to 50 firearms, thousands of rounds of ammunition, and five pipe bombs, prosecutors said. Copeland is accused of attempting to destroy evidence of the plan after Rogers' Jan. 15 arrest. Copeland was arrested Wednesday and made an initial court appearance Thursday. He's scheduled to appear in court again on July 20 for a detention hearing. Rogers is scheduled to appear in court July 30 for a status conference.If convicted on all charges, each defendant faces a maximum of 20 years in prison, officials said.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. —

Two California men have been charged with plotting to blow up the Democratic Party's headquarters in the state capital, a bombing they hoped would be the first in a series of politically-motivated attacks, federal prosecutors said Thursday.

The pair used multiple messaging apps to plan to attack targets they associated with Democrats after the November 2020 presidential election, the U.S. Attorney's Office said in a statement. Their first intended target was the John L. Burton Democratic Headquarters in Sacramento, prosecutors said.

"According to the indictment, the defendants planned to use incendiary devices to attack their targets and hoped their attacks would prompt a movement," the statement said.

Ian Benjamin Rogers, 45, and Jarrod Copeland, 37, each face multiple charges including conspiracy to destroy by fire or explosive a building used or in affecting interstate commerce, prosecutors said.

AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File

Rogers, of Napa, is charged with additional weapons violations, including one count of possession of unregistered destructive devices, and three counts of possession of machine guns. Copeland, of Vallejo, is charged with an additional count of destruction of records.

It wasn't known Thursday evening if the men have attorneys who could speak on their behalf.

"I want to blow up a democrat building bad," Rogers wrote, according to the indictment unsealed Thursday in San Francisco federal court. Copeland responded, "I agree" and "Plan attack," the indictment says.

In late December 2020, Copeland told Rogers he contacted an anti-government militia group to gather support for their movement, according to court documents.

In one exchange, Rogers wrote to Copeland, "after the 20th we go to war," meaning that they would initiate acts of violence after Joe Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021, the court papers say.

On Jan. 15, law enforcement officers searched Rogers's home and seized a cache of weapons, including 45 to 50 firearms, thousands of rounds of ammunition, and five pipe bombs, prosecutors said.

Copeland is accused of attempting to destroy evidence of the plan after Rogers' Jan. 15 arrest.

Copeland was arrested Wednesday and made an initial court appearance Thursday. He's scheduled to appear in court again on July 20 for a detention hearing. Rogers is scheduled to appear in court July 30 for a status conference.

If convicted on all charges, each defendant faces a maximum of 20 years in prison, officials said.